CFB Best Ball · Favorites
I drafted him as the back who would start while Ahmad Hardy recovered. Hardy has missed all four games, Roberts has two-thirds of the running back carries, and Florida's run defense comes to Columbia on Saturday.
2026 So Far · 4 games
RUSH
89-395
4.4 per carry
TD
3
one in each of the first three
CARRY SHARE
66%
of MIZZ RB carries
HALF-PPR
15.7
per game, RB22
What I Paid · Underdog
ADP
67.0
RB27
MY AVG PICK
69.3
right on ADP
EXPOSURE
3 of 16
all in The Tailgate
MY BOARD
55th
set Sept. 3
Jamal Roberts has 62.7 half-PPR points in four games, 15.7 a game. That ranks 22nd among the 110 running backs in Underdog's player pool who have played four games in our box-score data. The market drafted him as the 27th back.
That is roughly what I paid for. This piece is about whether the bet behind the price, a full workload while Ahmad Hardy is out, is still the right one.
Hardy led the FBS in rushing last season with 1,649 yards and 16 touchdowns. In May he was shot in the leg as a bystander after a concert in Mississippi. In July, ESPN reported (Andrea Adelson, July 20, 2026) that the bone had healed but his return date was unclear, with coach Eli Drinkwitz putting the protocol at five to eight weeks and saying: "We still don't know what his recovery will be; is he the same Ahmad Hardy that was last year?"
He has not played yet. The SEC's availability report lists him out for Florida, and the AP preview of the game (Dave Skretta, Oct. 2, 2026) describes Roberts as Missouri's featured back with Hardy unavailable.
Roberts was the backup last season and ran 124 times for 753 yards and six touchdowns, per our box scores. That is 6.1 a carry as the second back on what KRCG in Columbia (Bryan Hudnell, Aug. 5, 2026) called the SEC's top rushing team.
Roberts has 89 of Missouri's 149 rushing attempts, 60%. Take out the quarterback runs, the way DFS writers usually quote a backfield split, and it is 66%. Xai'Shaun Edwards is next with 26.
Game by game: 13 of 45 against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, then 28 of 41 at Kansas, 22 of 28 against Troy, and 26 of 35 at Mississippi State. After the opener he has been the whole job.
How I count it: his carries divided by Missouri's rushing attempts in the ESPN box scores. College stats count sacks as runs, so the first number understates his share of the designed carries.
The workload is great. The yards per carry are not.
His long run of the season is a 64-yard touchdown at Kansas (ESPN box score, Sept. 11). Take that one carry out and he has 331 yards on 88 carries, 3.8 a carry. Last week at Mississippi State he had 26 carries for 95 yards and no touchdown in a 31-24 loss, a game Missouri led 24-17 in the third quarter before Mississippi State scored twice in the fourth, per the AP recap.
He is also not catching much: 5 catches for 47 yards in four games. His points depend on volume and touchdowns, which is fine as long as nobody takes the volume.
Week 1, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, a 54-14 win on Sept. 3: 13 carries, 47 yards, a touchdown. 10.7 points.
Week 2, at Kansas, a 38-21 win on Sept. 11: 28 carries, 125 yards, a touchdown, one lost fumble. 16.6 points (AP recap).
Week 3, Troy, a 27-17 win on Sept. 19: 22 carries, 128 yards, a touchdown, 2 catches. 21.1 points (AP recap).
Week 4, at Mississippi State, a 31-24 loss on Sept. 26: 26 carries, 95 yards, 2 catches for 38. 14.3 points.
Three teams, all in The Tailgate, at picks 68, 69 and 71, right on ADP. My preseason board liked him a bit more and had him 55th. The board's note at the time read: "Expected early RB1 while Ahmad Hardy remains out." That part has been exactly right for a month.
One of the three also has Byrum Brown and Ousmane Kromah, so three of this week's new spotlights are on that one team, all playing Saturday.
Saturday · DraftKings and FanDuel
DK SALARY
$7,300
proj 19.2
DK OWN
20.5%
our projection
FD SALARY
$8,400
proj 15.8
LINE
+5.5
team total 26.0
Projections and ownership are ours, from the ATO builder as of Friday night. Salaries and the line are the market's.
The AP has Florida eighth and Missouri 25th. Florida has allowed 2.8 yards a carry, 19th of 138 teams in our data, and its own back, Jadan Baugh, leads the nation with 11 rushing touchdowns per the AP.
At about 20% projected ownership on DraftKings, a lot of lineups will play Roberts for the carry share. That is a fair reason. The risk is the matchup: a 5.5-point home underdog against a defense allowing under three yards a carry. If Missouri falls behind, the volume that makes him worth $7,300 is the first thing to go. Our own ratings disagree with the market on this game, though. The Game Value column makes Missouri a 1-point favorite, against the market's Florida -5.5. If ours is closer, the game-script worry shrinks. Either way I see him as a fair DFS price this week rather than a smash.
Best Ball Playoffs · Missouri (bye Week 8)
WEEK 11
at Georgia
WEEK 12
vs Kentucky
WEEK 13
vs Oklahoma
Kentucky at home in Week 12 is the friendly one. Georgia on the road is the hardest playoff game on any of these four pages.
Hardy matters more here than anything on the schedule. If he is back and healthy by November, those three weeks may not be Roberts' backfield at all.
These are Underdog best ball teams. Nothing gets traded or dropped, so the verdict is about what I do in my next drafts at this price.
Two-thirds of the carries on a good offense is RB2 volume, and he has delivered about what I paid for. But his value is tied to a teammate's recovery that nobody, including his coach, can time. In my next drafts I would take him near ADP and not before it, and I would pair him with a back whose role does not hinge on someone else's health.
If Hardy returns and Roberts still takes half the carries, the bet survives and he is a bargain at 67.
If Florida holds him under 3 yards a carry on 20-plus attempts, the efficiency worry is real and not just one bad week at Mississippi State.
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Exposure figures from my own Underdog draft exports. ADP from Underdog best ball rankings. Statistics and quotes from published reporting. Nothing here is betting advice, and I am telling you what I did, not what you should do.