Every piece here follows the same shape: what I paid, what the situation is, what the people who cover the team are saying, why I took him there instead of at his ADP, and how he fits the build. Once the season started, the pieces also check the pick against real box scores.
Best ball is not about beating ADP. It is about finding value around it. So the exposure numbers are the honest part — if I say I like someone, you can see how many of my teams he is actually on.
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Kamario Taylor, QB Mississippi State
The top-scoring quarterback in our data, with 14 touchdown passes in four games. Alabama comes to Starkville at noon Saturday, and I have him on one team.
6% exposure · ADP 19.2 · my board 11th
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Ousmane Kromah, RB Florida State
A touchdown in every game and 6.2 yards a carry, scoring like the RB14 after going as the 48th back. Virginia’s run defense is next.
19% exposure · ADP 127.9 · my board 99th
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Byrum Brown, QB Auburn
Forty percent of Auburn’s carries and a rushing touchdown in three of four games. Saturday he plays at Tennessee, against another quarterback I own.
25% exposure · ADP 23.8 · my board 24th
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Jamal Roberts, RB Missouri
Two-thirds of the running back carries while Ahmad Hardy is out. The workload is real; the yards per carry are the question, with Florida up next.
19% exposure · ADP 67.0 · my board 55th
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Nate Sheppard, RB Duke
The highest-scoring running back in our data through two weeks, on two of my sixteen teams. The accountability piece.
13% exposure · ADP 17.2 · my board 29th
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Cam Edwards, RB Michigan State
ESPN’s season page says zero carries. The box scores say 48 carries, three touchdowns and half of Michigan State’s rushes.
38% exposure · ADP 123.9 · my board 138th
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Faizon Brandon, QB Tennessee
My most-drafted quarterback, taken 15 picks after ADP. Seven total touchdowns in two starts, with Kennesaw State next.
50% exposure · ADP 136.8 · my board 193rd
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Daniel Hill, RB Alabama
A 16th-round pick with three touchdowns, who took 45% of Alabama’s carries at Kentucky.
50% exposure · ADP 199.0 · my board 228th
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T.J. Moore, WR Clemson
A third of Clemson’s catches, and ordinary production so far. The role is there; the offense is not yet.
31% exposure · ADP 129.6 · my board 169th
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Chris Marshall, WR Arkansas
Led Arkansas in catches in both games, still no touchdown. The volume is what I drafted.
31% exposure · ADP 232.1 · my board 53rd
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Ethan Davis, TE Tennessee
Two touchdowns in two games, then a torn ACL. What a 25% bet on one tight end should teach.
25% exposure · ADP 237.9 · out for the season
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Jeremiah Hasley, TE Duke
Duke lost its top five receivers. The tight end who caught 40 balls last year is still there at pick 160.
31% exposure · ADP 156.4 · my board 57th
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J'Koby Williams, RB Texas Tech
He is on four of my sixteen teams and my own board has him 240th. The one where I argue with my model.
25% exposure · ADP 154.6 · my board 240th