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Michael Hawkins Jr., QB West Virginia

The highest-scoring quarterback in our data after seven weeks, with 749 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in every game. I have no shares of him, and my own board had him 168th.

No shares across 16 drafts · ADP 103.0 · my board had him 168th · stats through Oct. 17 (Week 7)

Michael Hawkins Jr. has 254.7 half-PPR points in seven games, 36.4 a game. Among the 24 quarterbacks in Underdog's player pool who have played at least seven games in our box-score data, that is first. The next three are Gio Lopez at 29.5, Ashton Daniels at 29.4 and Conner Weigman at 29.4.

I have no shares of him. He is on none of my sixteen teams, and my own board had him 168th, 65 spots below where the room took him. This is the piece where I write down what I missed.

Where he went in drafts

His ADP was 103.0, the 33rd quarterback off the board, in Underdog's final preseason rankings export. That is a round-nine price for a quarterback who had not yet won a starting job.

ESPN's Max Olson described him (Sept. 24) as a player who was benched at Oklahoma after struggling, entered the portal and found "the perfect fit for his talents" at West Virginia. My board did not see it. It marked him down for a thin track record and a quarterback competition, and I never revisited the number.

The seven games

Week 1, Coastal Carolina, a 31-24 win on Sept. 5: 11 of 14 for 132 yards and a touchdown, plus 20 carries for 103 yards and a touchdown. 23.6 points, his lowest game of the year.

Week 2, UT Martin, a 52-7 win on Sept. 12: 5 of 7 for 155 yards and two touchdowns, 6 carries for 96 yards and two more scores. 35.8 points on 13 touches.

Week 3, Virginia, a 38-27 win on Sept. 19: 10 of 17 for 190 yards and two touchdowns, 18 carries for 123 yards and three scores. 45.9 points.

Week 4, Oklahoma State, a 41-24 loss on Sept. 26: 10 of 22 for 132 yards and an interception, 28 carries for 103 yards and three touchdowns. 32.6 points in a game West Virginia lost.

Week 5, Iowa State, a 45-42 loss on Oct. 3: 11 of 23 for 227 yards and two touchdowns, 20 carries for 149 yards and two more. 42.0 points.

Week 6, Arizona, a 52-31 loss on Oct. 10: 11 of 28 for 219 yards, 25 carries for 98 yards and a touchdown. 24.6 points.

Week 7, Cincinnati, a 45-42 win on Oct. 17: 25 of 33 for 464 yards and three touchdowns, 26 carries for 77 yards and two more. 50.3 points. West Virginia never led until Jack Cassidy's 35-yard field goal as time expired, per the AP recap (Oct. 17). The winning drive started at West Virginia's own 1-yard line with 2:05 left, and Hawkins hit Prince Strachan for 41 yards on third down and again for 40 two plays later. Coach Rich Rodriguez asked afterward, "How about Mike Hawkins?"

The number that matters: 749 rushing yards

He has 143 carries for 749 yards and 14 touchdowns, 107 yards a game. ESPN's Olson wrote that his 322 rushing yards through three games led all FBS quarterbacks, and our box scores agree: 103, 96 and 123. In our data he leads every quarterback who has thrown at least 60 passes in rushing yards. The next one is Rice's Jacurri Brown at 668.

He has run for a touchdown in all seven games. He has 100 or more rushing yards in four of them.

How I count the carry share: his rushes divided by every rushing attempt West Virginia logged in the ESPN box scores, sacks included. That is 143 of 391, 36.6%. Cam Cook leads the team with 168.

The passing has caught up, too. He has completed 57.6% of his throws at 10.5 yards an attempt, with one interception, and in Week 7 he threw for 464.

The part that should slow you down

Fourteen rushing touchdowns on 143 carries is a touchdown on 9.8% of his runs. That rate is hard to hold. Our own Week 7 recap listed him second on its overshoot list, 18.8 points above what his workload alone was worth.

The other flag is the game script. West Virginia has allowed 41, 45, 52 and 42 points in four games. A quarterback who has to keep scoring will keep running and throwing, and that has helped his volume. If the defense improves, some of the volume goes with it.

West Virginia is 4-3 with three losses in a row before Week 7.

Playoff weeks

Two home games and a trip to Utah. Week 12 is the one to watch: Houston visits Morgantown, and Weigman (his spotlight) is the quarterback across from him.

Verdict: my board missed the floor

These are Underdog best ball teams. Nothing gets traded or dropped, so the verdict is about what I do in my next drafts at this price.

A quarterback who runs for 107 yards a game has a floor my board did not credit, and 23.6 points was his worst of seven. I spent four second-round picks on Byrum Brown (his spotlight) and none on the quarterback who is first in our data.

In my next drafts I would take the rushing profile seriously and be willing to pay for it earlier. I would not assume the touchdown rate holds.

What would change my mind

If the carries fall under 15 a game for a few weeks, the floor goes with them.

If the interceptions arrive, 10 touchdown passes to one interception is a number that tends to come back toward the middle, and that would show in the points.

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Exposure figures from my own Underdog draft exports. ADP from Underdog best ball rankings. Statistics and quotes from published reporting. Nothing here is betting advice, and I am telling you what I did, not what you should do.