College Football · Game Value
CFB Week 5 betting preview, Saturday update: the ten best games of Oct 3 ranked by the ATO Game Value score, with Friday night's spreads, totals and where our number differs from the market.
This is the Saturday update of the Week 5 Game Value column, and it covers Saturday only. The Thursday and Friday games have all kicked off, which takes three of Monday's top ten off the list: North Texas at Tulsa, Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech and Penn State at Northwestern. What is left is Saturday's 54 games, every one with a DraftKings spread and total, rescored on lines as of 9:01pm ET Friday (01:01 UTC Oct 3) and the latest ATO ratings.
Each game is scored out of 100 on how close it is, how good both teams are, how many points the market expects, and how far our number sits from the market's. Alabama at Mississippi State moves to the top, ahead of Monday's leader, Florida at Missouri. Kentucky at South Carolina, Louisville at NC State and Ohio at Kent State are new to the ten. Auburn at Tennessee still brings the best storyline.
One word on the Angle part before anyone reads it as a tip. Our margin model has been checked against closing lines several ways this season and has not beaten them. A game where we differ from the market is a game worth watching closely, not a bet we are recommending.
Every game with a DraftKings spread and total gets a score out of 100, built from four parts you can recompute from the table below:
| Part | Max | Formula | What it rewards |
|---|---|---|---|
| Close | 30 | 30 × (1 − spread ÷ 21), never below 0 | A real game: pick'em scores full, three touchdowns scores zero |
| Quality | 30 | 30 × (weaker team's ATO rating + 5) ÷ 25, 0 to 30 | Both teams good, judged by the weaker one |
| Points | 20 | 20 × (total − 40) ÷ 25, 0 to 20 | A high market total: 65 or more scores full |
| Angle | 20 | 20 × gap ÷ 10, capped at 20 | Our number and the market's disagree by up to 10 points |
Spread is the market's, ignoring sign. Gap is the distance between our spread and the market's. Our spread is home rating minus away rating plus 3.2 points of home field, straight from the ATO power ratings, a ridge-regressed margin model refit before each slate.
| # | Game | Kickoff | Spread | Total | Ours | Close | Quality | Points | Angle | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama @ Mississippi State | Sat Oct 3, 12 PM ET | Alabama -5.5 | 60.5 | Alabama -12.5 | 22.1 | 14.3 | 16.4 | 14.3 | 67.2 |
| 2 | Florida @ Missouri | Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET | Florida -5.5 | 57.5 | Missouri -1 | 22.1 | 17.6 | 14.0 | 12.7 | 66.5 |
| 3 | West Virginia @ Iowa State | Sat Oct 3, 12 PM ET | Iowa State -3 | 53.5 | Iowa State -14 | 25.7 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 20.0 | 62.4 |
| 4 | Virginia @ Florida State | Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET | Virginia -1.5 | 51.5 | Florida State -5 | 27.9 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 61.9 |
| 5 | Auburn @ Tennessee | Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET | Tennessee -6.5 | 53.5 | Tennessee -12.5 | 20.7 | 16.5 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 59.7 |
| 6 | BYU @ TCU | Sat Oct 3, 7 PM ET | BYU -6 | 48.5 | TCU -0.5 | 21.4 | 16.7 | 6.8 | 13.2 | 58.2 |
| 7 | Washington @ USC | Sat Oct 3, 7:30 PM ET | USC -8.5 | 58.5 | USC -6.5 | 17.9 | 19.9 | 14.8 | 4.3 | 56.9 |
| 8 | Kentucky @ South Carolina | Sat Oct 3, 4:15 PM ET | South Carolina -2.5 | 53.5 | South Carolina -5 | 26.4 | 13.7 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 56.0 |
| 9 | Louisville @ NC State | Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET | Louisville -3 | 58.5 | Louisville -4.5 | 25.7 | 11.4 | 14.8 | 2.6 | 54.5 |
| 10 | Ohio @ Kent State | Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET | Ohio -3.5 | 50.5 | Ohio -16 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 8.4 | 20.0 | 53.4 |
Spread and total are DraftKings. Ours is our spread rounded to the half point; the score uses the unrounded number.
Game Value
Score
67.2
of 100
Close
22.1
Alabama -5.5
Quality
14.3
weaker team +6.9
Points
16.4
total 60.5
Angle
14.3
gap 7.2
Mississippi State is 4-0 and has beaten the number by 14.4 points a game, which is how a team we rate 39th gets a one-score line against our fifth-best team. Alabama has won every game by at least 14, Florida State and South Carolina included.
We make this closer to two scores than one. That is the market paying for Mississippi State's September and our ratings declining to, and either side could be the one that is late. The 60.5 total is the highest in the top ten.
Where our number differs: the market has Alabama -5.5; we make it Alabama -12.5, 7.2 points closer to Alabama. Kickoff Sat Oct 3, 12 PM ET.
Alabama: ATO rating +22.8 (#5), 4-0, +10.5 a game against the spread over 4 Mississippi State: ATO rating +6.9 (#39), 4-0, +14.4 a game against the spread over 4
Game Value
Score
66.5
of 100
Close
22.1
Florida -5.5
Quality
17.6
weaker team +9.7
Points
14.0
total 57.5
Angle
12.7
gap 6.3
Florida arrives 4-0 and has beaten the spread by almost 10 points a game, including a 52-28 win over Ole Miss last weekend and a 44-39 shootout at Auburn the week before. Missouri lost 31-24 at Mississippi State last week. Put those together and you get Florida as a 5.5-point road favorite.
Our ratings have the two teams 2.4 points apart on a neutral field, and home field more than covers that. So the second-best game of the day is also one where we side with the home underdog on the number. With a 57.5 total, it should be loud either way.
Where our number differs: the market has Florida -5.5; we make it Missouri -1, 6.3 points closer to Missouri. Kickoff Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET.
Florida: ATO rating +12.1 (#20), 4-0, +9.6 a game against the spread over 4 Missouri: ATO rating +9.7 (#27), 3-1, -5.6 a game against the spread over 4
Game Value
Score
62.4
of 100
Close
25.7
Iowa State -3
Quality
5.9
weaker team -0.1
Points
10.8
total 53.5
Angle
20.0
gap 11.1
The market makes Iowa State a field-goal favorite. We make it two touchdowns. Iowa State's losses came by three at Iowa, as a 14-point underdog, and to Utah, and our ratings read both as respectable. West Virginia won at Virginia, then gave up 41 at home to Oklahoma State last week.
The Quality score is modest because West Virginia rates as a roughly average FBS team by our numbers, and that is the whole disagreement in one line.
Where our number differs: the market has Iowa State -3; we make it Iowa State -14, 11.1 points closer to Iowa State. Kickoff Sat Oct 3, 12 PM ET.
West Virginia: ATO rating -0.1 (#72), 3-1, -1.9 a game against the spread over 4 Iowa State: ATO rating +10.8 (#26), 2-2, +7.1 a game against the spread over 4
Game Value
Score
61.9
of 100
Close
27.9
Virginia -1.5
Quality
12.2
weaker team +5.2
Points
9.2
total 51.5
Angle
12.6
gap 6.3
Virginia is a 1.5-point favorite in Tallahassee, and our number goes the other way. Florida State is 2-2, but the losses came by three to SMU and to Alabama in a game the Seminoles scored 36. Virginia's only loss was at home to West Virginia, 38-27, as a 10.5-point favorite.
The records say Virginia. The ratings, which weigh who you played and by how much, lean Florida State.
Where our number differs: the market has Virginia -1.5; we make it Florida State -5, 6.3 points closer to Florida State. Kickoff Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET.
Virginia: ATO rating +5.2 (#49), 3-1, +7.1 a game against the spread over 4 Florida State: ATO rating +6.8 (#40), 2-2, -6.9 a game against the spread over 4
Game Value
Score
59.7
of 100
Close
20.7
Tennessee -6.5
Quality
16.5
weaker team +8.8
Points
10.8
total 53.5
Angle
11.7
gap 5.8
This is the best story on the slate. Alex Golesh, named the 33rd head coach in Auburn history last November after three seasons at USF (Auburn Athletics, ESPN), brings his team to Knoxville to face the coach he worked for.
Golesh joined Josh Heupel's staff at UCF for the 2020 season as co-offensive coordinator and tight ends coach (UCF Athletics). When Heupel took the Tennessee job, Golesh came with him and spent 2021 and 2022 as the Vols' offensive coordinator and tight ends coach (Tennessee Athletics). USF made him its head coach after the 2022 season (USF Athletics), and he went 23-15 there before Auburn hired him.
Three seasons on the same staff means there is not much either sideline can show the other that it has not seen in a meeting room.
Our number leans Tennessee, and further than the market does: 12.5 against 6.5. Tennessee is 12th in our ratings and lost 20-17 to Texas last week as a 5.5-point underdog. Auburn is 31st. Its wins have come by one point over Baylor, by 35 over Southern Miss and by six over Vanderbilt, and its loss was the 44-39 game with Florida. The storyline is the reason to watch. Our ratings say the home side is the stronger team.
Where our number differs: the market has Tennessee -6.5; we make it Tennessee -12.5, 5.8 points closer to Tennessee. Kickoff Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET.
Auburn: ATO rating +8.8 (#31), 3-1, -2.4 a game against the spread over 4 Tennessee: ATO rating +17.9 (#12), 3-1, +1.5 a game against the spread over 4
Game Value
Score
58.2
of 100
Close
21.4
BYU -6
Quality
16.7
weaker team +8.9
Points
6.8
total 48.5
Angle
13.2
gap 6.6
BYU is 3-0 and a 6-point favorite on the road. We rate these teams within three points of each other, BYU 25th and TCU 30th, which makes TCU a slight favorite at home.
TCU has lost twice by one score, to North Carolina and at UCF, scoring 13 or fewer both times. BYU's best result so far is an 11-point home win over Arizona.
Where our number differs: the market has BYU -6; we make it TCU -0.5, 6.6 points closer to TCU. Kickoff Sat Oct 3, 7 PM ET.
BYU: ATO rating +11.6 (#25), 3-0, +3.5 a game against the spread over 3 TCU: ATO rating +8.9 (#30), 2-2, -1.8 a game against the spread over 4
Game Value
Score
56.9
of 100
Close
17.9
USC -8.5
Quality
19.9
weaker team +11.6
Points
14.8
total 58.5
Angle
4.3
gap 2.1
This matchup has the highest Quality score in the top ten, USC 15th in our ratings and Washington 23rd. It sits seventh because the market has USC by 8.5, the longest line in the top ten, and our number is 6.5, close enough to the market that the Angle part adds little.
Both teams have fallen short of the spread all season. Washington has missed by 15.5 points a game, including a two-point win over Utah State as a four-touchdown favorite and a home loss to Minnesota last week. USC is coming off a 41-27 loss to Oregon.
Where our number differs: the market has USC -8.5; we make it USC -6.5, 2.1 points closer to Washington. Kickoff Sat Oct 3, 7:30 PM ET.
Washington: ATO rating +11.6 (#23), 3-1, -15.5 a game against the spread over 4 USC: ATO rating +14.8 (#15), 4-1, -8.0 a game against the spread over 5
Game Value
Score
56.0
of 100
Close
26.4
South Carolina -2.5
Quality
13.7
weaker team +6.4
Points
10.8
total 53.5
Angle
5.1
gap 2.6
Kentucky is 3-1 and has beaten the spread by 5.2 points a game. Its best result is a 31-21 win at Texas A&M as a 16.5-point underdog, and its loss was 45-17 at home to Alabama. South Carolina is 2-2, and both losses came in the last two weeks: 41-34 at home to Mississippi State as a 3-point favorite, then 49-18 at Alabama last Saturday.
The market has South Carolina by 2.5 at home. We have it by 5, South Carolina 33rd in our ratings and Kentucky 42nd. It is one of the closer lines in the top ten, which is most of why it is here.
Where our number differs: the market has South Carolina -2.5; we make it South Carolina -5, 2.6 points closer to South Carolina. Kickoff Sat Oct 3, 4:15 PM ET.
Kentucky: ATO rating +6.4 (#42), 3-1, +5.2 a game against the spread over 4 South Carolina: ATO rating +8.2 (#33), 2-2, -3.9 a game against the spread over 4
Game Value
Score
54.5
of 100
Close
25.7
Louisville -3
Quality
11.4
weaker team +4.5
Points
14.8
total 58.5
Angle
2.6
gap 1.3
On Monday the market had Louisville by 6 with a 60.5 total. By Friday night it was Louisville by 3 and 58.5. Our number sits between, at 4.5, so this has the smallest Angle part in the top ten and gets here on a close line and a high total.
Both teams are 2-2. Louisville lost 41-38 to Ole Miss on a neutral field as a 6.5-point underdog, then lost 30-27 at home to Wake Forest last week as an 11.5-point favorite. NC State lost 34-8 at Virginia and 35-31 at Vanderbilt, and beat App State 41-31 last week. We rate Louisville 21st and NC State 51st.
Where our number differs: the market has Louisville -3; we make it Louisville -4.5, 1.3 points closer to Louisville. Kickoff Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET.
Louisville: ATO rating +12.0 (#21), 2-2, +0.6 a game against the spread over 4 NC State: ATO rating +4.5 (#51), 2-2, +3.5 a game against the spread over 4
Game Value
Score
53.4
of 100
Close
25.0
Ohio -3.5
Quality
0.0
weaker team -24.9
Points
8.4
total 50.5
Angle
20.0
gap 12.4
This is the one game in the ten with a Quality score of zero. It gets here on a close line and the widest gap in the top ten: the market has Ohio by 3.5, down from 5.5 on Monday, and we make it 16. Kent State is 168th in our ratings, and its two losses were 57-0 at South Carolina and 59-3 at Ohio State. Its wins came over Wofford and, last week, Ball State, 26-13. Ohio is 93rd and 2-2, with wins over Jacksonville State and Stonehill.
Treat a gap this size as a warning as much as an opinion. When our number is this far from the market, the blind spot is at least as likely to be ours.
Where our number differs: the market has Ohio -3.5; we make it Ohio -16, 12.4 points closer to Ohio. Kickoff Sat Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET.
Ohio: ATO rating -5.7 (#93), 2-2, -1.6 a game against the spread over 4 Kent State: ATO rating -24.9 (#168), 2-2, -0.9 a game against the spread over 4
Lines are DraftKings as of 9:01pm ET Friday, Oct 2, and will move before kickoff. Game Value ranks games to watch, and Angle only measures disagreement. None of this is a prediction of a result.
For entertainment only. If you bet, bet what you can afford to lose, and if it stops being fun, the National Problem Gambling Helpline is 1-800-GAMBLER.
Spreads and totals are DraftKings, captured before kickoff. Ratings are ATO's own margin model; no other site's projections go into it. Game Value ranks games to watch and is not a betting recommendation. For entertainment only; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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