Graded · 2 contests · 1,114 entries
CFB Week 7 FanDuel ownership: ND @ BYU Single Game
What the field actually played on the CFB Week 7 FanDuel ND @ BYU Single Game, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
1 game · showdown
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- CFB
- Week
- Week 7
- Site
- FanDuel
- Format
- Showdown (single game)
- Games
- 1
- Teams
- BYU, ND
- First lock
- Sat Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET
- Player pool
- 18 players
- Projections
- Captured Sat Oct 17, 9:37 AM ET, before lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 2 small-field or limited-entry tournament contests, 1,114 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ CarrND | QB | 33.8% | 82.4% | +48.6 |
| Bear BachmeierBYU | QB | 46.8% | 81.0% | +34.2 |
| Jordan FaisonND | WR | 53.8% | 55.7% | +1.9 |
| Jonaz WaltonND | RB | 61.1% | 45.0% | −16.1 |
| Kyler KasperBYU | WR | 33.6% | 43.0% | +9.4 |
| Roger Saleapaga IIBYU not in our pool | TE | - | 40.0% | +40.0 |
| Nolan James Jr.ND | RB | 39.0% | 34.4% | −4.6 |
| Walker LyonsBYU | WR | 42.6% | 33.1% | −9.5 |
| Aneyas WilliamsND | RB | 43.9% | 26.7% | −17.2 |
| Micah GilbertND | WR | 38.1% | 25.2% | −12.8 |
| Jaden GreathouseND | WR | 29.1% | 22.1% | −6.9 |
| Legend GlaskerBYU | WR | 38.5% | 19.6% | −18.9 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ CarrND | QB | 33.8% | 82.4% | +48.6 |
| Roger Saleapaga IIBYU not in our pool | TE | - | 40.0% | +40.0 |
| Bear BachmeierBYU | QB | 46.8% | 81.0% | +34.2 |
| Elijah BurressND not in our pool | WR | - | 9.9% | +9.9 |
| Kyler KasperBYU | WR | 33.6% | 43.0% | +9.4 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legend GlaskerBYU | WR | 38.5% | 19.6% | −18.9 |
| Jojo PhillipsBYU | WR | 24.0% | 5.5% | −18.5 |
| Journee TongaBYU | RB | 30.5% | 12.4% | −18.2 |
| Aneyas WilliamsND | RB | 43.9% | 26.7% | −17.2 |
| Jonaz WaltonND | RB | 61.1% | 45.0% | −16.1 |
Small-field or limited-entry tournament contests · n = 32 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 32 players across 2 small-field or limited-entry tournament contests (1,114 entries). On average our number was 11.6 percentage points away from the field's. On the 14 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 18.1 points. Across the board the field owned these players 0.4 points less than we projected, on average.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small-field or limited-entry tournament | 2 | 32 | 11.6 | 0.71 |
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 2 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| $150 Sat CFB Spring Game (Only $0.25 to Enter) | 718 | $0.25 |
| $3K Sat CFB ND/BYU Wishbone ($1K to 1st) | 396 | $9 |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 18 players, our point projections missed by 5.5 fantasy points on average (6.4 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.58 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear BachmeierBYU | 17.5 | 36.5 | +19.0 |
| Jaden GreathouseND | 4.6 | 16.5 | +11.9 |
| CJ CarrND | 20.3 | 9.7 | −10.6 |
| Walker LyonsBYU | 4.4 | 13.4 | +9.0 |
| Kyler KasperBYU | 5.7 | 14.2 | +8.5 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 2 | 14.8 | +4.2 |
| RB | 7 | 4.1 | −1.2 |
| WR | 9 | 4.6 | +2.1 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
Members get projected ownership and points for every player on every slate we cover, lineups tested in contest simulations, and this grade on each one afterwards.
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