NBA · Today's slate
Lines board
Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 8 games, 2 with a DraftKings price, 0 with a Novig price, 8 with a number from us
Built 24 October 2026 at 9:01 PM ET
The slate
Away team above, home team below and marked (H). Scores are our projections. In tip-off order by default; click any column heading to sort by it, and tap a game for the full breakdown.
| Matchup & projected score | Our lean | Novig spread | Novig total | Novig home % | DK spread | DK total | Our total | DK ML | DK home % | Our spread | Our home % | Our fair ML | Gap | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Miami
114
Charlotte
118
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No line yet
No total yet
DK n/a · O/U n/a · Ours Charlotte −4.3 · O/U 232.6
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n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 232.6 | n/a / n/a | n/a | Charlotte −4.3 | 62% | +164 / -164 | n/a | ||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Miami 114 at Charlotte 118, a total of 232.6. Our spread is Charlotte −4.3; there is no market line yet. We give Charlotte 62% to win. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Miami +164, Charlotte -164. Second night of a back-to-back for Miami and Charlotte; our number accounts for it. Final: Miami 110, Charlotte 115. Our leanNo line yet: a lean needs both a market spread and a number from us. This board does not freeze leans before tip-off yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Brooklyn
110
Cleveland
119
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No line yet
No total yet
DK n/a · O/U n/a · Ours Cleveland −8.9 · O/U 228.2
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n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 228.2 | n/a / n/a | n/a | Cleveland −8.9 | 74% | +282 / -282 | n/a | ||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Brooklyn 110 at Cleveland 119, a total of 228.2. Our spread is Cleveland −8.9; there is no market line yet. We give Cleveland 74% to win. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Brooklyn +282, Cleveland -282. Our leanNo line yet: a lean needs both a market spread and a number from us. This board does not freeze leans before tip-off yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Milwaukee
111
Philadelphia
118
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No line yet
No total yet
DK n/a · O/U n/a · Ours Philadelphia −7.2 · O/U 229.4
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n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 229.4 | n/a / n/a | n/a | Philadelphia −7.2 | 70% | +228 / -228 | n/a | ||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Milwaukee 111 at Philadelphia 118, a total of 229.4. Our spread is Philadelphia −7.2; there is no market line yet. We give Philadelphia 70% to win. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Milwaukee +228, Philadelphia -228. Second night of a back-to-back for Milwaukee; our number accounts for it. Our leanNo line yet: a lean needs both a market spread and a number from us. This board does not freeze leans before tip-off yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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San Antonio
120
Dallas
114
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No line yet
No total yet
DK n/a · O/U n/a · Ours San Antonio −5.1 · O/U 233.9
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n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 233.9 | n/a / n/a | n/a | San Antonio −5.1 | 36% | -180 / +180 | n/a | ||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score San Antonio 120 at Dallas 114, a total of 233.9. Our spread is San Antonio −5.1; there is no market line yet. We give Dallas 36% to win. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads San Antonio -180, Dallas +180. Second night of a back-to-back for San Antonio and Dallas; our number accounts for it. Our leanNo line yet: a lean needs both a market spread and a number from us. This board does not freeze leans before tip-off yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Washington
117
Chicago
121
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No line yet
No total yet
DK n/a · O/U n/a · Ours Chicago −4.6 · O/U 237.9
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n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 237.9 | n/a / n/a | n/a | Chicago −4.6 | 63% | +170 / -170 | n/a | ||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Washington 117 at Chicago 121, a total of 237.9. Our spread is Chicago −4.6; there is no market line yet. We give Chicago 63% to win. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Washington +170, Chicago -170. Second night of a back-to-back for Washington and Chicago; our number accounts for it. Our leanNo line yet: a lean needs both a market spread and a number from us. This board does not freeze leans before tip-off yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Houston
114
Atlanta
116
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No line yet
No total yet
DK n/a · O/U n/a · Ours Atlanta −1.6 · O/U 229.4
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n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 229.4 | n/a / n/a | n/a | Atlanta −1.6 | 54% | +120 / -120 | n/a | ||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Houston 114 at Atlanta 116, a total of 229.4. Our spread is Atlanta −1.6; there is no market line yet. We give Atlanta 54% to win. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Houston +120, Atlanta -120. Second night of a back-to-back for Houston and Atlanta; our number accounts for it. Our leanNo line yet: a lean needs both a market spread and a number from us. This board does not freeze leans before tip-off yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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New Orleans
115
Denver
122
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New Orleans +11.5 Line as of 9:01 PM ET
Under 239.5
DK Denver −11.5 · O/U 239.5 · Ours Denver −7.8 · O/U 237.2
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n/a | n/a | n/a | Denver −11.5 | 239.5 | 237.2 | +370 / -485 | 80% | Denver −7.8 | 71% | +246 / -246 | -3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score New Orleans 115 at Denver 122, a total of 237.2 against the market's 239.5. Our spread is Denver −7.8 against DraftKings' Denver −11.5, 3.7 points toward New Orleans. We give Denver 71% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 80%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads New Orleans +246, Denver -246, against DraftKings' New Orleans +370, Denver -485. Second night of a back-to-back for New Orleans; our number accounts for it. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. Our leanNew Orleans +11.5: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before tip-off yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Golden State
111
Phoenix
116
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Golden State +9.5 Line as of 9:01 PM ET
Over 221.5
DK Phoenix −9.5 · O/U 221.5 · Ours Phoenix −5.6 · O/U 226.9
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n/a | n/a | n/a | Phoenix −9.5 | 221.5 | 226.9 | +320 / -410 | 77% | Phoenix −5.6 | 66% | +190 / -190 | -3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Golden State 111 at Phoenix 116, a total of 226.9 against the market's 221.5. Our spread is Phoenix −5.6 against DraftKings' Phoenix −9.5, 3.9 points toward Golden State. We give Phoenix 66% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 77%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Golden State +190, Phoenix -190, against DraftKings' Golden State +320, Phoenix -410. Second night of a back-to-back for Golden State; our number accounts for it. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. Our leanGolden State +9.5: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before tip-off yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
How to read Our lean. It names the side our number points to and the DraftKings line that side has to beat. When our spread and DraftKings' are within 1.5 points of each other it says No lean. Under it is the total lean: Over or Under DraftKings' total when our projected total is 1.5 points or more away from it. DraftKings' numbers are the current line, refreshed every hour, and each lean is stamped with the time of the line it uses, so a lean can move with the line. A lean is what our number says, not a recommendation to bet it.
Gap is our spread minus DraftKings', counted in home-team points: a plus number leans to the home team and a minus number to the away team.
Projected scores are ours, margin and total. Our totals have not been shown to beat the market's, which is why DraftKings' total sits right next to them.
Both percentage columns are the home team's chance of winning, so they read straight across. DK's moneyline is shown as posted, away then home, and its percentage is de-vigged: the book's fee is removed so its number means the same thing as ours. 2 of the 8 games have a posted moneyline. Our fair ML is our win chance written as a moneyline with no fee, away then home: what our number thinks the moneyline should be, to read next to DraftKings'.
Where we disagree most
Every game with a DraftKings line and a number from us: 2 of the 8 on the slate.
| Game | Our lean | Market | Ours | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State at Phoenix | Golden State +9.5 | Phoenix −9.5 | Phoenix −5.6 | -3.9 |
| New Orleans at Denver | New Orleans +11.5 | Denver −11.5 | Denver −7.8 | -3.7 |
Worth watching to see whether the disagreements are systematic. That is a different question from whether any single one of them is right.
What is behind the numbers
Team offense and defense ratings fitted on every regular-season game since 2021-22, with recent games counting more, plus home court and the second night of a back-to-back. Fitted on 6,153 games; home court 1.9 points. Win chance is the normal CDF of our margin over 14.0 points, the typical size of our past misses.
Graded game by game on every regular-season game since 2021-22, each predicted only from games played before it (6,151 games). Our spread missed the final margin by 10.96 points on average. On the 6,150 of those games where ESPN kept a closing line (DraftKings, or ESPN BET in the seasons ESPN carried that book), ours missed by 10.96 and the closing line by 10.47. The closing line was the more accurate number. Taking our side of the closing spread would have been right 49.7% of the time over 6,083 games, against the roughly 52.4% needed to beat the standard price.
FanDuel prices are not on this board.