NFL · This week's slate
Lines board
Saturday 24 to Monday 26 October 2026 · 13 games, 13 with a DraftKings price, 13 with a Novig price, 13 with a number from us
Built 24 October 2026 at 9:01 PM ET
The slate
Away team above, home team below and marked (H). Scores are our projections. In kickoff order by default; click any column heading to sort by it, and tap a game for the full breakdown.
| Matchup & projected score | Our lean | Novig spread | Novig total | Novig home % | DK spread | DK total | Our total | DK ML | DK home % | Our spread | Our home % | Our fair ML | Gap | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Sunday, October 25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Pittsburgh
25
New Orleans
22
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No lean Line as of 9:01 PM ET
Over 43.5
Novig Pittsburgh −2.5 · O/U 43.5 · home 40%
Books (consensus) Pittsburgh −3 · O/U 43.5 · Pittsburgh 60% to win · 5 books in Details
DK Pittsburgh −3 · O/U 43.5 · Ours Pittsburgh −2.8 · O/U 46.9
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Pittsburgh −2.5 | 43.5 | 40% | Pittsburgh −3 | 43.5 | 46.9 | -162 / +136 | 41% | Pittsburgh −2.8 | 42% | -139 / +139 | +0.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Pittsburgh 25 at New Orleans 22, a total of 46.9 against the market's 43.5. Our spread is Pittsburgh −2.8 against DraftKings' Pittsburgh −3, 0.2 points toward New Orleans. We give New Orleans 42% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 41%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Pittsburgh -139, New Orleans +139, against DraftKings' Pittsburgh -162, New Orleans +136. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. What the big books post
Books (consensus) takes each book’s own spread, total and moneyline, removes that book’s margin, and averages the books quoting the most common line, so its percentages are no-vig chances, not payouts. Odds from The Odds API. Our leanNo lean: our spread and the market's are within 1.5 points of each other. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Cincinnati
25
Baltimore
24
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Baltimore +3 Line as of 9:01 PM ET
Over 46.5
Novig Cincinnati −2.5 · O/U 47.5 · home 41%
Books (consensus) Cincinnati −3 · O/U 46.5 · Cincinnati 58% to win · 5 books in Details
DK Cincinnati −3 · O/U 46.5 · Ours Cincinnati −1.1 · O/U 48.5
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Cincinnati −2.5 | 47.5 | 41% | Cincinnati −3 | 46.5 | 48.5 | -155 / +130 | 42% | Cincinnati −1.1 | 47% | -113 / +113 | +1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Cincinnati 25 at Baltimore 24, a total of 48.5 against the market's 46.5. Our spread is Cincinnati −1.1 against DraftKings' Cincinnati −3, 1.9 points toward Baltimore. We give Baltimore 47% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 42%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Cincinnati -113, Baltimore +113, against DraftKings' Cincinnati -155, Baltimore +130. Baltimore lists Tyler Huntley as its starting quarterback instead of Lamar Jackson; our number accounts for it. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. What the big books post
Books (consensus) takes each book’s own spread, total and moneyline, removes that book’s margin, and averages the books quoting the most common line, so its percentages are no-vig chances, not payouts. Odds from The Odds API. Our leanBaltimore +3: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Cleveland
20
Tennessee
18
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No lean Line as of 9:01 PM ET
No total lean
Novig Cleveland −2.5 · O/U 36.5 · home 45%
Books (consensus) Cleveland −2 · O/U 37 · Cleveland 54% to win · 5 books in Details
DK Cleveland −2.5 · O/U 36.5 · Ours Cleveland −2.3 · O/U 37.8
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Cleveland −2.5 | 36.5 | 45% | Cleveland −2.5 | 36.5 | 37.8 | -130 / +110 | 46% | Cleveland −2.3 | 43% | -131 / +131 | +0.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Cleveland 20 at Tennessee 18, a total of 37.8 against the market's 36.5. Our spread is Cleveland −2.3 against DraftKings' Cleveland −2.5, 0.2 points toward Tennessee. We give Tennessee 43% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 46%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Cleveland -131, Tennessee +131, against DraftKings' Cleveland -130, Tennessee +110. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. What the big books post
Books (consensus) takes each book’s own spread, total and moneyline, removes that book’s margin, and averages the books quoting the most common line, so its percentages are no-vig chances, not payouts. Odds from The Odds API. Our leanNo lean: our spread and the market's are within 1.5 points of each other. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Indianapolis
20
Minnesota
25
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No lean Line as of 9:01 PM ET
Over 41.5
Novig Minnesota −6.5 · O/U 41.5 · home 72%
Books (consensus) Minnesota −6.5 · O/U 41.5 · Minnesota 72% to win · 5 books in Details
DK Minnesota −6.5 · O/U 41.5 · Ours Minnesota −5.5 · O/U 45.4
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Minnesota −6.5 | 41.5 | 72% | Minnesota −6.5 | 41.5 | 45.4 | +250 / -310 | 73% | Minnesota −5.5 | 66% | +193 / -193 | -1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Indianapolis 20 at Minnesota 25, a total of 45.4 against the market's 41.5. Our spread is Minnesota −5.5 against DraftKings' Minnesota −6.5, 1.0 points toward Indianapolis. We give Minnesota 66% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 73%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Indianapolis +193, Minnesota -193, against DraftKings' Indianapolis +250, Minnesota -310. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. What the big books post
Books (consensus) takes each book’s own spread, total and moneyline, removes that book’s margin, and averages the books quoting the most common line, so its percentages are no-vig chances, not payouts. Odds from The Odds API. Our leanNo lean: our spread and the market's are within 1.5 points of each other. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Miami
20
New York
22
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Miami +4.5 Line as of 9:01 PM ET
Over 39.5
Novig New York −4.5 · O/U 39.5 · home 67%
Books (consensus) New York −4.5 · O/U 39.5 · New York 66% to win · 5 books in Details
DK New York −4.5 · O/U 39.5 · Ours New York −1.9 · O/U 42.6
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New York −4.5 | 39.5 | 67% | New York −4.5 | 39.5 | 42.6 | +180 / -218 | 66% | New York −1.9 | 56% | +126 / -126 | -2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Miami 20 at New York 22, a total of 42.6 against the market's 39.5. Our spread is New York −1.9 against DraftKings' New York −4.5, 2.6 points toward Miami. We give New York 56% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 66%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Miami +126, New York -126, against DraftKings' Miami +180, New York -218. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. What the big books post
Books (consensus) takes each book’s own spread, total and moneyline, removes that book’s margin, and averages the books quoting the most common line, so its percentages are no-vig chances, not payouts. Odds from The Odds API. Our leanMiami +4.5: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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New York
16
Houston
25
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No lean Line as of 9:01 PM ET
Under 42.5
Novig Houston −10.5 · O/U 42.5 · home 80%
Books (consensus) Houston −10.5 · O/U 42.5 · Houston 80% to win · 5 books in Details
DK Houston −10 · O/U 42.5 · Ours Houston −9.2 · O/U 40.9
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Houston −10.5 | 42.5 | 80% | Houston −10 | 42.5 | 40.9 | +390 / -520 | 80% | Houston −9.2 | 75% | +308 / -308 | -0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score New York 16 at Houston 25, a total of 40.9 against the market's 42.5. Our spread is Houston −9.2 against DraftKings' Houston −10, 0.8 points toward New York. We give Houston 75% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 80%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads New York +308, Houston -308, against DraftKings' New York +390, Houston -520. New York lists J.J. McCarthy as its starting quarterback instead of Jameis Winston; our number accounts for it. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. What the big books post
Books (consensus) takes each book’s own spread, total and moneyline, removes that book’s margin, and averages the books quoting the most common line, so its percentages are no-vig chances, not payouts. Odds from The Odds API. Our leanNo lean: our spread and the market's are within 1.5 points of each other. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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San Francisco
27
Atlanta
22
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San Francisco −2.5 Line as of 9:01 PM ET
Under 50.5
Novig San Francisco −2.5 · O/U 50.5 · home 42%
Books (consensus) San Francisco −2.5 · O/U 50.5 · San Francisco 57% to win · 5 books in Details
DK San Francisco −2.5 · O/U 50.5 · Ours San Francisco −4.9 · O/U 48.9
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San Francisco −2.5 | 50.5 | 42% | San Francisco −2.5 | 50.5 | 48.9 | -148 / +124 | 43% | San Francisco −4.9 | 36% | -180 / +180 | -2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score San Francisco 27 at Atlanta 22, a total of 48.9 against the market's 50.5. Our spread is San Francisco −4.9 against DraftKings' San Francisco −2.5, 2.4 points toward San Francisco. We give Atlanta 36% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 43%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads San Francisco -180, Atlanta +180, against DraftKings' San Francisco -148, Atlanta +124. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. What the big books post
Books (consensus) takes each book’s own spread, total and moneyline, removes that book’s margin, and averages the books quoting the most common line, so its percentages are no-vig chances, not payouts. Odds from The Odds API. Our leanSan Francisco −2.5: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Tampa Bay
23
Carolina
24
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Tampa Bay +3 Line as of 9:01 PM ET
Over 44.5
Novig Carolina −3.5 · O/U 44.5 · home 59%
Books (consensus) Carolina −3 · O/U 44.5 · Carolina 58% to win · 5 books in Details
DK Carolina −3 · O/U 44.5 · Ours Carolina −1.3 · O/U 47.4
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Carolina −3.5 | 44.5 | 59% | Carolina −3 | 44.5 | 47.4 | +130 / -155 | 58% | Carolina −1.3 | 54% | +116 / -116 | -1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Tampa Bay 23 at Carolina 24, a total of 47.4 against the market's 44.5. Our spread is Carolina −1.3 against DraftKings' Carolina −3, 1.7 points toward Tampa Bay. We give Carolina 54% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 58%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Tampa Bay +116, Carolina -116, against DraftKings' Tampa Bay +130, Carolina -155. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. What the big books post
Books (consensus) takes each book’s own spread, total and moneyline, removes that book’s margin, and averages the books quoting the most common line, so its percentages are no-vig chances, not payouts. Odds from The Odds API. Our leanTampa Bay +3: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Denver
25
Arizona
21
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No lean Line as of 9:01 PM ET
Over 43.5
Novig Denver −4.5 · O/U 43.5 · home 32%
Books (consensus) Denver −4.5 · O/U 43.5 · Denver 67% to win · 5 books in Details
DK Denver −4.5 · O/U 43.5 · Ours Denver −4.5 · O/U 45.7
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Denver −4.5 | 43.5 | 32% | Denver −4.5 | 43.5 | 45.7 | -225 / +185 | 34% | Denver −4.5 | 37% | -171 / +171 | +0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Denver 25 at Arizona 21, a total of 45.7 against the market's 43.5. Our spread is Denver −4.5 against DraftKings' Denver −4.5. We give Arizona 37% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 34%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Denver -171, Arizona +171, against DraftKings' Denver -225, Arizona +185. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. What the big books post
Books (consensus) takes each book’s own spread, total and moneyline, removes that book’s margin, and averages the books quoting the most common line, so its percentages are no-vig chances, not payouts. Odds from The Odds API. Our leanNo lean: our spread and the market's are within 1.5 points of each other. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Green Bay
24
Detroit
28
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No lean Line as of 9:01 PM ET
Under 54.5
Novig Detroit −3.5 · O/U 54.5 · home 63%
Books (consensus) Detroit −3.5 · O/U 54.5 · Detroit 63% to win · 5 books in Details
DK Detroit −3.5 · O/U 54.5 · Ours Detroit −3.3 · O/U 52.2
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Detroit −3.5 | 54.5 | 63% | Detroit −3.5 | 54.5 | 52.2 | +154 / -185 | 62% | Detroit −3.3 | 60% | +148 / -148 | -0.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Green Bay 24 at Detroit 28, a total of 52.2 against the market's 54.5. Our spread is Detroit −3.3 against DraftKings' Detroit −3.5, 0.2 points toward Green Bay. We give Detroit 60% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 62%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Green Bay +148, Detroit -148, against DraftKings' Green Bay +154, Detroit -185. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. What the big books post
Books (consensus) takes each book’s own spread, total and moneyline, removes that book’s margin, and averages the books quoting the most common line, so its percentages are no-vig chances, not payouts. Odds from The Odds API. Our leanNo lean: our spread and the market's are within 1.5 points of each other. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Los Angeles
27
Las Vegas
22
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Los Angeles −3 Line as of 9:01 PM ET
No total lean
Novig Los Angeles −2.5 · O/U 48.5 · home 39%
Books (consensus) Los Angeles −3.5 · O/U 48.5 · Los Angeles 61% to win · 5 books in Details
DK Los Angeles −3 · O/U 48.5 · Ours Los Angeles −4.6 · O/U 48.8
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Los Angeles −2.5 | 48.5 | 39% | Los Angeles −3 | 48.5 | 48.8 | -175 / +145 | 39% | Los Angeles −4.6 | 37% | -173 / +173 | -1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Los Angeles 27 at Las Vegas 22, a total of 48.8 against the market's 48.5. Our spread is Los Angeles −4.6 against DraftKings' Los Angeles −3, 1.6 points toward Los Angeles. We give Las Vegas 37% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 39%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Los Angeles -173, Las Vegas +173, against DraftKings' Los Angeles -175, Las Vegas +145. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. What the big books post
Books (consensus) takes each book’s own spread, total and moneyline, removes that book’s margin, and averages the books quoting the most common line, so its percentages are no-vig chances, not payouts. Odds from The Odds API. Our leanLos Angeles −3: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Kansas City
21
Seattle
20
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Kansas City +3 Line as of 9:01 PM ET
Under 42.5
Novig Seattle −3.5 · O/U 42.5 · home 58%
Books (consensus) Seattle −3 · O/U 42.5 · Seattle 58% to win · 5 books in Details
DK Seattle −3 · O/U 42.5 · Ours Kansas City −1.1 · O/U 40.2
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Seattle −3.5 | 42.5 | 58% | Seattle −3 | 42.5 | 40.2 | +124 / -148 | 57% | Kansas City −1.1 | 47% | -115 / +115 | -4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Kansas City 21 at Seattle 20, a total of 40.2 against the market's 42.5. Our spread is Kansas City −1.1 against DraftKings' Seattle −3, 4.1 points toward Kansas City. We give Seattle 47% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 57%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Kansas City -115, Seattle +115, against DraftKings' Kansas City +124, Seattle -148. Seattle lists Sam Darnold as its starting quarterback instead of Drew Lock; our number accounts for it. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. What the big books post
Books (consensus) takes each book’s own spread, total and moneyline, removes that book’s margin, and averages the books quoting the most common line, so its percentages are no-vig chances, not payouts. Odds from The Odds API. Our leanKansas City +3: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Monday, October 26 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Dallas
23
Philadelphia
26
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Philadelphia +4.5 Line as of 9:01 PM ET
Over 43.5
Novig Dallas −4.5 · O/U 43.5 · home 33%
Books (consensus) Dallas −4.5 · O/U 44 · Dallas 66% to win · 5 books in Details
DK Dallas −4.5 · O/U 43.5 · Ours Philadelphia −2.9 · O/U 48.5
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Dallas −4.5 | 43.5 | 33% | Dallas −4.5 | 43.5 | 48.5 | -218 / +180 | 34% | Philadelphia −2.9 | 59% | +141 / -141 | +7.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Dallas 23 at Philadelphia 26, a total of 48.5 against the market's 43.5. Our spread is Philadelphia −2.9 against DraftKings' Dallas −4.5, 7.4 points toward Philadelphia. We give Philadelphia 59% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 34%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Dallas +141, Philadelphia -141, against DraftKings' Dallas -218, Philadelphia +180. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. What the big books post
Books (consensus) takes each book’s own spread, total and moneyline, removes that book’s margin, and averages the books quoting the most common line, so its percentages are no-vig chances, not payouts. Odds from The Odds API. Our leanPhiladelphia +4.5: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
How to read Our lean. It names the side our number points to and the DraftKings line that side has to beat. When our spread and DraftKings' are within 1.5 points of each other it says No lean. Under it is the total lean: Over or Under DraftKings' total when our projected total is 1.5 points or more away from it. DraftKings' numbers are the current line, refreshed every hour, and each lean is stamped with the time of the line it uses, so a lean can move with the line. A lean is what our number says, not a recommendation to bet it.
Gap is our spread minus DraftKings', counted in home-team points: a plus number leans to the home team and a minus number to the away team.
Projected scores are ours, margin and total. Our totals have not been shown to beat the market's, which is why DraftKings' total sits right next to them.
Both percentage columns are the home team's chance of winning, so they read straight across. DK's moneyline is shown as posted, away then home, and its percentage is de-vigged: the book's fee is removed so its number means the same thing as ours. 13 of the 13 games have a posted moneyline. Our fair ML is our win chance written as a moneyline with no fee, away then home: what our number thinks the moneyline should be, to read next to DraftKings'.
Where we disagree most
Every game with a DraftKings line and a number from us: 13 of the 13 on the slate.
| Game | Our lean | Market | Ours | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas at Philadelphia | Philadelphia +4.5 | Dallas −4.5 | Philadelphia −2.9 | +7.4 |
| Kansas City at Seattle | Kansas City +3 | Seattle −3 | Kansas City −1.1 | -4.1 |
| Miami at New York | Miami +4.5 | New York −4.5 | New York −1.9 | -2.6 |
| San Francisco at Atlanta | San Francisco −2.5 | San Francisco −2.5 | San Francisco −4.9 | -2.4 |
| Cincinnati at Baltimore | Baltimore +3 | Cincinnati −3 | Cincinnati −1.1 | +1.9 |
| Tampa Bay at Carolina | Tampa Bay +3 | Carolina −3 | Carolina −1.3 | -1.7 |
| Los Angeles at Las Vegas | Los Angeles −3 | Los Angeles −3 | Los Angeles −4.6 | -1.6 |
| Indianapolis at Minnesota | No lean | Minnesota −6.5 | Minnesota −5.5 | -1.0 |
Worth watching to see whether the disagreements are systematic. That is a different question from whether any single one of them is right.
What is behind the numbers
Team offense and defense ratings fitted on every NFL game since 1999, with recent games counting more and each new season starting from a discounted version of the last, plus home field and a term for a team starting someone other than its usual quarterback. They are the same team ratings behind our weekly game simulator, before its injury adjustment, and they are rebuilt after each week's games. Rebuilt through 22 October 2026 on 7,370 games; home field 1.3 points. Win chance is the normal CDF of our margin over 13.4 points, the typical size of our past misses.
Graded game by game on every NFL game since 1999, each predicted only from games played before it (7,356 games). Our spread missed the final margin by 10.46 points on average and the closing line by 10.25. On the 4,190 games since 2011, which played no part in choosing the model's settings, ours missed by 10.23 and the closing line by 9.99, and our totals missed by 10.72 against the closing total's 10.44. The closing line was the more accurate number. Taking our side of the closing spread was right in 2,082 of 4,080 of those games (51.0%), short of the roughly 52.4% needed to beat the standard price.
The DraftKings columns are DraftKings only. Under each game’s Novig line, Books (consensus) and each of the five big books that has posted the game (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, Fanatics) are shown as quoted, with prices in the details.
Books (consensus) is hidden right now: the newest books snapshot is more than 2 hours old. Our number and Novig are unaffected. It returns on its own when fresh prices land.