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Chris Marshall, WR Arkansas

He has led Arkansas in catches in both games and has not scored yet. The volume is the part that sticks. The touchdowns are the part that is late.

31% exposure across 16 drafts · ADP 232.1 · my board had him 53rd · stats through Sept. 13

2026 So Far · 2 games

REC

12

6.0 per game

YDS

142

11.8 per catch

TD

0

HALF-PPR

10.1

per game, WR63

What I Paid · Underdog

ADP

232.1

WR77, round 20

MY AVG PICK

230.6

right on ADP

EXPOSURE

5 of 16

all in The Tailgate

MY BOARD

53rd

set Sept. 3

Chris Marshall has not popped yet. He has 20.2 half-PPR points in two games, 10.1 a game, which ranks 63rd among the 193 receivers in Underdog's player pool who have played two games in our box-score data.

That is fine for a last-round pick. It is not why I drafted him. The reason I drafted him is the role, and the role is already there.

The number that matters: 26% of Arkansas' catches

Marshall caught 7 of Arkansas' 24 passes against North Alabama, a 31-14 win, and 5 of 22 in a 43-10 loss at Utah (ESPN box score, Sept. 12, 2026). That is 12 of 46 team receptions, 26%, and 142 of 511 receiving yards, 28%. He led the team in catches both weeks.

How I count it: his catches divided by every catch Arkansas made in the ESPN box score. Box scores do not carry targets, so catch share stands in for target share. It flatters efficient receivers and undersells ones who see a lot of incompletions, and I cannot tell which he is from this data.

The school says the same thing in plainer words. Arkansas' own Utah game notes (Sept. 2026) call the Boise State transfer the team's expected primary pass catcher and note that his seven Week 1 catches were the most by any SEC player that week.

Why it has not turned into points yet

Two things, and only one of them worries me.

No touchdowns. Twelve catches and zero scores is the part most likely to change on its own. A receiver drawing a quarter of his team's catches does not stay out of the end zone for long.

The catches are shorter. At Boise State last season he caught 30 passes for 574 yards, 19.1 a catch (ESPN). This year it is 11.8. That is the one I am watching. A possession receiver at 6 catches for 70 yards is a bench piece in best ball. A deep threat with the same volume is a spike-week player.

What I paid, and why my board liked him

His ADP is 232.1, the last round of a 20-round draft. My preseason board had him 53rd, the biggest gap in his favour of anyone in this series. The board liked a new WR1 with big-play production from 2025 priced as if he were a flier.

I took him on five of sixteen teams, right at ADP. At that price I am not paying for a floor. I am paying for the chance he is Arkansas' leading receiver all year, which, two weeks in, he is.

Playoff weeks

Best Ball Playoffs · Arkansas (bye Week 8)

WEEK 11

vs South Carolina

WEEK 12

at Texas

WEEK 13

vs LSU

None of those is soft. His playoff value will come from volume, not matchups, so the share number is the one to track between now and November.

Verdict: keep drafting him, and take more at this price

These are Underdog best ball teams. Nothing gets traded or dropped, so the verdict is about what I do in my next drafts at this price.

"Better results are coming" is a fair call, as long as it rests on the share rather than a feeling. A round-20 pick who leads his team in catches is the right kind of bet. I would take him again at 232 every time.

What would change my mind

If his share of Arkansas' catches drops under 20% over the next two games, against Georgia and Tulsa, the WR1 role was a two-week thing.

If he stays near a quarter of the catches but under 12 yards a catch into October, he is a possession receiver, and that caps what he can do for a best ball team.

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Exposure figures from my own Underdog draft exports. ADP from Underdog best ball rankings. Statistics and quotes from published reporting. Nothing here is betting advice, and I am telling you what I did, not what you should do.