CFB Best Ball · Favorites
The highest-scoring running back in our data through two weeks, and he is on two of my sixteen teams. He cost a second-round pick. I should have paid it more often.
2026 So Far · 2 games
RUSH
59-374
6.3 per carry
TD
5
3 rush, 2 catch
REC
8-60
HALF-PPR
37.7
per game, RB1
What I Paid · Underdog
ADP
17.2
RB11, round 2
MY AVG PICK
15.5
right on ADP
EXPOSURE
2 of 16
both in The Tailgate
MY BOARD
29th
set Sept. 3
Nate Sheppard has 75.4 half-PPR points in two games, 37.7 a game. That is first among the 158 running backs in Underdog's player pool who have played two games in our box-score data, seven points a game clear of the next one, Utah's Wayshawn Parker at 30.6.
I have him on two teams. This is the accountability piece in the series.
Week 1, Tulane, a 17-3 win: 35 carries for 227 yards and two touchdowns, 3 catches for 19 yards, one lost fumble. 36.1 points (ESPN box score, Sept. 5, 2026).
Week 2, at Illinois, a 31-27 win: 24 carries for 147 yards and a touchdown, plus 5 catches for 41 yards and two receiving touchdowns. 39.3 points. CBS Sports (Sept. 12, 2026) reports Duke came back from 10 points down in the second quarter and took the lead for good in the third.
Sheppard has 59 of Duke's 84 rushing attempts, 70%: 35 of 49 against Tulane and 24 of 35 at Illinois. He also has 8 of Duke's 28 catches, 29%.
How I count it: his carries and catches divided by Duke's team totals in the ESPN box scores. College stats count sacks and kneels as runs, so his share of designed running back carries is higher still.
That is as close to a whole backfield as you see. And Duke leans on it. The Blue Devils ran 49 times and threw 28 against Tulane, and ran 35 times and threw 22 at Illinois, per the box scores.
Last season he ran for 1,132 yards and 11 touchdowns and caught 37 passes, per ESPN. The receiving work is the part that turns a good back into a best ball one, and it has already shown up twice in the end zone.
Both wins came against teams that beat Duke last season.
In 2025, Illinois came to Durham ranked 11th and won 45-19 (ESPN). A week later Duke lost 34-27 at Tulane (ESPN). Tulane went on to win the American and reach the College Football Playoff. Duke went on to win the ACC.
One thing to be precise about: neither Tulane nor Illinois was ranked at kickoff this year, per ESPN. They are still good programs. CBS notes the loss ended Illinois' 10-game non-conference winning streak dating to 2023. But "beat two ranked teams" would be wrong, and "beat the two teams that beat you last year" is right.
Sheppard carried the ball 59 times in those two games. The production did not come from a soft schedule.
His ADP is 17.2, a second-round pick. I took him at 15 and 16 in the two drafts I have him. My board had him 29th, so it did not argue for more.
In the fourteen drafts without him, my picks in that same range (13 through 24) went to quarterbacks seven times, including Byrum Brown four times, and to Cam Coleman three times. In a superflex format the quarterback lean is defensible, and Brown is scoring 24.4 a game. Coleman at 12.8 a game, three times, is the pick I would take back.
Best Ball Playoffs · Duke (bye Week 5)
WEEK 11
at Miami
WEEK 12
vs Clemson
WEEK 13
at Wake Forest
Miami on the road is the hard one. Clemson at home in Week 12 pairs him with T.J. Moore, who is on both of my Sheppard teams.
There is a cost here for another of my favorites. A running back taking 70% of the carries and 29% of the catches leaves less for Jeremiah Hasley, who has 5 catches through two games.
These are Underdog best ball teams. Nothing gets traded or dropped, so the verdict is about what I do in my next drafts at this price.
Thirteen percent on the best back in the data is too little. At pick 17, I was paying for exactly this outcome: a back who gets the whole workload on a team built to run. I should have been on far more than two teams, and I would draft him every time he was there at that price.
If Duke's carry split loosens toward 55 or 60% as the schedule softens (Stanford, then William & Mary), that is game script, not a demotion. I would only worry if it happens in the close games.
CBS reports quarterback Walker Eget hurt his leg in the fourth quarter at Illinois and returned. If he misses time, defenses can stack the box against Sheppard, and his week-to-week ceiling drops.
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Exposure figures from my own Underdog draft exports. ADP from Underdog best ball rankings. Statistics and quotes from published reporting. Nothing here is betting advice, and I am telling you what I did, not what you should do.