CFB Week 10 | Lines board

Ohio32

Akron (H)19

Tue 7:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Ohio	Akron (H)
ATO	−12.8	+12.8
DraftKings	−12.5−105	+12.5−115
FanDuel	−13.5−105	+13.5−115, best number
BetMGM	−12−110	+12−108
Caesars	−12.5−107	+12.5−113
Fanatics	−11.5−110	+11.5−110
Novig	−11.5−108, best number	+11.5+100

ATO−12.8OhioHome win 20%

Novig−11.5OhioO/U 50.5Home win 20%

Books, best number+13.5AkronFanDuel (−115)Over 50.5 FanDuel (−110)Under 51 Caesars (−107)

Gap0.7 ptstoward Akron

Our lean Not locked yetNo lean

What the model sees

Projected score Ohio 32 at Akron 19, on DraftKings' total of 50.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Ohio −12.8 against the best book number on our side, Ohio −13.5 (FanDuel), 0.7 points toward Akron. We give Akron 20% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 20%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Ohio to win	80%	80%	+0.4 pts
Akron to win	20%	20%	-0.4 pts
Akron +13.5	52%	50%	+0.7 pts
Ohio −13.5	48%	50%	-0.7 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		20%
Novig	50.5	−426 / +400	20%
Books (no-vig consensus)	50.5	no-vig	20%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

What Novig charges

Side	Price
Ohio to win	81c
Akron to win	20c
Akron +11.5	50c
Ohio −11.5	52c
Over 50.5	52c
Under 50.5	50c

A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from the books'.

Prices from Novig

Books

best number on Akron: +13.5 at FanDuel; no-vig spread Ohio −12.5, Ohio covers 49.1%; no-vig total 50.5, over 51.1%; Akron wins 20.2%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Ohio −12.5 (−105) · O/U 50.5 (−120 / +100) · ML Akron +350, Ohio −455
FanDuel	Ohio −13.5 (−105) · O/U 50.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Akron +420, Ohio −550
BetMGM	Ohio −12 (−110) · O/U 50.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Akron +380, Ohio −500
Caesars	Ohio −12.5 (−107) · O/U 51 (−113 / −107) · ML Akron +370, Ohio −480
Fanatics	Ohio −11.5 (−110) · O/U 51 (−110 / −110) · ML Akron +360, Ohio −475

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Mon 2 Nov, 7:00 PM ET

Open No lean locked Sat 31 Oct, 7:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Tue 3 Nov, 6:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Akron +12.5 → not yet → not yet

Buffalo17

Miami (OH) (H)28

Tue 8:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Buffalo	Miami (OH) (H)
ATO	+11.1	−11.1
DraftKings	+6.5−105	−6.5−115
FanDuel	+6.5−105	−6.5−115
BetMGM	+6.5−105	−6.5−112
Caesars	+6.5−108	−6.5−112
Fanatics	+6.5−110	−6.5−110
Novig	+6.5+104, best number	−6.5−108, best number

ATO−11.1Miami (OH)Home win 77%

Novig−6.5Miami (OH)O/U 44.5Home win 69%

Books, best number−6.5Miami (OH)Fanatics (−110)Over 44 Fanatics (−110)Under 44.5 Caesars (−107)

Gap4.6 ptstoward Miami (OH)

Our lean Not locked yetMiami (OH) −6.5

What the model sees

Projected score Buffalo 17 at Miami (OH) 28, on DraftKings' total of 44.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Miami (OH) −11.1 against the best book number on our side, Miami (OH) −6.5 (Fanatics), 4.6 points toward Miami (OH). We give Miami (OH) 77% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 69%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Buffalo to win	23%	31%	-8.3 pts
Miami (OH) to win	77%	69%	+8.3 pts
Miami (OH) −6.5	62%	50%	+4.6 pts
Buffalo +6.5	38%	50%	-4.6 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		77%
Novig	44.5	+223 / −233	69%
Books (no-vig consensus)	44.5	no-vig	69%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

What Novig charges

Side	Price
Buffalo to win	31c
Miami (OH) to win	70c
Miami (OH) −6.5	52c
Buffalo +6.5	49c
Over 44.5	49.5c
Under 44.5	51c

A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from the books'.

Prices from Novig

Books

best number on Miami (OH): −6.5 at Fanatics; no-vig spread Miami (OH) −6.5, Miami (OH) covers 50.7%; no-vig total 44.5, over 49.7%; Miami (OH) wins 68.5%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Miami (OH) −6.5 (−115) · O/U 44.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Miami (OH) −250, Buffalo +205
FanDuel	Miami (OH) −6.5 (−115) · O/U 44.5 (−105 / −115) · ML Miami (OH) −245, Buffalo +202
BetMGM	Miami (OH) −6.5 (−112) · O/U 44.5 (−105 / −112) · ML Miami (OH) −250, Buffalo +200
Caesars	Miami (OH) −6.5 (−112) · O/U 44.5 (−114 / −107) · ML Miami (OH) −250, Buffalo +205
Fanatics	Miami (OH) −6.5 (−110) · O/U 44 (−110 / −110) · ML Miami (OH) −260, Buffalo +210

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Mon 2 Nov, 8:00 PM ET

Open Miami (OH) −6.5 locked Sat 31 Oct, 7:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Tue 3 Nov, 7:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Miami (OH) −6.5 → not yet → not yet

Ball State25

Massachusetts (H)24

Wed 7:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Ball State	Massachusetts (H)
ATO	−0.4	+0.4
DraftKings	+3.5−120	−3.5+100
FanDuel	+3.5−115	−3.5−105
BetMGM	+3.5−118	−3.5−102
Caesars	+3.5−113, best number	−3.5−107
Fanatics	+3−105	−3−115, best number
Novig	+3.5−115	−3.5+111

ATO−0.4Ball StateHome win 49%

Novig−3.5MassachusettsO/U 49.5Home win 59%

Books, best number+3.5Ball StateCaesars (−113)Over 49.5 DraftKings (−108)Under 49.5 BetMGM (−108)

Gap3.9 ptstoward Ball State

Our lean Not locked yetBall State +3.5

What the model sees

Projected score Ball State 25 at Massachusetts 24, on DraftKings' total of 49.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Ball State −0.4 against the best book number on our side, Massachusetts −3.5 (Caesars), 3.9 points toward Ball State. We give Massachusetts 49% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 59%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Ball State to win	51%	41%	+9.9 pts
Massachusetts to win	49%	59%	-9.9 pts
Massachusetts −3.5	40%	50%	-3.9 pts
Ball State +3.5	60%	50%	+3.9 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		49%
Novig	49.5	+144 / −150	59%
Books (no-vig consensus)	49.5	no-vig	59%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

What Novig charges

Side	Price
Ball State to win	41c
Massachusetts to win	60c
Massachusetts −3.5	47.5c
Ball State +3.5	53.5c
Over 49.5	51c
Under 49.5	51c

A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from the books'.

Prices from Novig

Books

best number on Ball State: +3.5 at Caesars; no-vig spread Massachusetts −3.5, Massachusetts covers 48.6%; no-vig total 49.5, over 50.0%; Massachusetts wins 58.8%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Massachusetts −3.5 (+100) · O/U 49.5 (−108 / −112) · ML Massachusetts −155, Ball State +130
FanDuel	Massachusetts −3.5 (−105) · O/U 49.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Massachusetts −160, Ball State +132
BetMGM	Massachusetts −3.5 (−102) · O/U 49.5 (−110 / −108) · ML Massachusetts −155, Ball State +130
Caesars	Massachusetts −3.5 (−107) · O/U 49.5 (−112 / −110) · ML Massachusetts −162, Ball State +137
Fanatics	Massachusetts −3 (−115) · O/U 49.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Massachusetts −160, Ball State +135

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Tue 3 Nov, 7:00 PM ET

Open Ball State +4.5 locked Sat 31 Oct, 7:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Wed 4 Nov, 6:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Ball State +4.5 → not yet → not yet

Toledo36

Sacramento State (H)17

Wed 7:00 PM ET FCS

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Toledo	Sacramento State (H)
ATO	−19.1	+19.1
DraftKings	−25.5−112	+25.5−108
FanDuel	−26.5−106	+26.5−114
BetMGM	−25.5−110	+25.5−108
Caesars	−25.5−109, best number	+25.5−110
Fanatics	−27−110	+27−110, best number

ATO−19.1ToledoHome win 10%

Novign/a O/U 52.5Home win 6%

Books, best number+27Sacramento StateFanatics (−110)Over 52.5 BetMGM (−108)Under 53.5 FanDuel (−110)

Gap7.9 ptstoward Sacramento Staterating scale, not the matchup

Our lean Not locked yetSacramento State +27

What the model sees

Projected score Toledo 36 at Sacramento State 17, on DraftKings' total of 52.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Toledo −19.1 against the best book number on our side, Toledo −27 (Fanatics), 7.9 points toward Sacramento State. We give Sacramento State 10% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 6%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Toledo to win	90%	94%	-3.9 pts
Sacramento State to win	10%	6%	+3.9 pts
Sacramento State +27	70%	50%	+7.9 pts
Toledo −27	30%	50%	-7.9 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		10%
Novig	52.5	−1900 / +1567	6%
Books (no-vig consensus)	52.5	no-vig	6%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

What Novig charges

Side	Price
Toledo to win	95c
Sacramento State to win	6c
Over 52.5	52c
Under 52.5	52c

A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from the books'.

Prices from Novig

Books

best number on Sacramento State: +27 at Fanatics; no-vig spread Toledo −25.5, Toledo covers 50.2%; no-vig total 52.5, over 50.0%; Sacramento State wins 6.4%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Toledo −25.5 (−112) · O/U 52.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Sacramento State +1400, Toledo −3200
FanDuel	Toledo −26.5 (−106) · O/U 53.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Sacramento State +1400, Toledo −4000
BetMGM	Toledo −25.5 (−110) · O/U 52.5 (−108 / −110) · ML Sacramento State +1500, Toledo −3000
Caesars	Toledo −25.5 (−109) · O/U 52.5 (−112 / −109) · ML Sacramento State +1300, Toledo −3500
Fanatics	Toledo −27 (−110) · O/U 52.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Sacramento State +1400, Toledo −2800

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Tue 3 Nov, 7:00 PM ET

Open Sacramento State +26.5 locked Sat 31 Oct, 9:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Wed 4 Nov, 6:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Sacramento State +26.5 → not yet → not yet

Central Michigan23

Eastern Michigan (H)22

Wed 7:30 PM ET Neutral site

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Central Michigan	Eastern Michigan (H)
ATO	−1.3	+1.3
DraftKings	+1.5−105	−1.5−115
FanDuel	+1.5−108	−1.5−112
BetMGM	+1.5−108	−1.5−110
Caesars	+1.5−109	−1.5−113
Fanatics	+2−110, best number	−2−110
Novig	+1.5+100	−1.5−102, best number

ATO−1.3Central MichiganHome win 47%

Novig−1.5Eastern MichiganO/U 47.5Home win 52%

Books, best number+2Central MichiganFanatics (−110)Over 44.5 BetMGM, Fanatics (−110)Under 44.5 FanDuel (−104)

Gap3.3 ptstoward Central Michigan

Our lean Not locked yetCentral Michigan +2

What the model sees

Projected score Central Michigan 23 at Eastern Michigan 22, on DraftKings' total of 44.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Central Michigan −1.3 against the best book number on our side, Eastern Michigan −2 (Fanatics), 3.3 points toward Central Michigan. We give Eastern Michigan 47% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 53%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Central Michigan to win	53%	47%	+6.0 pts
Eastern Michigan to win	47%	53%	-6.0 pts
Eastern Michigan −2	41%	50%	-3.3 pts
Central Michigan +2	59%	50%	+3.3 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		47%
Novig	47.5	+106 / −113	52%
Books (no-vig consensus)	44.5	no-vig	53%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

What Novig charges

Side	Price
Central Michigan to win	48.5c
Eastern Michigan to win	53c
Eastern Michigan −1.5	50.5c
Central Michigan +1.5	50c
Over 47.5	62.5c
Under 47.5	70c

A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from the books'.

Prices from Novig

Books

best number on Central Michigan: +2 at Fanatics; no-vig spread Eastern Michigan −1.5, Eastern Michigan covers 50.5%; no-vig total 44.5, over 50.6%; Eastern Michigan wins 52.6%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Eastern Michigan −1.5 (−115) · O/U 44.5 (−112 / −108) · ML Eastern Michigan −125, Central Michigan +105
FanDuel	Eastern Michigan −1.5 (−112) · O/U 44.5 (−118 / −104) · ML Eastern Michigan −118, Central Michigan −102
BetMGM	Eastern Michigan −1.5 (−110) · O/U 44.5 (−110 / −108) · ML Eastern Michigan −120, Central Michigan +100
Caesars	Eastern Michigan −1.5 (−113) · O/U 44.5 (−113 / −107) · ML Eastern Michigan −121, Central Michigan +102
Fanatics	Eastern Michigan −2 (−110) · O/U 44.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Eastern Michigan −125, Central Michigan +105

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Tue 3 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Open Central Michigan +1.5 locked Sat 31 Oct, 7:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Wed 4 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Central Michigan +1.5 → not yet → not yet

UTSA41

Florida Atlantic (H)32

Thu 7:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	UTSA	Florida Atlantic (H)
ATO	−9.4	+9.4
DraftKings	−7−110	+7−110, best number
FanDuel	−6.5−122	+6.5+100
BetMGM	−7−105	+7−112
Caesars	−7−105	+7−115
Fanatics	−7−110	+7−110, best number
Novig	−6.5−120, best number	+6.5+113

ATO−9.4UTSAHome win 27%

Novig−6.5UTSAO/U 72.5Home win 29%

Books, best number−6.5UTSAFanDuel (−122)Over 72 Fanatics (−110)Under 72.5 FanDuel (−105)

Gap2.9 ptstoward UTSA

Our lean Not locked yetUTSA −6.5

What the model sees

Projected score UTSA 41 at Florida Atlantic 32, on DraftKings' total of 72.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is UTSA −9.4 against the best book number on our side, UTSA −6.5 (FanDuel), 2.9 points toward UTSA. We give Florida Atlantic 27% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 30%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
UTSA to win	73%	70%	+3.8 pts
Florida Atlantic to win	27%	30%	-3.8 pts
Florida Atlantic +6.5	42%	50%	-2.9 pts
UTSA −6.5	58%	50%	+2.9 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		27%
Novig	72.5	−251 / +239	29%
Books (no-vig consensus)	72.5	no-vig	30%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

What Novig charges

Side	Price
UTSA to win	71.5c
Florida Atlantic to win	29.5c
Florida Atlantic +6.5	47c
UTSA −6.5	54.5c
Over 72.5	49.5c
Under 72.5	52.5c

A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from the books'.

Prices from Novig

Books

best number on UTSA: −6.5 at FanDuel; no-vig spread UTSA −7, UTSA covers 49.5%; no-vig total 72.5, over 50.0%; Florida Atlantic wins 30.5%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	UTSA −7 (−110) · O/U 72.5 (−105 / −115) · ML Florida Atlantic +225, UTSA −278
FanDuel	UTSA −6.5 (−122) · O/U 72.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Florida Atlantic +205, UTSA −250
BetMGM	UTSA −7 (−105) · O/U 72.5 (−108 / −110) · ML Florida Atlantic +210, UTSA −250
Caesars	UTSA −7 (−105) · O/U 72.5 (−110 / −109) · ML Florida Atlantic +220, UTSA −275
Fanatics	UTSA −7 (−110) · O/U 72 (−110 / −110) · ML Florida Atlantic +215, UTSA −265

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Wed 4 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Open UTSA −6.5 locked Sat 31 Oct, 10:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Thu 5 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: UTSA −6.5 → not yet → not yet

James Madison38

Southern Miss (H)19

Thu 8:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	James Madison	Southern Miss (H)
ATO	−19	+19
DraftKings	−14.5−110, best number	+14.5−110
FanDuel	−14.5−110, best number	+14.5−110
BetMGM	−14.5−110, best number	+14.5−110
Caesars	−14.5−112	+14.5−108
Fanatics	−15−110	+15−110, best number

ATO−19.0James MadisonHome win 10%

Novign/a O/U 57.5Home win 15%

Books, best number−14.5James MadisonDraftKings, FanDuel +1 (−110)Over 57.5 FanDuel (−106)Under 57.5 BetMGM (−108)

Gap4.5 ptstoward James Madison

Our lean Not locked yetJames Madison −14.5

What the model sees

Projected score James Madison 38 at Southern Miss 19, on DraftKings' total of 57.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is James Madison −19.0 against the best book number on our side, James Madison −14.5 (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM), 4.5 points toward James Madison. We give Southern Miss 10% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 16%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
James Madison to win	90%	84%	+5.8 pts
Southern Miss to win	10%	16%	-5.8 pts
Southern Miss +14.5	38%	50%	-4.5 pts
James Madison −14.5	62%	50%	+4.5 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		10%
Novig	57.5	−614 / +567	15%
Books (no-vig consensus)	57.5	no-vig	16%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

What Novig charges

Side	Price
James Madison to win	86c
Southern Miss to win	15c
Over 57.5	51.5c
Under 57.5	50c

A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from the books'.

Prices from Novig

Books

best number on James Madison: −14.5 at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM; no-vig spread James Madison −14.5, James Madison covers 50.1%; no-vig total 57.5, over 49.9%; Southern Miss wins 16.1%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	James Madison −14.5 (−110) · O/U 57.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Southern Miss +500, James Madison −700
FanDuel	James Madison −14.5 (−110) · O/U 57.5 (−106 / −114) · ML Southern Miss +480, James Madison −650
BetMGM	James Madison −14.5 (−110) · O/U 57.5 (−110 / −108) · ML Southern Miss +500, James Madison −650
Caesars	James Madison −14.5 (−112) · O/U 57.5 (−110 / −109) · ML Southern Miss +500, James Madison −750
Fanatics	James Madison −15 (−110) · O/U 57.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Southern Miss +500, James Madison −700

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Wed 4 Nov, 8:00 PM ET

Open James Madison −15.5 locked Sat 31 Oct, 10:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Thu 5 Nov, 7:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: James Madison −15.5 → not yet → not yet

Virginia Tech21

SMU (H)33

Fri 7:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Virginia Tech	SMU (H)
ATO	+12.3	−12.3
DraftKings	+6.5−115	−6.5−105
FanDuel	+6.5−118	−6.5−104
BetMGM	+6−108	−6−110, best number
Caesars	+6.5−110, best number	−6.5−109
Fanatics	+6−110	−6−110, best number

ATO−12.3SMUHome win 79%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−6SMUBetMGM, Fanatics (−110)Over 54.5 BetMGM (−118)Under 55.5 FanDuel (−110)

Gap6.3 ptstoward SMU

Our lean Not locked yetSMU −6

What the model sees

Projected score Virginia Tech 21 at SMU 33, on DraftKings' total of 54.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is SMU −12.3 against the best book number on our side, SMU −6 (BetMGM, Fanatics), 6.3 points toward SMU. We give SMU 79% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 66%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Virginia Tech to win	21%	34%	-13.5 pts
SMU to win	79%	66%	+13.5 pts
SMU −6	66%	50%	+6.3 pts
Virginia Tech +6	34%	50%	-6.3 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		79%
Books (no-vig consensus)	55	no-vig	66%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on SMU: −6 at BetMGM, Fanatics; no-vig spread SMU −6.5, SMU covers 49.1%; no-vig total 55, over 50.2%; SMU wins 65.7%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	SMU −6.5 (−105) · O/U 54.5 (−120 / +100) · ML SMU −225, Virginia Tech +185
FanDuel	SMU −6.5 (−104) · O/U 55.5 (−110 / −110) · ML SMU −205, Virginia Tech +168
BetMGM	SMU −6 (−110) · O/U 54.5 (−118 / −102) · ML SMU −220, Virginia Tech +180
Caesars	SMU −6.5 (−109) · O/U 55 (−112 / −108) · ML SMU −225, Virginia Tech +185
Fanatics	SMU −6 (−110) · O/U 55 (−110 / −110) · ML SMU −220, Virginia Tech +180

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Thu 5 Nov, 7:00 PM ET

Open SMU −7.5 locked Thu 29 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Fri 6 Nov, 6:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: SMU −7.5 → not yet → not yet

South Florida20

East Carolina (H)21

Fri 7:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	South Florida	East Carolina (H)
ATO	+0.9	−0.9
DraftKings	+1.5−110	−1.5−110
FanDuel	+1.5−110	−1.5−110
BetMGM	+1.5−108, best number	−1.5−110
Caesars	+1.5−114	−1.5−106
Fanatics	+1.5−115	−1.5−105, best number

ATO−0.9East CarolinaHome win 52%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−1.5East CarolinaFanatics (−105)Over 40.5 BetMGM (−108)Under 40.5 DraftKings, FanDuel +3 (−110)

Gap0.6 ptstoward South Florida

Our lean Not locked yetNo lean

What the model sees

Projected score South Florida 20 at East Carolina 21, on DraftKings' total of 40.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is East Carolina −0.9 against the best book number on our side, East Carolina −1.5 (Fanatics), 0.6 points toward South Florida. We give East Carolina 52% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 52%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
South Florida to win	48%	48%	-0.4 pts
East Carolina to win	52%	52%	+0.4 pts
East Carolina −1.5	49%	50%	-0.6 pts
South Florida +1.5	51%	50%	+0.6 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		52%
Books (no-vig consensus)	40.5	no-vig	52%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on East Carolina: −1.5 at Fanatics; no-vig spread East Carolina −1.5, East Carolina covers 49.6%; no-vig total 40.5, over 50.0%; East Carolina wins 52.1%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	East Carolina −1.5 (−110) · O/U 40.5 (−110 / −110) · ML East Carolina −120, South Florida +100
FanDuel	East Carolina −1.5 (−110) · O/U 40.5 (−110 / −110) · ML East Carolina −120, South Florida −102
BetMGM	East Carolina −1.5 (−110) · O/U 40.5 (−108 / −110) · ML East Carolina −120, South Florida +100
Caesars	East Carolina −1.5 (−106) · O/U 40.5 (−110 / −110) · ML East Carolina −118, South Florida +101
Fanatics	East Carolina −1.5 (−105) · O/U 40.5 (−110 / −110) · ML East Carolina −120, South Florida +100

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Thu 5 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Open East Carolina +1.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 1:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Fri 6 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: East Carolina +1.5 → not yet → not yet

Nebraska24

Illinois (H)25

Fri 8:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Nebraska	Illinois (H)
ATO	+0.9	−0.9
DraftKings	−4.5−112, best number	+4.5−108
FanDuel	−5.5−105	+5.5−115, best number
BetMGM	−5−108	+5−110
Caesars	−4.5−112, best number	+4.5−108
Fanatics	−5−110	+5−110

ATO−0.9IllinoisHome win 52%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+5.5IllinoisFanDuel (−115)Over 48.5 FanDuel (−108)Under 49.5 DraftKings (−108)

Gap6.4 ptstoward Illinois

Our lean Not locked yetIllinois +5.5

What the model sees

Projected score Nebraska 24 at Illinois 25, on DraftKings' total of 49.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Illinois −0.9 against the best book number on our side, Nebraska −5.5 (FanDuel), 6.4 points toward Illinois. We give Illinois 52% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 36%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Nebraska to win	48%	64%	-16.1 pts
Illinois to win	52%	36%	+16.1 pts
Illinois +5.5	67%	50%	+6.4 pts
Nebraska −5.5	33%	50%	-6.4 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		52%
Books (no-vig consensus)	49.5	no-vig	36%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Illinois: +5.5 at FanDuel; no-vig spread Nebraska −5, Nebraska covers 49.9%; no-vig total 49.5, over 50.0%; Illinois wins 36.4%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Nebraska −4.5 (−112) · O/U 49.5 (−112 / −108) · ML Illinois +164, Nebraska −198
FanDuel	Nebraska −5.5 (−105) · O/U 48.5 (−108 / −112) · ML Illinois +160, Nebraska −192
BetMGM	Nebraska −5 (−108) · O/U 49.5 (−108 / −110) · ML Illinois +160, Nebraska −200
Caesars	Nebraska −4.5 (−112) · O/U 49.5 (−112 / −112) · ML Illinois +166, Nebraska −197
Fanatics	Nebraska −5 (−110) · O/U 49.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Illinois +165, Nebraska −200

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Thu 5 Nov, 8:00 PM ET

Open Illinois +6 locked Sun 1 Nov, 1:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Fri 6 Nov, 7:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Illinois +6 → not yet → not yet

22New Mexico23

Nevada (H)16

Fri 9:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	New Mexico	Nevada (H)
ATO	−7.2	+7.2
DraftKings	−10.5−110	+10.5−110
FanDuel	−11.5−106	+11.5−114, best number
BetMGM	−10.5−110	+10.5−108
Caesars	−10.5−106, best number	+10.5−114
Fanatics	−10.5−110	+10.5−110

ATO−7.2New MexicoHome win 32%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+11.5NevadaFanDuel (−114)Over 38.5 DraftKings, BetMGM +1 (−110)Under 39.5 FanDuel (−110)

Gap4.3 ptstoward Nevada

Our lean Not locked yetNevada +11.5

What the model sees

Projected score New Mexico 23 at Nevada 16, on DraftKings' total of 38.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is New Mexico −7.2 against the best book number on our side, New Mexico −11.5 (FanDuel), 4.3 points toward Nevada. We give Nevada 32% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 21%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
New Mexico to win	68%	79%	-10.3 pts
Nevada to win	32%	21%	+10.3 pts
Nevada +11.5	61%	50%	+4.3 pts
New Mexico −11.5	39%	50%	-4.3 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		32%
Books (no-vig consensus)	38.5	no-vig	21%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Nevada: +11.5 at FanDuel; no-vig spread New Mexico −10.5, New Mexico covers 49.8%; no-vig total 38.5, over 50.2%; Nevada wins 21.4%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	New Mexico −10.5 (−110) · O/U 38.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Nevada +320, New Mexico −410
FanDuel	New Mexico −11.5 (−106) · O/U 39.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Nevada +390, New Mexico −520
BetMGM	New Mexico −10.5 (−110) · O/U 38.5 (−110 / −108) · ML Nevada +360, New Mexico −450
Caesars	New Mexico −10.5 (−106) · O/U 38.5 (−113 / −107) · ML Nevada +340, New Mexico −460
Fanatics	New Mexico −10.5 (−110) · O/U 38.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Nevada +340, New Mexico −450

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Thu 5 Nov, 9:00 PM ET

Open Nevada +12.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 1:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Fri 6 Nov, 8:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Nevada +12.5 → not yet → not yet

TCU20

24Arizona (H)25

Fri 10:15 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	TCU	Arizona (H)
ATO	+4.8	−4.8
DraftKings	+9.5−110, best number	−9.5−110
FanDuel	+9.5−115	−9.5−105
BetMGM	+9−110	−9−110, best number
Caesars	+9.5−112	−9.5−108
Fanatics	+9.5−110, best number	−9.5−110

ATO−4.8ArizonaHome win 63%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+9.5TCUDraftKings, Fanatics (−110)Over 44.5 BetMGM (−105)Under 44.5 FanDuel, Fanatics (−110)

Gap4.7 ptstoward TCU

Our lean Not locked yetTCU +9.5

What the model sees

Projected score TCU 20 at Arizona 25, on DraftKings' total of 44.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Arizona −4.8 against the best book number on our side, Arizona −9.5 (DraftKings, Fanatics), 4.7 points toward TCU. We give Arizona 63% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 74%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
TCU to win	37%	26%	+11.8 pts
Arizona to win	63%	74%	-11.8 pts
Arizona −9.5	38%	50%	-4.7 pts
TCU +9.5	62%	50%	+4.7 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		63%
Books (no-vig consensus)	44.5	no-vig	74%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on TCU: +9.5 at DraftKings, Fanatics; no-vig spread Arizona −9.5, Arizona covers 49.6%; no-vig total 44.5, over 49.7%; Arizona wins 74.3%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Arizona −9.5 (−110) · O/U 44.5 (−108 / −112) · ML Arizona −360, TCU +285
FanDuel	Arizona −9.5 (−105) · O/U 44.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Arizona −320, TCU +260
BetMGM	Arizona −9 (−110) · O/U 44.5 (−105 / −112) · ML Arizona −350, TCU +275
Caesars	Arizona −9.5 (−108) · O/U 44.5 (−110 / −112) · ML Arizona −345, TCU +275
Fanatics	Arizona −9.5 (−110) · O/U 44.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Arizona −350, TCU +275

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Thu 5 Nov, 10:15 PM ET

Open TCU +9.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 1:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Fri 6 Nov, 9:15 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: TCU +9.5 → not yet → not yet

7BYU19

3Utah (H)29

Sat 12:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	BYU	Utah (H)
ATO	+9.8	−9.8
DraftKings	+5.5−110	−5.5−110, best number
FanDuel	+5.5−104	−5.5−118
BetMGM	+6−110, best number	−6−108
Caesars	+5.5−108	−5.5−112
Fanatics	+5.5−110	−5.5−110, best number

ATO−9.8UtahHome win 74%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−5.5UtahDraftKings, Fanatics (−110)Over 45.5 FanDuel (−115)Under 47.5 Fanatics (−110)

Gap4.3 ptstoward Utah

Our lean Not locked yetUtah −5.5

What the model sees

Projected score BYU 19 at Utah 29, on DraftKings' total of 47.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Utah −9.8 against the best book number on our side, Utah −5.5 (DraftKings, Fanatics), 4.3 points toward Utah. We give Utah 74% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 66%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
BYU to win	26%	34%	-8.5 pts
Utah to win	74%	66%	+8.5 pts
Utah −5.5	61%	50%	+4.3 pts
BYU +5.5	39%	50%	-4.3 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		74%
Books (no-vig consensus)	47.5	no-vig	66%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Utah: −5.5 at DraftKings, Fanatics; no-vig spread Utah −5.5, Utah covers 50.5%; no-vig total 47.5, over 49.6%; Utah wins 65.6%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Utah −5.5 (−110) · O/U 47.5 (−108 / −112) · ML Utah −218, BYU +180
FanDuel	Utah −5.5 (−118) · O/U 45.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Utah −215, BYU +180
BetMGM	Utah −6 (−108) · O/U 47.5 (−105 / −112) · ML Utah −220, BYU +180
Caesars	Utah −5.5 (−112) · O/U 47.5 (−108 / −112) · ML Utah −209, BYU +176
Fanatics	Utah −5.5 (−110) · O/U 47.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Utah −220, BYU +180

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 12:00 PM ET

Open Utah −3 locked Fri 30 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 11:00 AM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Utah −3 → not yet → not yet

Clemson28

Syracuse (H)22

Sat 12:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Clemson	Syracuse (H)
ATO	−6	+6
DraftKings	−1.5−110	+1.5−110, best number
FanDuel	−1.5−108, best number	+1.5−112
BetMGM	−1.5−108, best number	+1.5−110, best number
Caesars	−1.5−110	+1.5−112
Fanatics	−1.5−110	+1.5−110, best number

ATO−6.0ClemsonHome win 34%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−1.5ClemsonFanDuel, BetMGM (−108)Over 49.5 DraftKings (−115)Under 50.5 BetMGM (−110)

Gap4.5 ptstoward Clemson

Our lean Not locked yetClemson −1.5

What the model sees

Projected score Clemson 28 at Syracuse 22, on DraftKings' total of 49.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Clemson −6.0 against the best book number on our side, Clemson −1.5 (FanDuel, BetMGM), 4.5 points toward Clemson. We give Syracuse 34% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 48%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Clemson to win	66%	52%	+13.8 pts
Syracuse to win	34%	48%	-13.8 pts
Syracuse +1.5	38%	50%	-4.5 pts
Clemson −1.5	62%	50%	+4.5 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		34%
Books (no-vig consensus)	50.5	no-vig	48%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Clemson: −1.5 at FanDuel, BetMGM; no-vig spread Clemson −1.5, Clemson covers 49.8%; no-vig total 50.5, over 49.6%; Syracuse wins 48.3%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Clemson −1.5 (−110) · O/U 49.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Syracuse +100, Clemson −120
FanDuel	Clemson −1.5 (−108) · O/U 50.5 (−108 / −112) · ML Syracuse −106, Clemson −113
BetMGM	Clemson −1.5 (−108) · O/U 50.5 (−108 / −110) · ML Syracuse −102, Clemson −118
Caesars	Clemson −1.5 (−110) · O/U 50.5 (−107 / −113) · ML Syracuse −104, Clemson −120
Fanatics	Clemson −1.5 (−110) · O/U 50 (−110 / −110) · ML Syracuse +100, Clemson −120

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 12:00 PM ET

Open Clemson −1.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 11:00 AM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Clemson −1.5 → not yet → not yet

Florida State30

Boston College (H)23

Sat 12:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Florida State	Boston College (H)
ATO	−7.2	+7.2
DraftKings	−6.5−110, best number	+6.5−110
FanDuel	−6.5−118	+6.5−104, best number
BetMGM	−6.5−110, best number	+6.5−108
Caesars	−6.5−115	+6.5−105
Fanatics	−6.5−110, best number	+6.5−110

ATO−7.2Florida StateHome win 32%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+6.5Boston CollegeFanDuel (−104)Over 51.5 FanDuel (−110)Under 52.5 DraftKings (−112)

Gap0.7 ptstoward Florida State

Our lean Not locked yetNo lean

What the model sees

Projected score Florida State 30 at Boston College 23, on DraftKings' total of 52.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Florida State −7.2 against the best book number on our side, Florida State −6.5 (FanDuel), 0.7 points toward Florida State. We give Boston College 32% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 32%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Florida State to win	68%	68%	-0.2 pts
Boston College to win	32%	32%	+0.2 pts
Boston College +6.5	48%	50%	-0.7 pts
Florida State −6.5	52%	50%	+0.7 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		32%
Books (no-vig consensus)	51.5	no-vig	32%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Boston College: +6.5 at FanDuel; no-vig spread Florida State −6.5, Florida State covers 50.6%; no-vig total 51.5, over 50.4%; Boston College wins 31.5%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Florida State −6.5 (−110) · O/U 52.5 (−108 / −112) · ML Boston College +210, Florida State −258
FanDuel	Florida State −6.5 (−118) · O/U 51.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Boston College +198, Florida State −240
BetMGM	Florida State −6.5 (−110) · O/U 51.5 (−112 / −105) · ML Boston College +200, Florida State −235
Caesars	Florida State −6.5 (−115) · O/U 52.5 (−106 / −114) · ML Boston College +205, Florida State −250
Fanatics	Florida State −6.5 (−110) · O/U 52 (−110 / −110) · ML Boston College +210, Florida State −260

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 12:00 PM ET

Open No lean locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 11:00 AM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Boston College +6.5 → not yet → not yet

Iowa State24

Baylor (H)27

Sat 12:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Iowa State	Baylor (H)
ATO	+3.1	−3.1
DraftKings	+9.5−112	−9.5−108
FanDuel	+8.5−112	−8.5−108, best number
BetMGM	+9.5−108, best number	−9.5−110
Fanatics	+9.5−110	−9.5−110

ATO−3.1BaylorHome win 58%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+9.5Iowa StateBetMGM (−108)Over 50.5 FanDuel, BetMGM (−110)Under 50.5 Fanatics (−105)

Gap6.4 ptstoward Iowa State

Our lean Not locked yetIowa State +9.5

What the model sees

Projected score Iowa State 24 at Baylor 27, on DraftKings' total of 50.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Baylor −3.1 against the best book number on our side, Baylor −9.5 (BetMGM), 6.4 points toward Iowa State. We give Baylor 58% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 75%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Iowa State to win	42%	25%	+16.5 pts
Baylor to win	58%	75%	-16.5 pts
Baylor −9.5	34%	50%	-6.4 pts
Iowa State +9.5	66%	50%	+6.4 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		58%
Books (no-vig consensus)	50.5	no-vig	75%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Iowa State: +9.5 at BetMGM; no-vig spread Baylor −9.5, Baylor covers 49.9%; no-vig total 50.5, over 50.4%; Baylor wins 74.7%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Baylor −9.5 (−108) · O/U 50.5 (−112 / −108) · ML Baylor −375, Iowa State +295
FanDuel	Baylor −8.5 (−108) · O/U 50.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Baylor −320, Iowa State +255
BetMGM	Baylor −9.5 (−110) · O/U 50.5 (−110 / −108) · ML Baylor −350, Iowa State +275
Fanatics	Baylor −9.5 (−110) · O/U 50.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Baylor −375, Iowa State +290

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 12:00 PM ET

Open Iowa State +9.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 11:00 AM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Iowa State +9.5 → not yet → not yet

North Carolina29

UConn (H)25

Sat 12:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	North Carolina	UConn (H)
ATO	−4.3	+4.3
DraftKings	−7−105, best number	+7−115
FanDuel	−7.5+102	+7.5−124, best number
BetMGM	−7−105, best number	+7−112
Caesars	−7−108	+7−112
Fanatics	−7−105, best number	+7−115

ATO−4.3North CarolinaHome win 39%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+7.5UConnFanDuel (−124)Over 53.5 FanDuel (−110)Under 54.5 DraftKings, Caesars (−112)

Gap3.2 ptstoward UConn

Our lean Not locked yetUConn +7.5

What the model sees

Projected score North Carolina 29 at UConn 25, on DraftKings' total of 54.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is North Carolina −4.3 against the best book number on our side, North Carolina −7.5 (FanDuel), 3.2 points toward UConn. We give UConn 39% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 30%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
North Carolina to win	61%	70%	-8.9 pts
UConn to win	39%	30%	+8.9 pts
UConn +7.5	58%	50%	+3.2 pts
North Carolina −7.5	42%	50%	-3.2 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		39%
Books (no-vig consensus)	53.5	no-vig	30%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on UConn: +7.5 at FanDuel; no-vig spread North Carolina −7, North Carolina covers 49.2%; no-vig total 53.5, over 50.5%; UConn wins 29.9%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	North Carolina −7 (−105) · O/U 54.5 (−108 / −112) · ML UConn +225, North Carolina −278
FanDuel	North Carolina −7.5 (+102) · O/U 53.5 (−110 / −110) · ML UConn +215, North Carolina −265
BetMGM	North Carolina −7 (−105) · O/U 53.5 (−115 / −105) · ML UConn +220, North Carolina −275
Caesars	North Carolina −7 (−108) · O/U 54.5 (−108 / −112) · ML UConn +220, North Carolina −275
Fanatics	North Carolina −7 (−105) · O/U 54 (−110 / −110) · ML UConn +220, North Carolina −275

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 12:00 PM ET

Open UConn +8.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 11:00 AM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: UConn +8.5 → not yet → not yet

10Texas25

19Missouri (H)20

Sat 12:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Texas	Missouri (H)
ATO	−5.3	+5.3
DraftKings	−2.5−112, best number	+2.5−108
FanDuel	−2.5−115	+2.5−105
BetMGM	−2.5−112, best number	+2.5−105
Caesars	−2.5−117	+2.5−104
Fanatics	−2.5−120	+2.5+100, best number

ATO−5.3TexasHome win 36%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−2.5TexasDraftKings, BetMGM (−112)Over 44 Caesars, Fanatics (−110)Under 45.5 FanDuel (−114)

Gap2.8 ptstoward Texas

Our lean Not locked yetTexas −2.5

What the model sees

Projected score Texas 25 at Missouri 20, on DraftKings' total of 44.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Texas −5.3 against the best book number on our side, Texas −2.5 (DraftKings, BetMGM), 2.8 points toward Texas. We give Missouri 36% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 44%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Texas to win	64%	56%	+7.8 pts
Missouri to win	36%	44%	-7.8 pts
Missouri +2.5	43%	50%	-2.8 pts
Texas −2.5	57%	50%	+2.8 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		36%
Books (no-vig consensus)	44.5	no-vig	44%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Texas: −2.5 at DraftKings, BetMGM; no-vig spread Texas −2.5, Texas covers 51.2%; no-vig total 44.5, over 48.7%; Missouri wins 44.1%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Texas −2.5 (−112) · O/U 44.5 (−102 / −118) · ML Missouri +120, Texas −142
FanDuel	Texas −2.5 (−115) · O/U 45.5 (−106 / −114) · ML Missouri +112, Texas −134
BetMGM	Texas −2.5 (−112) · O/U 44.5 (−105 / −112) · ML Missouri +115, Texas −135
Caesars	Texas −2.5 (−117) · O/U 44 (−110 / −109) · ML Missouri +122, Texas −143
Fanatics	Texas −2.5 (−120) · O/U 44 (−110 / −110) · ML Missouri +120, Texas −145

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 12:00 PM ET

Open Texas −3.5 locked Fri 30 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 11:00 AM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Texas −3.5 → not yet → not yet

Tulsa18

Tulane (H)33

Sat 12:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Tulsa	Tulane (H)
ATO	+15.2	−15.2
DraftKings	−1.5−110	+1.5−110
FanDuel	−1.5−115	+1.5−105, best number
BetMGM	−1.5−110	+1.5−108
Caesars	−1.5−108	+1.5−112
Fanatics	−1−110, best number	+1−110

ATO−15.2TulaneHome win 84%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+1.5TulaneFanDuel (−105)Over 49.5 FanDuel (−115)Under 50.5 BetMGM (−112)

Gap16.7 ptstoward Tulane

Our lean Not locked yetTulane +1.5

What the model sees

Projected score Tulsa 18 at Tulane 33, on DraftKings' total of 50.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Tulane −15.2 against the best book number on our side, Tulsa −1.5 (FanDuel), 16.7 points toward Tulane. We give Tulane 84% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 48%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Tulsa to win	16%	52%	-36.2 pts
Tulane to win	84%	48%	+36.2 pts
Tulane +1.5	87%	50%	+16.7 pts
Tulsa −1.5	13%	50%	-16.7 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		84%
Books (no-vig consensus)	50	no-vig	48%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Tulane: +1.5 at FanDuel; no-vig spread Tulsa −1.5, Tulsa covers 50.2%; no-vig total 50, over 50.0%; Tulane wins 48.1%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Tulsa −1.5 (−110) · O/U 50.5 (−105 / −115) · ML Tulane −102, Tulsa −118
FanDuel	Tulsa −1.5 (−115) · O/U 49.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Tulane +102, Tulsa −122
BetMGM	Tulsa −1.5 (−110) · O/U 50.5 (−105 / −112) · ML Tulane −102, Tulsa −118
Caesars	Tulsa −1.5 (−108) · O/U 50 (−110 / −110) · ML Tulane +101, Tulsa −120
Fanatics	Tulsa −1 (−110) · O/U 50 (−110 / −110) · ML Tulane −105, Tulsa −115

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 12:00 PM ET

Open Tulane +3 locked Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 11:00 AM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Tulane +3 → not yet → not yet

5UCLA19

Minnesota (H)20

Sat 12:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	UCLA	Minnesota (H)
ATO	+0.4	−0.4
DraftKings	−6−112, best number	+6−108
FanDuel	−6.5−105	+6.5−115
BetMGM	−6.5−108	+6.5−110, best number
Caesars	−6−112, best number	+6−108
Fanatics	−6.5−110	+6.5−110, best number

ATO−0.4MinnesotaHome win 51%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+6.5MinnesotaBetMGM, Fanatics (−110)Over 39.5 Caesars (−107)Under 39.5 BetMGM (−108)

Gap6.9 ptstoward Minnesota

Our lean Not locked yetMinnesota +6.5

What the model sees

Projected score UCLA 19 at Minnesota 20, on DraftKings' total of 39.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Minnesota −0.4 against the best book number on our side, UCLA −6.5 (BetMGM, Fanatics), 6.9 points toward Minnesota. We give Minnesota 51% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 32%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
UCLA to win	49%	68%	-18.8 pts
Minnesota to win	51%	32%	+18.8 pts
Minnesota +6.5	68%	50%	+6.9 pts
UCLA −6.5	32%	50%	-6.9 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		51%
Books (no-vig consensus)	39.5	no-vig	32%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Minnesota: +6.5 at BetMGM, Fanatics; no-vig spread UCLA −6.5, UCLA covers 49.6%; no-vig total 39.5, over 49.9%; Minnesota wins 32.3%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	UCLA −6 (−112) · O/U 39.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Minnesota +205, UCLA −250
FanDuel	UCLA −6.5 (−105) · O/U 39.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Minnesota +188, UCLA −225
BetMGM	UCLA −6.5 (−108) · O/U 39.5 (−110 / −108) · ML Minnesota +195, UCLA −235
Caesars	UCLA −6 (−112) · O/U 39.5 (−107 / −113) · ML Minnesota +197, UCLA −240
Fanatics	UCLA −6.5 (−110) · O/U 39.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Minnesota +200, UCLA −245

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 12:00 PM ET

Open Minnesota +6.5 locked Fri 30 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 11:00 AM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Minnesota +6.5 → not yet → not yet

Duke26

NC State (H)25

Sat 12:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Duke	NC State (H)
ATO	−1	+1
DraftKings	−6−110	+6−110
FanDuel	−5.5−122, best number	+5.5+100
BetMGM	−6−110	+6−108, best number
Fanatics	−6−110	+6−110

ATO−1.0DukeHome win 47%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+6NC StateBetMGM (−108)Over 50.5 DraftKings, FanDuel +2 (−110)Under 50.5 BetMGM (−108)

Gap5.0 ptstoward NC State

Our lean Not locked yetNC State +6

What the model sees

Projected score Duke 26 at NC State 25, on DraftKings' total of 50.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Duke −1.0 against the best book number on our side, Duke −6 (BetMGM), 5.0 points toward NC State. We give NC State 47% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 33%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Duke to win	53%	67%	-14.0 pts
NC State to win	47%	33%	+14.0 pts
NC State +6	63%	50%	+5.0 pts
Duke −6	37%	50%	-5.0 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		47%
Books (no-vig consensus)	50.5	no-vig	33%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on NC State: +6 at BetMGM; no-vig spread Duke −6, Duke covers 50.1%; no-vig total 50.5, over 50.0%; NC State wins 33.4%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Duke −6 (−110) · O/U 50.5 (−110 / −110) · ML NC State +190, Duke −230
FanDuel	Duke −5.5 (−122) · O/U 50.5 (−110 / −110) · ML NC State +188, Duke −225
BetMGM	Duke −6 (−110) · O/U 50.5 (−110 / −108) · ML NC State +188, Duke −225
Fanatics	Duke −6 (−110) · O/U 50.5 (−110 / −110) · ML NC State +185, Duke −225

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 12:30 PM ET

Open NC State +6.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 11:30 AM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: NC State +6.5 → not yet → not yet

Maryland28

Purdue (H)30

Sat 12:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Maryland	Purdue (H)
ATO	+2	−2
DraftKings	+6.5−110	−6.5−110
FanDuel	+6.5−110	−6.5−110
BetMGM	+6.5−110	−6.5−108, best number
Caesars	+6.5−108, best number	−6.5−112
Fanatics	+6.5−110	−6.5−110

ATO−2.0PurdueHome win 55%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+6.5MarylandCaesars (−108)Over 57.5 BetMGM (−108)Under 57.5 DraftKings, FanDuel +2 (−110)

Gap4.5 ptstoward Maryland

Our lean Not locked yetMaryland +6.5

What the model sees

Projected score Maryland 28 at Purdue 30, on DraftKings' total of 57.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Purdue −2.0 against the best book number on our side, Purdue −6.5 (Caesars), 4.5 points toward Maryland. We give Purdue 55% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 67%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Maryland to win	45%	33%	+11.7 pts
Purdue to win	55%	67%	-11.7 pts
Purdue −6.5	38%	50%	-4.5 pts
Maryland +6.5	62%	50%	+4.5 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		55%
Books (no-vig consensus)	57.5	no-vig	67%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Maryland: +6.5 at Caesars; no-vig spread Purdue −6.5, Purdue covers 50.0%; no-vig total 57.5, over 50.0%; Purdue wins 67.1%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Purdue −6.5 (−110) · O/U 57.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Purdue −245, Maryland +200
FanDuel	Purdue −6.5 (−110) · O/U 57.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Purdue −215, Maryland +180
BetMGM	Purdue −6.5 (−108) · O/U 57.5 (−108 / −110) · ML Purdue −235, Maryland +190
Caesars	Purdue −6.5 (−112) · O/U 57.5 (−112 / −112) · ML Purdue −240, Maryland +196
Fanatics	Purdue −6.5 (−110) · O/U 57.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Purdue −235, Maryland +190

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 12:30 PM ET

Open Maryland +7 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 11:30 AM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Maryland +7 → not yet → not yet

Arkansas22

Auburn (H)29

Sat 12:45 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Arkansas	Auburn (H)
ATO	+7.5	−7.5
DraftKings	+10.5−105	−10.5−115
FanDuel	+10.5−110	−10.5−110, best number
BetMGM	+10.5−108	−10.5−110, best number
Fanatics	+11−110, best number	−11−110

ATO−7.5AuburnHome win 69%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+11ArkansasFanatics (−110)Over 50.5 FanDuel (−106)Under 50.5 DraftKings (−102)

Gap3.5 ptstoward Arkansas

Our lean Not locked yetArkansas +11

What the model sees

Projected score Arkansas 22 at Auburn 29, on DraftKings' total of 50.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Auburn −7.5 against the best book number on our side, Auburn −11 (Fanatics), 3.5 points toward Arkansas. We give Auburn 69% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 77%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Arkansas to win	31%	23%	+8.2 pts
Auburn to win	69%	77%	-8.2 pts
Auburn −11	41%	50%	-3.5 pts
Arkansas +11	59%	50%	+3.5 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		69%
Books (no-vig consensus)	50.5	no-vig	77%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Arkansas: +11 at Fanatics; no-vig spread Auburn −10.5, Auburn covers 50.4%; no-vig total 50.5, over 50.8%; Auburn wins 77.1%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Auburn −10.5 (−115) · O/U 50.5 (−118 / −102) · ML Auburn −425, Arkansas +330
FanDuel	Auburn −10.5 (−110) · O/U 50.5 (−106 / −114) · ML Auburn −410, Arkansas +320
BetMGM	Auburn −10.5 (−110) · O/U 50.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Auburn −400, Arkansas +320
Fanatics	Auburn −11 (−110) · O/U 50.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Auburn −400, Arkansas +310

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 12:45 PM ET

Open Arkansas +12.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 11:45 AM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Arkansas +12.5 → not yet → not yet

Oklahoma State25

Kansas State (H)37

Sat 1:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Oklahoma State	Kansas State (H)
ATO	+11.8	−11.8
DraftKings	−3.5−108	+3.5−112
FanDuel	−3.5−106, best number	+3.5−114
BetMGM	−3.5−108	+3.5−110, best number
Fanatics	−3.5−110	+3.5−110, best number

ATO−11.8Kansas StateHome win 78%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+3.5Kansas StateBetMGM, Fanatics (−110)Over 61.5 FanDuel (−115)Under 62.5 DraftKings, BetMGM (−115)

Gap15.3 ptstoward Kansas State

Our lean Not locked yetKansas State +3.5

What the model sees

Projected score Oklahoma State 25 at Kansas State 37, on DraftKings' total of 62.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Kansas State −11.8 against the best book number on our side, Oklahoma State −3.5 (BetMGM, Fanatics), 15.3 points toward Kansas State. We give Kansas State 78% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 40%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Oklahoma State to win	22%	60%	-38.7 pts
Kansas State to win	78%	40%	+38.7 pts
Kansas State +3.5	84%	50%	+15.3 pts
Oklahoma State −3.5	16%	50%	-15.3 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		78%
Books (no-vig consensus)	62.5	no-vig	40%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Kansas State: +3.5 at BetMGM, Fanatics; no-vig spread Oklahoma State −3.5, Oklahoma State covers 49.6%; no-vig total 62.5, over 48.9%; Kansas State wins 39.6%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Oklahoma State −3.5 (−108) · O/U 62.5 (−105 / −115) · ML Kansas State +145, Oklahoma State −175
FanDuel	Oklahoma State −3.5 (−106) · O/U 61.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Kansas State +132, Oklahoma State −160
BetMGM	Oklahoma State −3.5 (−108) · O/U 62.5 (−105 / −115) · ML Kansas State +140, Oklahoma State −175
Fanatics	Oklahoma State −3.5 (−110) · O/U 62 (−110 / −110) · ML Kansas State +150, Oklahoma State −180

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 1:00 PM ET

Open Kansas State +6.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 12:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Kansas State +6.5 → not yet → not yet

Old Dominion23

Coastal Carolina (H)22

Sat 1:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Old Dominion	Coastal Carolina (H)
ATO	−0.3	+0.3
DraftKings	+7.5−115	−7.5−105
FanDuel	+7.5−115	−7.5−105
BetMGM	+7.5−112, best number	−7.5−105
Caesars	+7.5−114	−7.5−106
Fanatics	+7−105	−7−115, best number

ATO−0.3Old DominionHome win 49%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+7.5Old DominionBetMGM (−112)Over 44.5 DraftKings, BetMGM +1 (−110)Under 45.5 FanDuel (−112)

Gap7.8 ptstoward Old Dominion

Our lean Not locked yetOld Dominion +7.5

What the model sees

Projected score Old Dominion 23 at Coastal Carolina 22, on DraftKings' total of 44.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Old Dominion −0.3 against the best book number on our side, Coastal Carolina −7.5 (BetMGM), 7.8 points toward Old Dominion. We give Coastal Carolina 49% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 71%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Old Dominion to win	51%	29%	+22.1 pts
Coastal Carolina to win	49%	71%	-22.1 pts
Coastal Carolina −7.5	30%	50%	-7.8 pts
Old Dominion +7.5	70%	50%	+7.8 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		49%
Books (no-vig consensus)	44.5	no-vig	71%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Old Dominion: +7.5 at BetMGM; no-vig spread Coastal Carolina −7.5, Coastal Carolina covers 49.0%; no-vig total 44.5, over 50.0%; Coastal Carolina wins 71.4%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Coastal Carolina −7.5 (−105) · O/U 44.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Coastal Carolina −290, Old Dominion +235
FanDuel	Coastal Carolina −7.5 (−105) · O/U 45.5 (−108 / −112) · ML Coastal Carolina −285, Old Dominion +235
BetMGM	Coastal Carolina −7.5 (−105) · O/U 44.5 (−110 / −108) · ML Coastal Carolina −285, Old Dominion +230
Caesars	Coastal Carolina −7.5 (−106) · O/U 44.5 (−112 / −112) · ML Coastal Carolina −295, Old Dominion +240
Fanatics	Coastal Carolina −7 (−115) · O/U 44.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Coastal Carolina −300, Old Dominion +240

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 1:00 PM ET

Open Old Dominion +7 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 12:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Old Dominion +7 → not yet → not yet

Georgia State25

App State (H)31

Sat 2:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Georgia State	App State (H)
ATO	+5.8	−5.8
DraftKings	+3.5−110	−3.5−110, best number
FanDuel	+4.5−115, best number	−4.5−105
BetMGM	+3.5−108	−3.5−110, best number
Caesars	+3.5−112	−3.5−112
Fanatics	+3.5−110	−3.5−110, best number

ATO−5.8App StateHome win 65%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−3.5App StateDraftKings, BetMGM +1 (−110)Over 55.5 Fanatics (−110)Under 56.5 BetMGM (−110)

Gap2.3 ptstoward App State

Our lean Not locked yetApp State −3.5

What the model sees

Projected score Georgia State 25 at App State 31, on DraftKings' total of 55.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is App State −5.8 against the best book number on our side, App State −3.5 (DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics), 2.3 points toward App State. We give App State 65% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 62%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Georgia State to win	35%	38%	-3.3 pts
App State to win	65%	62%	+3.3 pts
App State −3.5	56%	50%	+2.3 pts
Georgia State +3.5	44%	50%	-2.3 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		65%
Books (no-vig consensus)	56.5	no-vig	62%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on App State: −3.5 at DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics; no-vig spread App State −3.5, App State covers 50.0%; no-vig total 56.5, over 49.6%; App State wins 61.6%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	App State −3.5 (−110) · O/U 55.5 (−112 / −108) · ML App State −180, Georgia State +150
FanDuel	App State −4.5 (−105) · O/U 56.5 (−108 / −112) · ML App State −176, Georgia State +146
BetMGM	App State −3.5 (−110) · O/U 56.5 (−108 / −110) · ML App State −185, Georgia State +150
Caesars	App State −3.5 (−112) · O/U 56.5 (−107 / −113) · ML App State −179, Georgia State +150
Fanatics	App State −3.5 (−110) · O/U 55.5 (−110 / −110) · ML App State −180, Georgia State +150

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 2:30 PM ET

Open App State −3.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 1:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: App State −3.5 → not yet → not yet

Delaware27

Kennesaw State (H)29

Sat 3:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Delaware	Kennesaw State (H)
ATO	+1.5	−1.5
DraftKings	−2.5−115	+2.5−105, best number
FanDuel	−2.5−110, best number	+2.5−110
BetMGM	−2.5−112	+2.5−105, best number
Caesars	−2.5−110, best number	+2.5−110
Fanatics	−2.5−115	+2.5−105, best number

ATO−1.5Kennesaw StateHome win 54%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+2.5Kennesaw StateDraftKings, BetMGM +1 (−105)Over 55.5 FanDuel (−106)Under 56.5 DraftKings (−112)

Gap4.0 ptstoward Kennesaw State

Our lean Not locked yetKennesaw State +2.5

What the model sees

Projected score Delaware 27 at Kennesaw State 29, on DraftKings' total of 56.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Kennesaw State −1.5 against the best book number on our side, Delaware −2.5 (DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics), 4.0 points toward Kennesaw State. We give Kennesaw State 54% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 45%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Delaware to win	46%	55%	-9.2 pts
Kennesaw State to win	54%	45%	+9.2 pts
Kennesaw State +2.5	60%	50%	+4.0 pts
Delaware −2.5	40%	50%	-4.0 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		54%
Books (no-vig consensus)	56	no-vig	45%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Kennesaw State: +2.5 at DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics; no-vig spread Delaware −2.5, Delaware covers 50.6%; no-vig total 56, over 50.0%; Kennesaw State wins 44.8%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Delaware −2.5 (−115) · O/U 56.5 (−108 / −112) · ML Kennesaw State +114, Delaware −135
FanDuel	Delaware −2.5 (−110) · O/U 55.5 (−106 / −114) · ML Kennesaw State +112, Delaware −134
BetMGM	Delaware −2.5 (−112) · O/U 55.5 (−108 / −110) · ML Kennesaw State +115, Delaware −140
Caesars	Delaware −2.5 (−110) · O/U 56 (−110 / −110) · ML Kennesaw State +113, Delaware −134
Fanatics	Delaware −2.5 (−115) · O/U 56 (−110 / −110) · ML Kennesaw State +115, Delaware −140

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 3:00 PM ET

Open Kennesaw State +3 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 2:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Kennesaw State +3 → not yet → not yet

Texas A&M26

23South Carolina (H)25

Sat 3:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Texas A&M	South Carolina (H)
ATO	−0.3	+0.3
DraftKings	+7−110	−7−110, best number
FanDuel	+7.5−122, best number	−7.5+100
BetMGM	+7−105	−7−112
Caesars	+7−108	−7−112
Fanatics	+7−110	−7−110, best number

ATO−0.3Texas A&MHome win 49%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+7.5Texas A&MFanDuel (−122)Over 51.5 DraftKings, Fanatics (−105)Under 51.5 FanDuel, BetMGM (−110)

Gap7.8 ptstoward Texas A&M

Our lean Not locked yetTexas A&M +7.5

What the model sees

Projected score Texas A&M 26 at South Carolina 25, on DraftKings' total of 51.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Texas A&M −0.3 against the best book number on our side, South Carolina −7.5 (FanDuel), 7.8 points toward Texas A&M. We give South Carolina 49% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 71%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Texas A&M to win	51%	29%	+21.6 pts
South Carolina to win	49%	71%	-21.6 pts
South Carolina −7.5	30%	50%	-7.8 pts
Texas A&M +7.5	70%	50%	+7.8 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		49%
Books (no-vig consensus)	51.5	no-vig	71%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Texas A&M: +7.5 at FanDuel; no-vig spread South Carolina −7, South Carolina covers 50.3%; no-vig total 51.5, over 49.5%; South Carolina wins 70.9%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	South Carolina −7 (−110) · O/U 51.5 (−105 / −115) · ML South Carolina −290, Texas A&M +235
FanDuel	South Carolina −7.5 (+100) · O/U 51.5 (−110 / −110) · ML South Carolina −275, Texas A&M +220
BetMGM	South Carolina −7 (−112) · O/U 51.5 (−108 / −110) · ML South Carolina −285, Texas A&M +230
Caesars	South Carolina −7 (−112) · O/U 51.5 (−112 / −112) · ML South Carolina −290, Texas A&M +230
Fanatics	South Carolina −7 (−110) · O/U 51.5 (−105 / −115) · ML South Carolina −285, Texas A&M +230

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 3:00 PM ET

Open Texas A&M +6.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 2:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Texas A&M +6.5 → not yet → not yet

UL Monroe19

Arkansas State (H)33

Sat 3:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	UL Monroe	Arkansas State (H)
ATO	+13.7	−13.7
DraftKings	+14.5−110	−14.5−110
FanDuel	+14.5−105, best number	−14.5−115
BetMGM	+14.5−110	−14.5−108, best number
Caesars	+14.5−110	−14.5−110
Fanatics	+14.5−110	−14.5−110

ATO−13.7Arkansas StateHome win 82%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−14.5Arkansas StateBetMGM (−108)Over 52.5 FanDuel (−105)Under 52.5 DraftKings, BetMGM +2 (−110)

Gap0.8 ptstoward UL Monroe

Our lean Not locked yetNo lean

What the model sees

Projected score UL Monroe 19 at Arkansas State 33, on DraftKings' total of 52.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Arkansas State −13.7 against the best book number on our side, Arkansas State −14.5 (BetMGM), 0.8 points toward UL Monroe. We give Arkansas State 82% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 84%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
UL Monroe to win	18%	16%	+2.1 pts
Arkansas State to win	82%	84%	-2.1 pts
Arkansas State −14.5	48%	50%	-0.8 pts
UL Monroe +14.5	52%	50%	+0.8 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		82%
Books (no-vig consensus)	52.5	no-vig	84%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Arkansas State: −14.5 at BetMGM; no-vig spread Arkansas State −14.5, Arkansas State covers 50.2%; no-vig total 52.5, over 49.7%; Arkansas State wins 83.9%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Arkansas State −14.5 (−110) · O/U 52.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Arkansas State −675, UL Monroe +490
FanDuel	Arkansas State −14.5 (−115) · O/U 52.5 (−105 / −115) · ML Arkansas State −690, UL Monroe +500
BetMGM	Arkansas State −14.5 (−108) · O/U 52.5 (−108 / −110) · ML Arkansas State −650, UL Monroe +500
Caesars	Arkansas State −14.5 (−110) · O/U 52.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Arkansas State −750, UL Monroe +500
Fanatics	Arkansas State −14.5 (−110) · O/U 52.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Arkansas State −700, UL Monroe +500

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 3:00 PM ET

Open No lean locked Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 2:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Arkansas State −14.5 → not yet → not yet

9Alabama28

15LSU (H)25

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Alabama	LSU (H)
ATO	−3.1	+3.1
DraftKings	+5.5−112	−5.5−108
FanDuel	+5.5−110, best number	−5.5−110
BetMGM	+5.5−110, best number	−5.5−108
Caesars	+5.5−110, best number	−5.5−109
Fanatics	+5−110	−5−110, best number

ATO−3.1AlabamaHome win 42%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+5.5AlabamaFanDuel, BetMGM +1 (−110)Over 52 Fanatics (−110)Under 52.5 BetMGM (−112)

Gap8.6 ptstoward Alabama

Our lean Not locked yetAlabama +5.5

What the model sees

Projected score Alabama 28 at LSU 25, on DraftKings' total of 52.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Alabama −3.1 against the best book number on our side, LSU −5.5 (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars), 8.6 points toward Alabama. We give LSU 42% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 65%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Alabama to win	58%	35%	+23.5 pts
LSU to win	42%	65%	-23.5 pts
LSU −5.5	28%	50%	-8.6 pts
Alabama +5.5	72%	50%	+8.6 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		42%
Books (no-vig consensus)	52.5	no-vig	65%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Alabama: +5.5 at FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars; no-vig spread LSU −5.5, LSU covers 49.8%; no-vig total 52.5, over 49.0%; LSU wins 65.3%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	LSU −5.5 (−108) · O/U 52.5 (−105 / −115) · ML LSU −218, Alabama +180
FanDuel	LSU −5.5 (−110) · O/U 52.5 (−105 / −115) · ML LSU −215, Alabama +176
BetMGM	LSU −5.5 (−108) · O/U 52.5 (−105 / −112) · ML LSU −220, Alabama +175
Caesars	LSU −5.5 (−109) · O/U 52.5 (−106 / −114) · ML LSU −209, Alabama +174
Fanatics	LSU −5 (−110) · O/U 52 (−110 / −110) · ML LSU −215, Alabama +175

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 3:30 PM ET

Open Alabama +4.5 locked Fri 30 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 2:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Alabama +4.5 → not yet → not yet

Charlotte18

UAB (H)30

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Charlotte	UAB (H)
ATO	+11.8	−11.8
DraftKings	+11.5−115, best number	−11.5−105
FanDuel	+10.5−124	−10.5+102, best number
BetMGM	+10.5−110	−10.5−108
Caesars	+10.5−109	−10.5−110
Fanatics	+11−110	−11−110

ATO−11.8UABHome win 78%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−10.5UABFanDuel (+102)Over 47.5 DraftKings, Caesars +1 (−110)Under 48.5 FanDuel (−112)

Gap1.3 ptstoward UAB

Our lean Not locked yetNo lean

What the model sees

Projected score Charlotte 18 at UAB 30, on DraftKings' total of 47.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is UAB −11.8 against the best book number on our side, UAB −10.5 (FanDuel), 1.3 points toward UAB. We give UAB 78% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 77%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Charlotte to win	22%	23%	-1.4 pts
UAB to win	78%	77%	+1.4 pts
UAB −10.5	53%	50%	+1.3 pts
Charlotte +10.5	47%	50%	-1.3 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		78%
Books (no-vig consensus)	47.5	no-vig	77%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on UAB: −10.5 at FanDuel; no-vig spread UAB −10.5, UAB covers 49.0%; no-vig total 47.5, over 50.2%; UAB wins 76.8%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	UAB −11.5 (−105) · O/U 47.5 (−110 / −110) · ML UAB −425, Charlotte +330
FanDuel	UAB −10.5 (+102) · O/U 48.5 (−108 / −112) · ML UAB −360, Charlotte +280
BetMGM	UAB −10.5 (−108) · O/U 47.5 (−112 / −105) · ML UAB −400, Charlotte +310
Caesars	UAB −10.5 (−110) · O/U 47.5 (−110 / −110) · ML UAB −420, Charlotte +320
Fanatics	UAB −11 (−110) · O/U 47.5 (−110 / −110) · ML UAB −425, Charlotte +325

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 3:30 PM ET

Open No lean locked Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 2:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: UAB −10.5 → not yet → not yet

Cincinnati28

17Houston (H)34

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Cincinnati	Houston (H)
ATO	+6.1	−6.1
DraftKings	+11.5−115, best number	−11.5−105
FanDuel	+10.5−110	−10.5−110
BetMGM	+10.5−110	−10.5−108, best number
Fanatics	+11−110	−11−110

ATO−6.1HoustonHome win 66%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+11.5CincinnatiDraftKings (−115)Over 61.5 FanDuel (−115)Under 62.5 DraftKings, BetMGM +1 (−110)

Gap5.4 ptstoward Cincinnati

Our lean Not locked yetCincinnati +11.5

What the model sees

Projected score Cincinnati 28 at Houston 34, on DraftKings' total of 62.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Houston −6.1 against the best book number on our side, Houston −11.5 (DraftKings), 5.4 points toward Cincinnati. We give Houston 66% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 78%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Cincinnati to win	34%	22%	+12.5 pts
Houston to win	66%	78%	-12.5 pts
Houston −11.5	36%	50%	-5.4 pts
Cincinnati +11.5	64%	50%	+5.4 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		66%
Books (no-vig consensus)	62.5	no-vig	78%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Cincinnati: +11.5 at DraftKings; no-vig spread Houston −10.5, Houston covers 49.9%; no-vig total 62.5, over 49.9%; Houston wins 78.1%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Houston −11.5 (−105) · O/U 62.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Houston −440, Cincinnati +340
FanDuel	Houston −10.5 (−110) · O/U 61.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Houston −430, Cincinnati +330
BetMGM	Houston −10.5 (−108) · O/U 62.5 (−108 / −110) · ML Houston −450, Cincinnati +340
Fanatics	Houston −11 (−110) · O/U 62.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Houston −450, Cincinnati +340

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 3:30 PM ET

Open Cincinnati +10.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 2:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Cincinnati +10.5 → not yet → not yet

Marshall26

Georgia Southern (H)29

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Marshall	Georgia Southern (H)
ATO	+3.1	−3.1
DraftKings	+10−108, best number	−10−112
FanDuel	+9.5+100	−9.5−122, best number
BetMGM	+10−112	−10−105
Caesars	+10−109	−10−110
Fanatics	+10−110	−10−110

ATO−3.1Georgia SouthernHome win 58%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+10MarshallDraftKings (−108)Over 54.5 FanDuel (−105)Under 54.5 DraftKings (−105)

Gap6.9 ptstoward Marshall

Our lean Not locked yetMarshall +10

What the model sees

Projected score Marshall 26 at Georgia Southern 29, on DraftKings' total of 54.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Georgia Southern −3.1 against the best book number on our side, Georgia Southern −10 (DraftKings), 6.9 points toward Marshall. We give Georgia Southern 58% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 77%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Marshall to win	42%	23%	+18.4 pts
Georgia Southern to win	58%	77%	-18.4 pts
Georgia Southern −10	32%	50%	-6.9 pts
Marshall +10	68%	50%	+6.9 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		58%
Books (no-vig consensus)	54.5	no-vig	77%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Marshall: +10 at DraftKings; no-vig spread Georgia Southern −10, Georgia Southern covers 49.9%; no-vig total 54.5, over 50.0%; Georgia Southern wins 76.5%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Georgia Southern −10 (−112) · O/U 54.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Georgia Southern −395, Marshall +310
FanDuel	Georgia Southern −9.5 (−122) · O/U 54.5 (−105 / −115) · ML Georgia Southern −400, Marshall +310
BetMGM	Georgia Southern −10 (−105) · O/U 54.5 (−110 / −108) · ML Georgia Southern −375, Marshall +310
Caesars	Georgia Southern −10 (−110) · O/U 54.5 (−112 / −112) · ML Georgia Southern −390, Marshall +305
Fanatics	Georgia Southern −10 (−110) · O/U 54.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Georgia Southern −400, Marshall +310

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 3:30 PM ET

Open Marshall +8.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 2:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Marshall +8.5 → not yet → not yet

Merrimack

14Wake Forest (H)

Sat 3:30 PM ET FCS

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Merrimack	Wake Forest (H)
ATO	+44.9	−44.9
FanDuel	+48.5−110, best number	−48.5−110
Fanatics	+47.5−110	−47.5−110, best number

ATO−44.9Wake ForestHome win 100%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+48.5MerrimackFanDuel (−110)Over 58.5 Fanatics (−115)Under 59.5 FanDuel (−110)

Gap3.6 ptstoward Merrimackrating scale, not the matchup

Our lean Not locked yetMerrimack +48.5

What the model sees

Our spread is Wake Forest −44.9 against the best book number on our side, Wake Forest −48.5 (FanDuel), 3.6 points toward Merrimack. We give Wake Forest 100% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 99%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Merrimack to win	0%	1%	-0.8 pts
Wake Forest to win	100%	99%	+0.8 pts
Wake Forest −48.5	41%	50%	-3.6 pts
Merrimack +48.5	59%	50%	+3.6 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		100%
Books (no-vig consensus)	58.5	no-vig	99%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Merrimack: +48.5 at FanDuel; no-vig spread Wake Forest −47.5, Wake Forest covers 50.0%; no-vig total 58.5, over 51.1%; Wake Forest wins 99.0%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
FanDuel	Wake Forest −48.5 (−110) · O/U 59.5 (−110 / −110)
Fanatics	Wake Forest −47.5 (−110) · O/U 58.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Wake Forest −50000, Merrimack +10000

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 3:30 PM ET

Open not taken yet
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 2:30 PM ET

Oregon19

11Ohio State (H)29

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Oregon	Ohio State (H)
ATO	+10.2	−10.2
DraftKings	+7−108	−7−112, best number
FanDuel	+7.5−115, best number	−7.5−105
BetMGM	+7−105	−7−115
Caesars	+7−107	−7−113
Fanatics	+7−105	−7−115

ATO−10.2Ohio StateHome win 75%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−7Ohio StateDraftKings (−112)Over 48 Fanatics (−110)Under 48.5 FanDuel (−110)

Gap3.2 ptstoward Ohio State

Our lean Not locked yetOhio State −7

What the model sees

Projected score Oregon 19 at Ohio State 29, on DraftKings' total of 48.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Ohio State −10.2 against the best book number on our side, Ohio State −7 (DraftKings), 3.2 points toward Ohio State. We give Ohio State 75% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 70%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Oregon to win	25%	30%	-4.7 pts
Ohio State to win	75%	70%	+4.7 pts
Ohio State −7	58%	50%	+3.2 pts
Oregon +7	42%	50%	-3.2 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		75%
Books (no-vig consensus)	48.5	no-vig	70%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Ohio State: −7 at DraftKings; no-vig spread Ohio State −7, Ohio State covers 50.8%; no-vig total 48.5, over 49.4%; Ohio State wins 70.3%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Ohio State −7 (−112) · O/U 48.5 (−105 / −115) · ML Ohio State −278, Oregon +225
FanDuel	Ohio State −7.5 (−105) · O/U 48.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Ohio State −265, Oregon +215
BetMGM	Ohio State −7 (−115) · O/U 48.5 (−105 / −112) · ML Ohio State −275, Oregon +220
Caesars	Ohio State −7 (−113) · O/U 48.5 (−107 / −113) · ML Ohio State −280, Oregon +225
Fanatics	Ohio State −7 (−115) · O/U 48 (−110 / −110) · ML Ohio State −285, Oregon +230

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 3:30 PM ET

Open Oregon +14 locked Fri 30 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 2:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Ohio State −14 → not yet → not yet

Penn State23

Washington (H)21

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Penn State	Washington (H)
ATO	−2.4	+2.4
DraftKings	+2.5−115, best number	−2.5−105
FanDuel	+1.5−105	−1.5−115, best number
BetMGM	+2−110	−2−108
Caesars	+1.5−105	−1.5−115, best number
Fanatics	+2−110	−2−110

ATO−2.4Penn StateHome win 44%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+2.5Penn StateDraftKings (−115)Over 43.5 FanDuel (−115)Under 44.5 Caesars, Fanatics (−110)

Gap4.9 ptstoward Penn State

Our lean Not locked yetPenn State +2.5

What the model sees

Projected score Penn State 23 at Washington 21, on DraftKings' total of 44.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Penn State −2.4 against the best book number on our side, Washington −2.5 (DraftKings), 4.9 points toward Penn State. We give Washington 44% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 53%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Penn State to win	56%	47%	+9.0 pts
Washington to win	44%	53%	-9.0 pts
Washington −2.5	37%	50%	-4.9 pts
Penn State +2.5	63%	50%	+4.9 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		44%
Books (no-vig consensus)	44.5	no-vig	53%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Penn State: +2.5 at DraftKings; no-vig spread Washington −2, Washington covers 49.9%; no-vig total 44.5, over 49.7%; Washington wins 52.8%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Washington −2.5 (−105) · O/U 44.5 (−108 / −112) · ML Washington −122, Penn State +102
FanDuel	Washington −1.5 (−115) · O/U 43.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Washington −125, Penn State +104
BetMGM	Washington −2 (−108) · O/U 44.5 (−105 / −112) · ML Washington −120, Penn State +100
Caesars	Washington −1.5 (−115) · O/U 44.5 (−109 / −110) · ML Washington −122, Penn State +103
Fanatics	Washington −2 (−110) · O/U 44.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Washington −125, Penn State +105

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 3:30 PM ET

Open Penn State +2.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 2:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Penn State +2.5 → not yet → not yet

Temple21

Navy (H)33

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Temple	Navy (H)
ATO	+12.1	−12.1
DraftKings	+7.5−115	−7.5−105
FanDuel	+6.5+116	−6.5−142, best number
BetMGM	+7.5−112	−7.5−105
Caesars	+7.5−109, best number	−7.5−110
Fanatics	+7.5−115	−7.5−105

ATO−12.1NavyHome win 79%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−6.5NavyFanDuel (−142)Over 52.5 FanDuel (−110)Under 53.5 DraftKings, BetMGM +2 (−110)

Gap5.6 ptstoward Navy

Our lean Not locked yetNavy −6.5

What the model sees

Projected score Temple 21 at Navy 33, on DraftKings' total of 53.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Navy −12.1 against the best book number on our side, Navy −6.5 (FanDuel), 5.6 points toward Navy. We give Navy 79% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 72%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Temple to win	21%	28%	-6.5 pts
Navy to win	79%	72%	+6.5 pts
Navy −6.5	64%	50%	+5.6 pts
Temple +6.5	36%	50%	-5.6 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		79%
Books (no-vig consensus)	53.5	no-vig	72%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Navy: −6.5 at FanDuel; no-vig spread Navy −7.5, Navy covers 49.3%; no-vig total 53.5, over 50.0%; Navy wins 72.4%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Navy −7.5 (−105) · O/U 53.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Navy −310, Temple +250
FanDuel	Navy −6.5 (−142) · O/U 52.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Navy −300, Temple +245
BetMGM	Navy −7.5 (−105) · O/U 53.5 (−108 / −110) · ML Navy −300, Temple +250
Caesars	Navy −7.5 (−110) · O/U 53.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Navy −310, Temple +245
Fanatics	Navy −7.5 (−105) · O/U 53.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Navy −310, Temple +250

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 3:30 PM ET

Open Navy −7.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 2:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Navy −7.5 → not yet → not yet

Western Kentucky30

Middle Tennessee (H)24

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee (H)
ATO	−6.1	+6.1
DraftKings	+1.5−115, best number	−1.5−105
FanDuel	−1.5−106	+1.5−114, best number
BetMGM	+1−110	−1−108
Caesars	+1−110	−1−110
Fanatics	+1.5−115, best number	−1.5−105

ATO−6.1Western KentuckyHome win 34%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+1.5Western KentuckyDraftKings, Fanatics (−115)Over 52.5 FanDuel (−110)Under 53.5 BetMGM, Fanatics (−110)

Gap7.6 ptstoward Western Kentucky

Our lean Not locked yetWestern Kentucky +1.5

What the model sees

Projected score Western Kentucky 30 at Middle Tennessee 24, on DraftKings' total of 53.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Western Kentucky −6.1 against the best book number on our side, Middle Tennessee −1.5 (DraftKings, Fanatics), 7.6 points toward Western Kentucky. We give Middle Tennessee 34% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 50%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Western Kentucky to win	66%	50%	+15.7 pts
Middle Tennessee to win	34%	50%	-15.7 pts
Middle Tennessee −1.5	31%	50%	-7.6 pts
Western Kentucky +1.5	69%	50%	+7.6 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		34%
Books (no-vig consensus)	53.5	no-vig	50%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Western Kentucky: +1.5 at DraftKings, Fanatics; no-vig spread Middle Tennessee −1, Middle Tennessee covers 49.9%; no-vig total 53.5, over 49.7%; Middle Tennessee wins 50.1%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Middle Tennessee −1.5 (−105) · O/U 53.5 (−108 / −112) · ML Middle Tennessee −112, Western Kentucky −108
FanDuel	Western Kentucky −1.5 (−106) · O/U 52.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Middle Tennessee −106, Western Kentucky −113
BetMGM	Middle Tennessee −1 (−108) · O/U 53.5 (−108 / −110) · ML Middle Tennessee −110, Western Kentucky −108
Caesars	Middle Tennessee −1 (−110) · O/U 53.5 (−107 / −113) · ML Middle Tennessee −112, Western Kentucky −106
Fanatics	Middle Tennessee −1.5 (−105) · O/U 53.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Middle Tennessee −110, Western Kentucky −110

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 3:30 PM ET

Open Western Kentucky +1.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 2:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Western Kentucky +1.5 → not yet → not yet

UCF22

Kansas (H)27

Sat 3:45 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	UCF	Kansas (H)
ATO	+5.1	−5.1
DraftKings	+3−108, best number	−3−112
FanDuel	+2.5+102	−2.5−124, best number
BetMGM	+3−110	−3−108
Caesars	+3−110	−3−109
Fanatics	+3−110	−3−110

ATO−5.1KansasHome win 63%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−2.5KansasFanDuel (−124)Over 47.5 FanDuel, Caesars (−115)Under 48.5 BetMGM (−115)

Gap2.6 ptstoward Kansas

Our lean Not locked yetKansas −2.5

What the model sees

Projected score UCF 22 at Kansas 27, on DraftKings' total of 48.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Kansas −5.1 against the best book number on our side, Kansas −2.5 (FanDuel), 2.6 points toward Kansas. We give Kansas 63% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 58%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
UCF to win	37%	42%	-5.3 pts
Kansas to win	63%	58%	+5.3 pts
Kansas −2.5	57%	50%	+2.6 pts
UCF +2.5	43%	50%	-2.6 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		63%
Books (no-vig consensus)	47.5	no-vig	58%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Kansas: −2.5 at FanDuel; no-vig spread Kansas −3, Kansas covers 50.0%; no-vig total 47.5, over 51.1%; Kansas wins 57.9%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Kansas −3 (−112) · O/U 48.5 (−102 / −118) · ML Kansas −155, UCF +130
FanDuel	Kansas −2.5 (−124) · O/U 47.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Kansas −150, UCF +125
BetMGM	Kansas −3 (−108) · O/U 48.5 (−105 / −115) · ML Kansas −150, UCF +125
Caesars	Kansas −3 (−109) · O/U 47.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Kansas −152, UCF +129
Fanatics	Kansas −3 (−110) · O/U 48 (−110 / −110) · ML Kansas −155, UCF +130

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 3:45 PM ET

Open Kansas −3 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 2:45 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Kansas −3 → not yet → not yet

Louisiana Tech23

Troy (H)24

Sat 4:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Louisiana Tech	Troy (H)
ATO	+0.5	−0.5
DraftKings	−5.5−110	+5.5−110, best number
FanDuel	−4.5−112, best number	+4.5−108
BetMGM	−5−110	+5−108
Caesars	−5.5−108	+5.5−112
Fanatics	−5.5−110	+5.5−110, best number

ATO−0.5TroyHome win 51%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+5.5TroyDraftKings, Fanatics (−110)Over 46.5 FanDuel (−110)Under 47.5 DraftKings (−118)

Gap6.0 ptstoward Troy

Our lean Not locked yetTroy +5.5

What the model sees

Projected score Louisiana Tech 23 at Troy 24, on DraftKings' total of 47.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Troy −0.5 against the best book number on our side, Louisiana Tech −5.5 (DraftKings, Fanatics), 6.0 points toward Troy. We give Troy 51% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 35%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Louisiana Tech to win	49%	65%	-16.3 pts
Troy to win	51%	35%	+16.3 pts
Troy +5.5	65%	50%	+6.0 pts
Louisiana Tech −5.5	35%	50%	-6.0 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		51%
Books (no-vig consensus)	47	no-vig	35%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Troy: +5.5 at DraftKings, Fanatics; no-vig spread Louisiana Tech −5.5, Louisiana Tech covers 49.9%; no-vig total 47, over 50.0%; Troy wins 35.0%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Louisiana Tech −5.5 (−110) · O/U 47.5 (−102 / −118) · ML Troy +185, Louisiana Tech −225
FanDuel	Louisiana Tech −4.5 (−112) · O/U 46.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Troy +160, Louisiana Tech −192
BetMGM	Louisiana Tech −5 (−110) · O/U 46.5 (−112 / −105) · ML Troy +170, Louisiana Tech −210
Caesars	Louisiana Tech −5.5 (−108) · O/U 47 (−110 / −110) · ML Troy +178, Louisiana Tech −213
Fanatics	Louisiana Tech −5.5 (−110) · O/U 47 (−110 / −110) · ML Troy +175, Louisiana Tech −215

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 4:00 PM ET

Open Troy +6.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 3:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Troy +6.5 → not yet → not yet

Missouri State24

Florida International (H)26

Sat 4:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Missouri State	Florida International (H)
ATO	+2.5	−2.5
DraftKings	+4−110	−4−110
FanDuel	+3.5+100	−3.5−122
BetMGM	+4−108, best number	−4−110
Caesars	+3.5−102	−3.5−120, best number
Fanatics	+4−110	−4−110

ATO−2.5Florida InternationalHome win 57%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+4Missouri StateBetMGM (−108)Over 49.5 FanDuel (−114)Under 50.5 BetMGM (−110)

Gap1.5 ptstoward Missouri State

Our lean Not locked yetMissouri State +4

What the model sees

Projected score Missouri State 24 at Florida International 26, on DraftKings' total of 50.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Florida International −2.5 against the best book number on our side, Florida International −4 (BetMGM), 1.5 points toward Missouri State. We give Florida International 57% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 63%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Missouri State to win	43%	37%	+6.5 pts
Florida International to win	57%	63%	-6.5 pts
Florida International −4	46%	50%	-1.5 pts
Missouri State +4	54%	50%	+1.5 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		57%
Books (no-vig consensus)	50	no-vig	63%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Missouri State: +4 at BetMGM; no-vig spread Florida International −4, Florida International covers 50.1%; no-vig total 50, over 50.0%; Florida International wins 63.0%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Florida International −4 (−110) · O/U 50.5 (−108 / −112) · ML Florida International −192, Missouri State +160
FanDuel	Florida International −3.5 (−122) · O/U 49.5 (−114 / −106) · ML Florida International −188, Missouri State +155
BetMGM	Florida International −4 (−110) · O/U 50.5 (−108 / −110) · ML Florida International −190, Missouri State +160
Caesars	Florida International −3.5 (−120) · O/U 50 (−110 / −110) · ML Florida International −193, Missouri State +161
Fanatics	Florida International −4 (−110) · O/U 50 (−110 / −110) · ML Florida International −195, Missouri State +160

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 4:00 PM ET

Open Missouri State +5.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 3:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Missouri State +5.5 → not yet → not yet

Northern Illinois22

San José State (H)31

Sat 4:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Northern Illinois	San José State (H)
ATO	+9.4	−9.4
DraftKings	+10−108	−10−112
FanDuel	+9.5−104	−9.5−118, best number
BetMGM	+10−110	−10−108
Caesars	+10−110	−10−110
Fanatics	+10.5−115, best number	−10.5−105

ATO−9.4San José StateHome win 73%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−9.5San José StateFanDuel (−118)Over 50.5 FanDuel (−115)Under 52.5 DraftKings (−118)

Gap0.1 ptstoward Northern Illinois

Our lean Not locked yetNo lean

What the model sees

Projected score Northern Illinois 22 at San José State 31, on DraftKings' total of 52.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is San José State −9.4 against the best book number on our side, San José State −9.5 (FanDuel), 0.1 points toward Northern Illinois. We give San José State 73% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 77%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Northern Illinois to win	27%	23%	+3.2 pts
San José State to win	73%	77%	-3.2 pts
San José State −9.5	50%	50%	-0.1 pts
Northern Illinois +9.5	50%	50%	+0.1 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		73%
Books (no-vig consensus)	51.5	no-vig	77%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on San José State: −9.5 at FanDuel; no-vig spread San José State −10, San José State covers 50.1%; no-vig total 51.5, over 50.4%; San José State wins 76.6%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	San José State −10 (−112) · O/U 52.5 (−102 / −118) · ML San José State −395, Northern Illinois +310
FanDuel	San José State −9.5 (−118) · O/U 50.5 (−115 / −105) · ML San José State −385, Northern Illinois +310
BetMGM	San José State −10 (−108) · O/U 51.5 (−108 / −110) · ML San José State −400, Northern Illinois +320
Caesars	San José State −10 (−110) · O/U 52 (−108 / −112) · ML San José State −390, Northern Illinois +300
Fanatics	San José State −10.5 (−105) · O/U 51.5 (−115 / −105) · ML San José State −400, Northern Illinois +310

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 4:00 PM ET

Open Northern Illinois +11.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 2:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 3:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: San José State −11.5 → not yet → not yet

Rice22

North Texas (H)43

Sat 4:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Rice	North Texas (H)
ATO	+21.1	−21.1
DraftKings	+16.5−105	−16.5−115
FanDuel	+16.5−110	−16.5−110, best number
BetMGM	+16.5−108	−16.5−110, best number
Caesars	+16.5−110	−16.5−110, best number
Fanatics	+17−110, best number	−17−110

ATO−21.1North TexasHome win 92%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−16.5North TexasFanDuel, BetMGM +1 (−110)Over 64 Fanatics (−110)Under 64.5 DraftKings, FanDuel +2 (−110)

Gap4.6 ptstoward North Texas

Our lean Not locked yetNorth Texas −16.5

What the model sees

Projected score Rice 22 at North Texas 43, on DraftKings' total of 64.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is North Texas −21.1 against the best book number on our side, North Texas −16.5 (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars), 4.6 points toward North Texas. We give North Texas 92% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 86%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Rice to win	8%	14%	-5.7 pts
North Texas to win	92%	86%	+5.7 pts
North Texas −16.5	62%	50%	+4.6 pts
Rice +16.5	38%	50%	-4.6 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		92%
Books (no-vig consensus)	64.5	no-vig	86%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on North Texas: −16.5 at FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars; no-vig spread North Texas −16.5, North Texas covers 50.3%; no-vig total 64.5, over 49.9%; North Texas wins 86.2%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	North Texas −16.5 (−115) · O/U 64.5 (−110 / −110) · ML North Texas −900, Rice +600
FanDuel	North Texas −16.5 (−110) · O/U 64.5 (−110 / −110) · ML North Texas −800, Rice +570
BetMGM	North Texas −16.5 (−110) · O/U 64.5 (−108 / −110) · ML North Texas −800, Rice +600
Caesars	North Texas −16.5 (−110) · O/U 64.5 (−109 / −110) · ML North Texas −950, Rice +625
Fanatics	North Texas −17 (−110) · O/U 64 (−110 / −110) · ML North Texas −900, Rice +600

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 4:00 PM ET

Open North Texas −16.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 3:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: North Texas −16.5 → not yet → not yet

Rutgers17

Wisconsin (H)28

Sat 4:15 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Rutgers	Wisconsin (H)
ATO	+11	−11
DraftKings	+17.5−118, best number	−17.5−102
FanDuel	+16.5−114	−16.5−106, best number
BetMGM	+17−112	−17−105
Fanatics	+17−110	−17−110

ATO−11.0WisconsinHome win 77%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+17.5RutgersDraftKings (−118)Over 45.5 DraftKings, FanDuel +2 (−110)Under 45.5 BetMGM (−108)

Gap6.5 ptstoward Rutgers

Our lean Not locked yetRutgers +17.5

What the model sees

Projected score Rutgers 17 at Wisconsin 28, on DraftKings' total of 45.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Wisconsin −11.0 against the best book number on our side, Wisconsin −17.5 (DraftKings), 6.5 points toward Rutgers. We give Wisconsin 77% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 86%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Rutgers to win	23%	14%	+9.5 pts
Wisconsin to win	77%	86%	-9.5 pts
Wisconsin −17.5	33%	50%	-6.5 pts
Rutgers +17.5	67%	50%	+6.5 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		77%
Books (no-vig consensus)	45.5	no-vig	86%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Rutgers: +17.5 at DraftKings; no-vig spread Wisconsin −17, Wisconsin covers 49.6%; no-vig total 45.5, over 50.0%; Wisconsin wins 86.1%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Wisconsin −17.5 (−102) · O/U 45.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Wisconsin −900, Rutgers +600
FanDuel	Wisconsin −16.5 (−106) · O/U 45.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Wisconsin −820, Rutgers +570
BetMGM	Wisconsin −17 (−105) · O/U 45.5 (−110 / −108) · ML Wisconsin −800, Rutgers +600
Fanatics	Wisconsin −17 (−110) · O/U 45.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Wisconsin −900, Rutgers +600

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 4:15 PM ET

Open Rutgers +16.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 3:15 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Rutgers +16.5 → not yet → not yet

Vanderbilt23

Mississippi State (H)26

Sat 4:15 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Vanderbilt	Mississippi State (H)
ATO	+2.9	−2.9
DraftKings	+2.5−108	−2.5−112, best number
FanDuel	+2.5+100	−2.5−122
BetMGM	+3−118, best number	−3−102
Caesars	+2.5−103	−2.5−117
Fanatics	+2.5−105	−2.5−115

ATO−2.9Mississippi StateHome win 58%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−2.5Mississippi StateDraftKings (−112)Over 47.5 FanDuel (−114)Under 48.5 DraftKings, BetMGM +2 (−110)

Gap0.4 ptstoward Mississippi State

Our lean Not locked yetNo lean

What the model sees

Projected score Vanderbilt 23 at Mississippi State 26, on DraftKings' total of 48.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Mississippi State −2.9 against the best book number on our side, Mississippi State −2.5 (DraftKings), 0.4 points toward Mississippi State. We give Mississippi State 58% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 55%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Vanderbilt to win	42%	45%	-2.3 pts
Mississippi State to win	58%	55%	+2.3 pts
Mississippi State −2.5	51%	50%	+0.4 pts
Vanderbilt +2.5	49%	50%	-0.4 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		58%
Books (no-vig consensus)	48.5	no-vig	55%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Mississippi State: −2.5 at DraftKings; no-vig spread Mississippi State −2.5, Mississippi State covers 51.3%; no-vig total 48.5, over 49.9%; Mississippi State wins 55.2%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Mississippi State −2.5 (−112) · O/U 48.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Mississippi State −135, Vanderbilt +114
FanDuel	Mississippi State −2.5 (−122) · O/U 47.5 (−114 / −106) · ML Mississippi State −140, Vanderbilt +118
BetMGM	Mississippi State −3 (−102) · O/U 48.5 (−108 / −110) · ML Mississippi State −140, Vanderbilt +115
Caesars	Mississippi State −2.5 (−117) · O/U 48.5 (−109 / −110) · ML Mississippi State −134, Vanderbilt +114
Fanatics	Mississippi State −2.5 (−115) · O/U 48.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Mississippi State −130, Vanderbilt +110

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 4:15 PM ET

Open No lean locked Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 3:15 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Mississippi State −3.5 → not yet → not yet

South Alabama27

Louisiana (H)31

Sat 5:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	South Alabama	Louisiana (H)
ATO	+3.8	−3.8
DraftKings	+9.5−110, best number	−9.5−110
FanDuel	+7.5−110	−7.5−110, best number
BetMGM	+8.5−110	−8.5−108
Caesars	+9.5−110, best number	−9.5−110
Fanatics	+9.5−110, best number	−9.5−110

ATO−3.8LouisianaHome win 60%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+9.5South AlabamaDraftKings, Caesars +1 (−110)Over 57.5 FanDuel (−110)Under 58.5 DraftKings (−115)

Gap5.7 ptstoward South Alabama

Our lean Not locked yetSouth Alabama +9.5

What the model sees

Projected score South Alabama 27 at Louisiana 31, on DraftKings' total of 58.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Louisiana −3.8 against the best book number on our side, Louisiana −9.5 (DraftKings, Caesars, Fanatics), 5.7 points toward South Alabama. We give Louisiana 60% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 74%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
South Alabama to win	40%	26%	+14.1 pts
Louisiana to win	60%	74%	-14.1 pts
Louisiana −9.5	35%	50%	-5.7 pts
South Alabama +9.5	65%	50%	+5.7 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		60%
Books (no-vig consensus)	58	no-vig	74%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on South Alabama: +9.5 at DraftKings, Caesars, Fanatics; no-vig spread Louisiana −9.5, Louisiana covers 50.0%; no-vig total 58, over 50.0%; Louisiana wins 73.9%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Louisiana −9.5 (−110) · O/U 58.5 (−105 / −115) · ML Louisiana −360, South Alabama +285
FanDuel	Louisiana −7.5 (−110) · O/U 57.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Louisiana −300, South Alabama +240
BetMGM	Louisiana −8.5 (−108) · O/U 57.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Louisiana −325, South Alabama +270
Caesars	Louisiana −9.5 (−110) · O/U 58 (−110 / −109) · ML Louisiana −345, South Alabama +275
Fanatics	Louisiana −9.5 (−110) · O/U 58 (−110 / −110) · ML Louisiana −350, South Alabama +275

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 5:00 PM ET

Open South Alabama +5.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 4:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: South Alabama +5.5 → not yet → not yet

20Boise State43

Colorado State (H)26

Sat 6:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Boise State	Colorado State (H)
ATO	−17	+17
DraftKings	−17.5−115	+17.5−105, best number
FanDuel	−17.5−108, best number	+17.5−112
BetMGM	−17.5−110	+17.5−108
Caesars	−17.5−110	+17.5−110
Fanatics	−17.5−110	+17.5−110

ATO−17.0Boise StateHome win 13%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+17.5Colorado StateDraftKings (−105)Over 68.5 DraftKings, FanDuel +3 (−110)Under 68.5 BetMGM (−108)

Gap0.5 ptstoward Colorado State

Our lean Not locked yetNo lean

What the model sees

Projected score Boise State 43 at Colorado State 26, on DraftKings' total of 68.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Boise State −17.0 against the best book number on our side, Boise State −17.5 (DraftKings), 0.5 points toward Colorado State. We give Colorado State 13% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 13%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Boise State to win	87%	87%	-0.0 pts
Colorado State to win	13%	13%	+0.0 pts
Colorado State +17.5	51%	50%	+0.5 pts
Boise State −17.5	49%	50%	-0.5 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		13%
Books (no-vig consensus)	68.5	no-vig	13%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Colorado State: +17.5 at DraftKings; no-vig spread Boise State −17.5, Boise State covers 50.2%; no-vig total 68.5, over 50.0%; Colorado State wins 13.0%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Boise State −17.5 (−115) · O/U 68.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Colorado State +650, Boise State −1000
FanDuel	Boise State −17.5 (−108) · O/U 68.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Colorado State +610, Boise State −900
BetMGM	Boise State −17.5 (−110) · O/U 68.5 (−110 / −108) · ML Colorado State +650, Boise State −900
Caesars	Boise State −17.5 (−110) · O/U 68.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Colorado State +650, Boise State −1000
Fanatics	Boise State −17.5 (−110) · O/U 68.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Colorado State +650, Boise State −950

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 6:00 PM ET

Open No lean locked Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 5:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Colorado State +18.5 → not yet → not yet

8Kentucky19

16Tennessee (H)32

Sat 6:15 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Kentucky	Tennessee (H)
ATO	+12.6	−12.6
DraftKings	+6−110	−6−110, best number
FanDuel	+6.5−110	−6.5−110
BetMGM	+6.5−105, best number	−6.5−112
Caesars	+6.5−110	−6.5−110
Fanatics	+6.5−105, best number	−6.5−115

ATO−12.6TennesseeHome win 80%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−6TennesseeDraftKings (−110)Over 50.5 Fanatics (−115)Under 51.5 DraftKings (−110)

Gap6.6 ptstoward Tennessee

Our lean Not locked yetTennessee −6

What the model sees

Projected score Kentucky 19 at Tennessee 32, on DraftKings' total of 51.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Tennessee −12.6 against the best book number on our side, Tennessee −6 (DraftKings), 6.6 points toward Tennessee. We give Tennessee 80% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 67%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Kentucky to win	20%	33%	-13.0 pts
Tennessee to win	80%	67%	+13.0 pts
Tennessee −6	67%	50%	+6.6 pts
Kentucky +6	33%	50%	-6.6 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		80%
Books (no-vig consensus)	51.5	no-vig	67%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Tennessee: −6 at DraftKings; no-vig spread Tennessee −6.5, Tennessee covers 50.5%; no-vig total 51.5, over 49.3%; Tennessee wins 66.8%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Tennessee −6 (−110) · O/U 51.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Tennessee −205, Kentucky +170
FanDuel	Tennessee −6.5 (−110) · O/U 51.5 (−105 / −115) · ML Tennessee −235, Kentucky +195
BetMGM	Tennessee −6.5 (−112) · O/U 50.5 (−118 / −102) · ML Tennessee −235, Kentucky +190
Caesars	Tennessee −6.5 (−110) · O/U 51.5 (−105 / −115) · ML Tennessee −230, Kentucky +188
Fanatics	Tennessee −6.5 (−115) · O/U 50.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Tennessee −245, Kentucky +200

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 6:15 PM ET

Open Tennessee −5.5 locked Fri 30 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 5:15 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Tennessee −5.5 → not yet → not yet

Sam Houston17

Jacksonville State (H)31

Sat 7:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Sam Houston	Jacksonville State (H)
ATO	+13.6	−13.6
DraftKings	+16.5−108	−16.5−112
FanDuel	+16.5−114	−16.5−106, best number
BetMGM	+16.5−108	−16.5−110
Caesars	+16.5−110	−16.5−110
Fanatics	+17−110, best number	−17−110

ATO−13.6Jacksonville StateHome win 82%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+17Sam HoustonFanatics (−110)Over 48.5 DraftKings, FanDuel +2 (−110)Under 48.5 Fanatics (−105)

Gap3.4 ptstoward Sam Houston

Our lean Not locked yetSam Houston +17

What the model sees

Projected score Sam Houston 17 at Jacksonville State 31, on DraftKings' total of 48.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Jacksonville State −13.6 against the best book number on our side, Jacksonville State −17 (Fanatics), 3.4 points toward Sam Houston. We give Jacksonville State 82% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 85%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Sam Houston to win	18%	15%	+3.7 pts
Jacksonville State to win	82%	85%	-3.7 pts
Jacksonville State −17	41%	50%	-3.4 pts
Sam Houston +17	59%	50%	+3.4 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		82%
Books (no-vig consensus)	48.5	no-vig	85%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Sam Houston: +17 at Fanatics; no-vig spread Jacksonville State −16.5, Jacksonville State covers 50.0%; no-vig total 48.5, over 50.3%; Jacksonville State wins 85.3%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Jacksonville State −16.5 (−112) · O/U 48.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Jacksonville State −800, Sam Houston +550
FanDuel	Jacksonville State −16.5 (−106) · O/U 48.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Jacksonville State −780, Sam Houston +550
BetMGM	Jacksonville State −16.5 (−110) · O/U 48.5 (−110 / −108) · ML Jacksonville State −750, Sam Houston +550
Caesars	Jacksonville State −16.5 (−110) · O/U 48.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Jacksonville State −800, Sam Houston +550
Fanatics	Jacksonville State −17 (−110) · O/U 48.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Jacksonville State −850, Sam Houston +575

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 7:00 PM ET

Open No lean locked Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 6:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Sam Houston +14.5 → not yet → not yet

Air Force20

Army (H)28

Sat 7:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Air Force	Army (H)
ATO	+7.8	−7.8
DraftKings	+3.5−110, best number	−3.5−110
FanDuel	+3.5−120	−3.5−102, best number
BetMGM	+3.5−110, best number	−3.5−108
Caesars	+3.5−118	−3.5−103
Fanatics	+3.5−110, best number	−3.5−110

ATO−7.8ArmyHome win 70%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−3.5ArmyFanDuel (−102)Over 47.5 FanDuel (−115)Under 48.5 DraftKings, BetMGM +1 (−110)

Gap4.3 ptstoward Army

Our lean Not locked yetArmy −3.5

What the model sees

Projected score Air Force 20 at Army 28, on DraftKings' total of 48.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Army −7.8 against the best book number on our side, Army −3.5 (FanDuel), 4.3 points toward Army. We give Army 70% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 61%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Air Force to win	30%	39%	-8.9 pts
Army to win	70%	61%	+8.9 pts
Army −3.5	61%	50%	+4.3 pts
Air Force +3.5	39%	50%	-4.3 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		70%
Books (no-vig consensus)	48.5	no-vig	61%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Army: −3.5 at FanDuel; no-vig spread Army −3.5, Army covers 49.2%; no-vig total 48.5, over 50.0%; Army wins 60.8%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Army −3.5 (−110) · O/U 48.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Army −185, Air Force +154
FanDuel	Army −3.5 (−102) · O/U 47.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Army −156, Air Force +130
BetMGM	Army −3.5 (−108) · O/U 48.5 (−108 / −110) · ML Army −165, Air Force +140
Caesars	Army −3.5 (−103) · O/U 48.5 (−112 / −112) · ML Army −182, Air Force +152
Fanatics	Army −3.5 (−110) · O/U 48.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Army −180, Air Force +150

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Open Army −5.5 locked Fri 30 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Army −5.5 → not yet → not yet

Colorado20

Arizona State (H)29

Sat 7:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Colorado	Arizona State (H)
ATO	+9	−9
DraftKings	+3.5−115	−3.5−105, best number
FanDuel	+3.5−110	−3.5−110
BetMGM	+3.5−108	−3.5−110
Caesars	+3.5−115	−3.5−105, best number
Fanatics	+3.5−105, best number	−3.5−115

ATO−9.0Arizona StateHome win 72%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−3.5Arizona StateDraftKings, Caesars (−105)Over 48.5 BetMGM (−110)Under 49 Caesars, Fanatics (−110)

Gap5.5 ptstoward Arizona State

Our lean Not locked yetArizona State −3.5

What the model sees

Projected score Colorado 20 at Arizona State 29, on DraftKings' total of 48.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Arizona State −9.0 against the best book number on our side, Arizona State −3.5 (DraftKings, Caesars), 5.5 points toward Arizona State. We give Arizona State 72% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 61%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Colorado to win	28%	39%	-11.3 pts
Arizona State to win	72%	61%	+11.3 pts
Arizona State −3.5	64%	50%	+5.5 pts
Colorado +3.5	36%	50%	-5.5 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		72%
Books (no-vig consensus)	48.5	no-vig	61%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Arizona State: −3.5 at DraftKings, Caesars; no-vig spread Arizona State −3.5, Arizona State covers 49.8%; no-vig total 48.5, over 50.5%; Arizona State wins 61.0%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Arizona State −3.5 (−105) · O/U 48.5 (−112 / −108) · ML Arizona State −175, Colorado +145
FanDuel	Arizona State −3.5 (−110) · O/U 48.5 (−114 / −106) · ML Arizona State −172, Colorado +142
BetMGM	Arizona State −3.5 (−110) · O/U 48.5 (−110 / −108) · ML Arizona State −175, Colorado +145
Caesars	Arizona State −3.5 (−105) · O/U 49 (−110 / −110) · ML Arizona State −176, Colorado +147
Fanatics	Arizona State −3.5 (−115) · O/U 49 (−110 / −110) · ML Arizona State −180, Colorado +150

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Open Arizona State −4 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Arizona State −4 → not yet → not yet

2Georgia29

12Ole Miss (H)28

Sat 7:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Georgia	Ole Miss (H)
ATO	−0.4	+0.4
DraftKings	−3.5−108	+3.5−112
FanDuel	−3.5−112	+3.5−108, best number
BetMGM	−3.5−108	+3.5−112
Caesars	−3.5−106	+3.5−114
Fanatics	−3.5−105, best number	+3.5−115

ATO−0.4GeorgiaHome win 49%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+3.5Ole MissFanDuel (−108)Over 56.5 DraftKings, BetMGM +1 (−110)Under 56.5 FanDuel (−106)

Gap3.1 ptstoward Ole Miss

Our lean Not locked yetOle Miss +3.5

What the model sees

Projected score Georgia 29 at Ole Miss 28, on DraftKings' total of 56.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Georgia −0.4 against the best book number on our side, Georgia −3.5 (FanDuel), 3.1 points toward Ole Miss. We give Ole Miss 49% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 39%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Georgia to win	51%	61%	-9.4 pts
Ole Miss to win	49%	39%	+9.4 pts
Ole Miss +3.5	58%	50%	+3.1 pts
Georgia −3.5	42%	50%	-3.1 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		49%
Books (no-vig consensus)	56.5	no-vig	39%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Ole Miss: +3.5 at FanDuel; no-vig spread Georgia −3.5, Georgia covers 49.5%; no-vig total 56.5, over 50.2%; Ole Miss wins 39.5%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Georgia −3.5 (−108) · O/U 56.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Ole Miss +142, Georgia −170
FanDuel	Georgia −3.5 (−112) · O/U 56.5 (−114 / −106) · ML Ole Miss +146, Georgia −176
BetMGM	Georgia −3.5 (−108) · O/U 56.5 (−110 / −108) · ML Ole Miss +140, Georgia −175
Caesars	Georgia −3.5 (−106) · O/U 56.5 (−112 / −112) · ML Ole Miss +144, Georgia −170
Fanatics	Georgia −3.5 (−105) · O/U 56.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Ole Miss +140, Georgia −170

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Open Ole Miss +3 locked Fri 30 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Ole Miss +3 → not yet → not yet

21Iowa25

Northwestern (H)20

Sat 7:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Iowa	Northwestern (H)
ATO	−5.4	+5.4
DraftKings	+2.5−115, best number	−2.5−105
FanDuel	+1.5−112	−1.5−108, best number
BetMGM	+1.5−108	−1.5−110
Fanatics	+1.5−110	−1.5−110

ATO−5.4IowaHome win 36%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+2.5IowaDraftKings (−115)Over 44.5 BetMGM (−108)Under 44.5 DraftKings, FanDuel +2 (−110)

Gap7.9 ptstoward Iowa

Our lean Not locked yetIowa +2.5

What the model sees

Projected score Iowa 25 at Northwestern 20, on DraftKings' total of 44.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Iowa −5.4 against the best book number on our side, Northwestern −2.5 (DraftKings), 7.9 points toward Iowa. We give Northwestern 36% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 52%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Iowa to win	64%	48%	+16.4 pts
Northwestern to win	36%	52%	-16.4 pts
Northwestern −2.5	30%	50%	-7.9 pts
Iowa +2.5	70%	50%	+7.9 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		36%
Books (no-vig consensus)	44.5	no-vig	52%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Iowa: +2.5 at DraftKings; no-vig spread Northwestern −1.5, Northwestern covers 49.9%; no-vig total 44.5, over 50.0%; Northwestern wins 52.3%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Northwestern −2.5 (−105) · O/U 44.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Northwestern −125, Iowa +105
FanDuel	Northwestern −1.5 (−108) · O/U 44.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Northwestern −118, Iowa −102
BetMGM	Northwestern −1.5 (−110) · O/U 44.5 (−108 / −110) · ML Northwestern −120, Iowa +100
Fanatics	Northwestern −1.5 (−110) · O/U 44.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Northwestern −120, Iowa +100

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Open Iowa +2.5 locked Fri 30 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Iowa +2.5 → not yet → not yet

Louisville34

Georgia Tech (H)27

Sat 7:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Louisville	Georgia Tech (H)
ATO	−7.3	+7.3
DraftKings	−14.5−110	+14.5−110, best number
FanDuel	−14.5−110	+14.5−110, best number
BetMGM	−14.5−108, best number	+14.5−110, best number
Fanatics	−14.5−110	+14.5−110, best number

ATO−7.3LouisvilleHome win 31%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+14.5Georgia TechDraftKings, FanDuel +2 (−110)Over 60.5 FanDuel (−108)Under 60.5 BetMGM (−108)

Gap7.2 ptstoward Georgia Tech

Our lean Not locked yetGeorgia Tech +14.5

What the model sees

Projected score Louisville 34 at Georgia Tech 27, on DraftKings' total of 60.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Louisville −7.3 against the best book number on our side, Louisville −14.5 (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics), 7.2 points toward Georgia Tech. We give Georgia Tech 31% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 17%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Louisville to win	69%	83%	-14.8 pts
Georgia Tech to win	31%	17%	+14.8 pts
Georgia Tech +14.5	68%	50%	+7.2 pts
Louisville −14.5	32%	50%	-7.2 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		31%
Books (no-vig consensus)	60.5	no-vig	17%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Georgia Tech: +14.5 at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics; no-vig spread Louisville −14.5, Louisville covers 50.0%; no-vig total 60.5, over 50.0%; Georgia Tech wins 16.7%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Louisville −14.5 (−110) · O/U 60.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Georgia Tech +490, Louisville −675
FanDuel	Louisville −14.5 (−110) · O/U 60.5 (−108 / −112) · ML Georgia Tech +470, Louisville −650
BetMGM	Louisville −14.5 (−108) · O/U 60.5 (−110 / −108) · ML Georgia Tech +475, Louisville −625
Fanatics	Louisville −14.5 (−110) · O/U 60.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Georgia Tech +475, Louisville −650

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Open Georgia Tech +13.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Georgia Tech +13.5 → not yet → not yet

1Miami24

4Notre Dame (H)33

Sat 7:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Miami	Notre Dame (H)
ATO	+9	−9
DraftKings	+4.5−105, best number	−4.5−115
FanDuel	+4.5−110	−4.5−110
BetMGM	+4.5−110	−4.5−108, best number
Caesars	+4.5−110	−4.5−109
Fanatics	+4.5−110	−4.5−110

ATO−9.0Notre DameHome win 72%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−4.5Notre DameBetMGM (−108)Over 57.5 Caesars (−109)Under 58 Fanatics (−110)

Gap4.5 ptstoward Notre Dame

Our lean Not locked yetNotre Dame −4.5

What the model sees

Projected score Miami 24 at Notre Dame 33, on DraftKings' total of 57.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Notre Dame −9.0 against the best book number on our side, Notre Dame −4.5 (BetMGM), 4.5 points toward Notre Dame. We give Notre Dame 72% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 65%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Miami to win	28%	35%	-7.5 pts
Notre Dame to win	72%	65%	+7.5 pts
Notre Dame −4.5	62%	50%	+4.5 pts
Miami +4.5	38%	50%	-4.5 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		72%
Books (no-vig consensus)	57.5	no-vig	65%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Notre Dame: −4.5 at BetMGM; no-vig spread Notre Dame −4.5, Notre Dame covers 50.1%; no-vig total 57.5, over 50.7%; Notre Dame wins 64.9%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Notre Dame −4.5 (−115) · O/U 57.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Notre Dame −218, Miami +180
FanDuel	Notre Dame −4.5 (−110) · O/U 57.5 (−114 / −106) · ML Notre Dame −194, Miami +162
BetMGM	Notre Dame −4.5 (−108) · O/U 57.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Notre Dame −210, Miami +170
Caesars	Notre Dame −4.5 (−109) · O/U 57.5 (−109 / −110) · ML Notre Dame −213, Miami +177
Fanatics	Notre Dame −4.5 (−110) · O/U 58 (−110 / −110) · ML Notre Dame −215, Miami +175

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Open Notre Dame −3.5 locked Fri 30 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Notre Dame −3.5 → not yet → not yet

Michigan State10

Michigan (H)29

Sat 7:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Michigan State	Michigan (H)
ATO	+18.6	−18.6
DraftKings	+12.5−105	−12.5−115, best number
FanDuel	+13.5−114, best number	−13.5−106
BetMGM	+13−110	−13−108
Caesars	+13−112	−13−108
Fanatics	+13−110	−13−110

ATO−18.6MichiganHome win 89%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−12.5MichiganDraftKings (−115)Over 39.5 DraftKings (−108)Under 40.5 FanDuel (−114)

Gap6.1 ptstoward Michigan

Our lean Not locked yetMichigan −12.5

What the model sees

Projected score Michigan State 10 at Michigan 29, on DraftKings' total of 39.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Michigan −18.6 against the best book number on our side, Michigan −12.5 (DraftKings), 6.1 points toward Michigan. We give Michigan 89% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 82%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Michigan State to win	11%	18%	-7.3 pts
Michigan to win	89%	82%	+7.3 pts
Michigan −12.5	66%	50%	+6.1 pts
Michigan State +12.5	34%	50%	-6.1 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		89%
Books (no-vig consensus)	39.5	no-vig	82%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Michigan: −12.5 at DraftKings; no-vig spread Michigan −13, Michigan covers 49.8%; no-vig total 39.5, over 50.0%; Michigan wins 81.8%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Michigan −12.5 (−115) · O/U 39.5 (−108 / −112) · ML Michigan −550, Michigan State +410
FanDuel	Michigan −13.5 (−106) · O/U 40.5 (−106 / −114) · ML Michigan −600, Michigan State +450
BetMGM	Michigan −13 (−108) · O/U 39.5 (−110 / −108) · ML Michigan −550, Michigan State +425
Caesars	Michigan −13 (−108) · O/U 39.5 (−110 / −109) · ML Michigan −590, Michigan State +425
Fanatics	Michigan −13 (−110) · O/U 39.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Michigan −575, Michigan State +425

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Open Michigan −14 locked Fri 30 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Michigan −14 → not yet → not yet

Oklahoma22

25Florida (H)23

Sat 7:45 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Oklahoma	Florida (H)
ATO	+0.6	−0.6
DraftKings	+7−118, best number	−7−102
FanDuel	+6.5−110	−6.5−110, best number
BetMGM	+6.5−102	−6.5−115
Caesars	+6.5−106	−6.5−114
Fanatics	+6.5−105	−6.5−115

ATO−0.6FloridaHome win 52%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+7OklahomaDraftKings (−118)Over 45.5 DraftKings, BetMGM +1 (−110)Under 46.5 FanDuel (−110)

Gap6.4 ptstoward Oklahoma

Our lean Not locked yetOklahoma +7

What the model sees

Projected score Oklahoma 22 at Florida 23, on DraftKings' total of 45.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Florida −0.6 against the best book number on our side, Florida −7 (DraftKings), 6.4 points toward Oklahoma. We give Florida 52% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 69%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Oklahoma to win	48%	31%	+16.8 pts
Florida to win	52%	69%	-16.8 pts
Florida −7	34%	50%	-6.4 pts
Oklahoma +7	66%	50%	+6.4 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		52%
Books (no-vig consensus)	45.5	no-vig	69%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Oklahoma: +7 at DraftKings; no-vig spread Florida −6.5, Florida covers 50.8%; no-vig total 45.5, over 50.0%; Florida wins 68.5%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Florida −7 (−102) · O/U 45.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Florida −258, Oklahoma +210
FanDuel	Florida −6.5 (−110) · O/U 46.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Florida −235, Oklahoma +190
BetMGM	Florida −6.5 (−115) · O/U 45.5 (−110 / −108) · ML Florida −250, Oklahoma +200
Caesars	Florida −6.5 (−114) · O/U 45.5 (−112 / −112) · ML Florida −260, Oklahoma +210
Fanatics	Florida −6.5 (−115) · O/U 45.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Florida −260, Oklahoma +210

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 7:45 PM ET

Open Oklahoma +4 locked Fri 30 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 6:45 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Oklahoma +4 → not yet → not yet

Liberty28

New Mexico State (H)19

Sat 8:00 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Liberty	New Mexico State (H)
ATO	−8.9	+8.9
DraftKings	−17.5−102	+17.5−118, best number
FanDuel	−16.5−110, best number	+16.5−110
BetMGM	−17−108	+17−110
Caesars	−17−109	+17−110
Fanatics	−17−110	+17−110

ATO−8.9LibertyHome win 28%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+17.5New Mexico StateDraftKings (−118)Over 46.5 FanDuel (−110)Under 47 Caesars, Fanatics (−110)

Gap8.6 ptstoward New Mexico State

Our lean Not locked yetNew Mexico State +17.5

What the model sees

Projected score Liberty 28 at New Mexico State 19, on DraftKings' total of 47.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Liberty −8.9 against the best book number on our side, Liberty −17.5 (DraftKings), 8.6 points toward New Mexico State. We give New Mexico State 28% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 14%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Liberty to win	72%	86%	-14.1 pts
New Mexico State to win	28%	14%	+14.1 pts
New Mexico State +17.5	71%	50%	+8.6 pts
Liberty −17.5	29%	50%	-8.6 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		28%
Books (no-vig consensus)	46.5	no-vig	14%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on New Mexico State: +17.5 at DraftKings; no-vig spread Liberty −17, Liberty covers 49.9%; no-vig total 46.5, over 50.8%; New Mexico State wins 13.7%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Liberty −17.5 (−102) · O/U 46.5 (−118 / −102) · ML New Mexico State +600, Liberty −900
FanDuel	Liberty −16.5 (−110) · O/U 46.5 (−110 / −110) · ML New Mexico State +610, Liberty −900
BetMGM	Liberty −17 (−108) · O/U 46.5 (−112 / −105) · ML New Mexico State +625, Liberty −900
Caesars	Liberty −17 (−109) · O/U 47 (−110 / −110) · ML New Mexico State +575, Liberty −950
Fanatics	Liberty −17 (−110) · O/U 47 (−110 / −110) · ML New Mexico State +600, Liberty −900

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 8:00 PM ET

Open New Mexico State +13.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 7:00 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: New Mexico State +13.5 → not yet → not yet

Fresno State22

Utah State (H)20

Sat 9:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Fresno State	Utah State (H)
ATO	−2.2	+2.2
DraftKings	−2.5−110	+2.5−110, best number
FanDuel	−1.5−115, best number	+1.5−105
BetMGM	−2−112	+2−108
Caesars	−2−114	+2−106
Fanatics	−2.5−110	+2.5−110, best number

ATO−2.2Fresno StateHome win 44%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+2.5Utah StateDraftKings, Fanatics (−110)Over 41.5 BetMGM, Caesars +1 (−110)Under 41.5 DraftKings (−105)

Gap0.3 ptstoward Utah State

Our lean Not locked yetNo lean

What the model sees

Projected score Fresno State 22 at Utah State 20, on DraftKings' total of 41.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Fresno State −2.2 against the best book number on our side, Fresno State −2.5 (DraftKings, Fanatics), 0.3 points toward Utah State. We give Utah State 44% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 46%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Fresno State to win	56%	54%	+1.6 pts
Utah State to win	44%	46%	-1.6 pts
Utah State +2.5	51%	50%	+0.3 pts
Fresno State −2.5	49%	50%	-0.3 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		44%
Books (no-vig consensus)	41.5	no-vig	46%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Utah State: +2.5 at DraftKings, Fanatics; no-vig spread Fresno State −2, Fresno State covers 50.6%; no-vig total 41.5, over 50.3%; Utah State wins 45.7%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Fresno State −2.5 (−110) · O/U 41.5 (−115 / −105) · ML Utah State +114, Fresno State −135
FanDuel	Fresno State −1.5 (−115) · O/U 41.5 (−112 / −108) · ML Utah State +104, Fresno State −122
BetMGM	Fresno State −2 (−112) · O/U 41.5 (−110 / −108) · ML Utah State +110, Fresno State −135
Caesars	Fresno State −2 (−114) · O/U 41.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Utah State +111, Fresno State −130
Fanatics	Fresno State −2.5 (−110) · O/U 41.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Utah State +110, Fresno State −130

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 9:30 PM ET

Open No lean locked Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Utah State +2.5 → not yet → not yet

Hawai'i28

UTEP (H)21

Sat 9:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Hawai'i	UTEP (H)
ATO	−7	+7
DraftKings	−9.5−110, best number	+9.5−110
FanDuel	−9.5−110, best number	+9.5−110
BetMGM	−9.5−110, best number	+9.5−108, best number
Caesars	−9.5−110, best number	+9.5−110
Fanatics	−9.5−110, best number	+9.5−110

ATO−7.0Hawai'iHome win 32%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number+9.5UTEPBetMGM (−108)Over 48.5 DraftKings, FanDuel +3 (−110)Under 48.5 BetMGM (−108)

Gap2.5 ptstoward UTEP

Our lean Not locked yetUTEP +9.5

What the model sees

Projected score Hawai'i 28 at UTEP 21, on DraftKings' total of 48.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Hawai'i −7.0 against the best book number on our side, Hawai'i −9.5 (BetMGM), 2.5 points toward UTEP. We give UTEP 32% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 25%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Hawai'i to win	68%	75%	-7.1 pts
UTEP to win	32%	25%	+7.1 pts
UTEP +9.5	57%	50%	+2.5 pts
Hawai'i −9.5	43%	50%	-2.5 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		32%
Books (no-vig consensus)	48.5	no-vig	25%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on UTEP: +9.5 at BetMGM; no-vig spread Hawai'i −9.5, Hawai'i covers 50.0%; no-vig total 48.5, over 50.0%; UTEP wins 25.1%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Hawai'i −9.5 (−110) · O/U 48.5 (−110 / −110) · ML UTEP +285, Hawai'i −360
FanDuel	Hawai'i −9.5 (−110) · O/U 48.5 (−110 / −110) · ML UTEP +275, Hawai'i −345
BetMGM	Hawai'i −9.5 (−110) · O/U 48.5 (−110 / −108) · ML UTEP +280, Hawai'i −350
Caesars	Hawai'i −9.5 (−110) · O/U 48.5 (−110 / −110) · ML UTEP +280, Hawai'i −360
Fanatics	Hawai'i −9.5 (−110) · O/U 48.5 (−110 / −110) · ML UTEP +290, Hawai'i −375

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 9:30 PM ET

Open UTEP +11.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: UTEP +11.5 → not yet → not yet

West Virginia23

13Texas Tech (H)41

Sat 9:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	West Virginia	Texas Tech (H)
ATO	+18	−18
DraftKings	+17.5−115	−17.5−105
FanDuel	+17.5−122	−17.5+100
BetMGM	+17−110	−17−108, best number
Caesars	+17−108	−17−112
Fanatics	+17.5−110, best number	−17.5−110

ATO−18.0Texas TechHome win 88%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−17Texas TechBetMGM (−108)Over 63.5 DraftKings, BetMGM (−108)Under 63.5 Caesars (−107)

Gap1.0 ptstoward Texas Tech

Our lean Not locked yetNo lean

What the model sees

Projected score West Virginia 23 at Texas Tech 41, on DraftKings' total of 63.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Texas Tech −18.0 against the best book number on our side, Texas Tech −17 (BetMGM), 1.0 points toward Texas Tech. We give Texas Tech 88% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 86%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
West Virginia to win	12%	14%	-2.3 pts
Texas Tech to win	88%	86%	+2.3 pts
Texas Tech −17	53%	50%	+1.0 pts
West Virginia +17	47%	50%	-1.0 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		88%
Books (no-vig consensus)	63.5	no-vig	86%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Texas Tech: −17 at BetMGM; no-vig spread Texas Tech −17.5, Texas Tech covers 48.9%; no-vig total 63.5, over 50.0%; Texas Tech wins 86.1%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Texas Tech −17.5 (−105) · O/U 63.5 (−108 / −112) · ML Texas Tech −900, West Virginia +600
FanDuel	Texas Tech −17.5 (+100) · O/U 63.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Texas Tech −820, West Virginia +570
BetMGM	Texas Tech −17 (−108) · O/U 63.5 (−108 / −110) · ML Texas Tech −800, West Virginia +600
Caesars	Texas Tech −17 (−112) · O/U 63.5 (−113 / −107) · ML Texas Tech −950, West Virginia +600
Fanatics	Texas Tech −17.5 (−110) · O/U 63.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Texas Tech −850, West Virginia +575

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 9:30 PM ET

Open No lean locked Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 AM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Texas Tech −17.5 → not yet → not yet

Texas State31

Oregon State (H)37

Sat 10:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Texas State	Oregon State (H)
ATO	+6	−6
DraftKings	+7−112	−7−108
FanDuel	+7.5−138, best number	−7.5+112
BetMGM	+7−115	−7−105, best number
Caesars	+7−112	−7−109
Fanatics	+7−115	−7−105, best number

ATO−6.0Oregon StateHome win 65%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−7Oregon StateBetMGM, Fanatics (−105)Over 69.5 BetMGM (−105)Under 69.5 FanDuel, Fanatics (−110)

Gap1.0 ptstoward Texas State

Our lean Not locked yetNo lean

What the model sees

Projected score Texas State 31 at Oregon State 37, on DraftKings' total of 68.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is Oregon State −6.0 against the best book number on our side, Oregon State −7 (BetMGM, Fanatics), 1.0 points toward Texas State. We give Oregon State 65% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 69%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Texas State to win	35%	31%	+3.5 pts
Oregon State to win	65%	69%	-3.5 pts
Oregon State −7	47%	50%	-1.0 pts
Texas State +7	53%	50%	+1.0 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		65%
Books (no-vig consensus)	69.5	no-vig	69%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on Oregon State: −7 at BetMGM, Fanatics; no-vig spread Oregon State −7, Oregon State covers 49.3%; no-vig total 69.5, over 49.6%; Oregon State wins 69.0%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	Oregon State −7 (−108) · O/U 69.5 (−108 / −112) · ML Oregon State −258, Texas State +210
FanDuel	Oregon State −7.5 (+112) · O/U 69.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Oregon State −245, Texas State +202
BetMGM	Oregon State −7 (−105) · O/U 69.5 (−105 / −112) · ML Oregon State −250, Texas State +210
Caesars	Oregon State −7 (−109) · O/U 69.5 (−106 / −114) · ML Oregon State −265, Texas State +215
Fanatics	Oregon State −7 (−105) · O/U 69.5 (−110 / −110) · ML Oregon State −260, Texas State +210

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 10:30 PM ET

Open Texas State +8.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 9:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: Oregon State −8.5 → not yet → not yet

Wyoming17

UNLV (H)31

Sat 10:30 PM ET

Spread for each team by source
Spread	Wyoming	UNLV (H)
ATO	+13.7	−13.7
DraftKings	+7−108	−7−112
FanDuel	+7.5−122, best number	−7.5+100
BetMGM	+7−105	−7−115
Caesars	+7−109	−7−110, best number
Fanatics	+7−110	−7−110, best number

ATO−13.7UNLVHome win 82%

Novign/aNo line yet

Books, best number−7UNLVCaesars, Fanatics (−110)Over 47.5 FanDuel, BetMGM (−112)Under 48 Caesars, Fanatics (−110)

Gap6.7 ptstoward UNLV

Our lean Not locked yetUNLV −7

What the model sees

Projected score Wyoming 17 at UNLV 31, on DraftKings' total of 47.5 (via ESPN). Our spread is UNLV −13.7 against the best book number on our side, UNLV −7 (Caesars, Fanatics), 6.7 points toward UNLV. We give UNLV 82% to win; the market's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 70%.

Every market, side by side

Market	Our chance	Market implies	Gap
Wyoming to win	18%	30%	-11.3 pts
UNLV to win	82%	70%	+11.3 pts
UNLV −7	67%	50%	+6.7 pts
Wyoming +7	33%	50%	-6.7 pts

Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the books, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and our margin model has not beaten closing lines this season. We use the market's total rather than our own.

Totals and moneylines

Source	Total	ML away / home	Home win
ATO	market's		82%
Books (no-vig consensus)	47.5	no-vig	70%

Home win is the home team’s chance with the margin removed. Novig moneylines are its prices converted to American odds. Each book’s own total and moneyline are under Books.

Books

best number on UNLV: −7 at Caesars, Fanatics; no-vig spread UNLV −7, UNLV covers 50.4%; no-vig total 47.5, over 50.6%; UNLV wins 70.4%. “No-vig” means each book’s margin is removed first.

Book	As quoted
DraftKings	UNLV −7 (−112) · O/U 47.5 (−115 / −105) · ML UNLV −278, Wyoming +225
FanDuel	UNLV −7.5 (+100) · O/U 47.5 (−112 / −110) · ML UNLV −275, Wyoming +225
BetMGM	UNLV −7 (−115) · O/U 47.5 (−112 / −108) · ML UNLV −275, Wyoming +225
Caesars	UNLV −7 (−110) · O/U 48 (−110 / −110) · ML UNLV −275, Wyoming +220
Fanatics	UNLV −7 (−110) · O/U 48 (−110 / −110) · ML UNLV −280, Wyoming +225

Our lean and its locks

As of this build, not locked. Day-before lock near Fri 6 Nov, 10:30 PM ET

Open UNLV −8.5 locked Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 PM ET
Hour before not taken yet near Sat 7 Nov, 9:30 PM ET

DraftKings line at each lock: UNLV −8.5 → not yet → not yet

College football lines board

Where our line differs most from the books

The full slate

Tuesday, November 3

What the model sees

Every market, side by side

Totals and moneylines

What Novig charges

Books

Our lean and its locks

What the model sees

Every market, side by side

Totals and moneylines

What Novig charges

Books

Our lean and its locks

Wednesday, November 4

What the model sees

Every market, side by side

Totals and moneylines

What Novig charges

Books

Our lean and its locks

What the model sees

Every market, side by side

Totals and moneylines

What Novig charges

Books

Our lean and its locks

What the model sees

Every market, side by side

Totals and moneylines

What Novig charges

Books

Our lean and its locks

Thursday, November 5

What the model sees

Every market, side by side

Totals and moneylines

What Novig charges

Books

Our lean and its locks

What the model sees

Every market, side by side

Totals and moneylines

What Novig charges

Books

Our lean and its locks

Friday, November 6

What the model sees

Every market, side by side

Totals and moneylines

Books

Our lean and its locks

What the model sees

Every market, side by side

Totals and moneylines

Books

Our lean and its locks

What the model sees

Every market, side by side

Totals and moneylines

Books

Our lean and its locks

What the model sees

Every market, side by side

Totals and moneylines

Books

Our lean and its locks

What the model sees

Every market, side by side

Totals and moneylines

Books

Our lean and its locks

Saturday, November 7

What the model sees

Every market, side by side

Totals and moneylines

Books

Our lean and its locks