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From Our Archive
What is chalk in DFS?
Across 79 classic slates, the most owned player averaged 56.7% ownership. Our archive shows what those players scored and how often we saw them coming.
Try ATO's paid DFS tools for projections, ownership and lineups tested through contest simulations.
Explore DFS ToolsKey takeaways
- Of 236 chalk players on classic slates, 34% finished among their slate's top 10 scorers.
- Across 26 NBA DraftKings classic slates, 56% of chalk players scored above ATO's points projection.
- Across 37 classic slates with 2 to 4 games, the most owned player averaged 66.6% ownership.
- ATO's highest projected ownership matched the actual most owned player on only 12 of 79 classic slates (15%).
Chalk in DFS means the most owned players on a slate, the players appearing in the largest share of contest entries. Across 79 classic slates in our archive, the single most owned player averaged 56.7% ownership. We track the 3 most owned players on each graded classic slate, then compare their actual fantasy points with the projections we saved before the first game starts.
How does slate size change chalk?
Across 37 short slates of 2 to 4 games, the most owned player averaged 66.6% ownership. Across 24 slates of 8 games or more, that average was 42.6%. Chalk was more concentrated when the player pool was smaller.
Short slates also averaged 10.2 players at 30% ownership or more, compared with 3.7 players on slates of 8 games or more. That gives the same ownership percentage a different context depending on the slate.
| Slate size | Slates | Top player owned, avg | Players 20%+ | Players 30%+ | Chalk beat our points | Chalk in top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short slates of 2 to 4 games | 37 | 66.6% | 16.5 | 10.2 | 53% | 48% |
| Slates of 5 to 7 games | 18 | 55.1% | 12.6 | 6.6 | 55% | 26% |
| Slates of 8 games or more | 24 | 42.6% | 10.0 | 3.7 | 51% | 18% |
Chalk here is the 3 most owned players on each slate. Players 20%+ and 30%+ are averages per slate.
The most owned player averaged 55.1% ownership across the 18 slates of 5 to 7 games, between those smaller and larger groups. Check the number of games before deciding how much a player's ownership stands out.
Who was the most owned player, and what did he score?
Brad Jackson, TXST, reached 90.5% ownership on the CFB DraftKings slate on Oct 15, 2026, the highest ownership for a player in our classic archive. He scored 51.6 fantasy points against our projection of 33.3, finishing second among 81 players in that slate's ownership results.
Puka Nacua, LAR, was the most owned player at 85.8% on the NFL DraftKings afternoon slate on Nov 1, 2026. He scored 25 fantasy points against our projection of 21.0, finishing third among 90 players in the ownership results.
| Player | Slate | Date | Owned | We projected owned | Our points | Scored | Points rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Jackson TXST, QB | CFB DraftKings | Oct 15, 2026 | 90.5% | 96.8% | 33.3 | 51.6 | 2 of 81 |
| Puka Nacua LAR, WR | NFL DraftKings | Nov 1, 2026 | 85.8% | 85.1% | 21.0 | 25 | 3 of 90 |
| Davion Gause NCST, RB | CFB DraftKings | Oct 23, 2026 | 81.0% | 45.4% | 11.8 | 15 | 9 of 47 |
| Paul Reed DET, C | NBA DraftKings | Oct 25, 2026 | 80.6% | 17.2% | 28.4 | 25.5 | 34 of 112 |
| Caden Creel JACST, QB | CFB DraftKings | Oct 28, 2026 | 79.8% | 85.8% | 26.2 | 36.5 | 1 of 62 |
| Kenneth Walker III KC, RB | NFL DraftKings | Oct 18, 2026 | 78.6% | 86.8% | 22.4 | 30.9 | 1 of 73 |
| Maguire Anderson FIU, WR | CFB DraftKings | Oct 20, 2026 | 78.3% | 100.0% | 19.9 | 7 | 15 of 51 |
| Austin Reaves LAL, PG/SG | NBA DraftKings | Oct 28, 2026 | 78.0% | 66.6% | 41.8 | 21 | 17 of 57 |
| Nikola Jokic DEN, C | NBA DraftKings | Oct 24, 2026 | 77.4% | 55.3% | 57.0 | 81.8 | 1 of 61 |
| Fame Ijeboi PUR, RB | CFB DraftKings | Oct 16, 2026 | 74.1% | 63.6% | 19.1 | 13.2 | 19 of 97 |
Points rank: where the player finished in fantasy points among every player with ownership results on that slate.
Austin Reaves, LAL, led ownership at 78.0% on the NBA DraftKings night slate on Oct 28, 2026. He scored 21 fantasy points against our projection of 41.8 and finished 17th among 57 players in the ownership results. Compare the points with the projection before calling a popular pick a good one.
How often did chalk pay off?
Of 236 chalk players across 79 classic slates, 125 players, or 53%, beat our fantasy point projection. Another measure was less forgiving: 80 players, or 34%, finished among their slate's top 10 scorers. About half beat our expectation; about a third reached that scoring group.
Chalk players averaged 25.0 fantasy points against our average projection of 23.8. But 26 of those 236 players, or 11%, scored less than half their projected points. The average leaves room for some rough individual results.
Nikola Jokic, DEN, led ownership at 77.4% on the NBA DraftKings night slate on Oct 24, 2026. He scored 81.8 fantasy points against our projection of 57.0, finishing first among 61 players in the ownership results.
Zay Flowers, BAL, went 32.8% owned on the NFL DraftKings early slate on Nov 1, 2026, and scored 0 fantasy points against our projection of 18.5. He finished 133rd among 196 players in the ownership results.
| Player | Slate | Date | Owned | We projected owned | Our points | Scored | Points rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Fears NO, PG/SG | NBA DraftKings | Oct 29, 2026 | 57.1% | 13.1% | 21.9 | 65 | 1 of 90 |
| Torrance Burgess Jr. TXST, RB | CFB DraftKings | Oct 15, 2026 | 86.7% | 60.8% | 17.5 | 57.6 | 1 of 81 |
| Ty Jerome MEM, PG/SG | NBA DraftKings | Oct 21, 2026 | 41.7% | 11.1% | 33.6 | 66.8 | 2 of 336 |
| Caleb Hawkins OKST, RB | CFB FanDuel | Oct 31, 2026 | 27.5% | 22.1% | 20.4 | 48.5 | 1 of 264 |
| Nikola Jokic DEN, C | NBA DraftKings | Oct 24, 2026 | 77.4% | 55.3% | 57.0 | 81.8 | 1 of 61 |
| Player | Slate | Date | Owned | We projected owned | Our points | Scored | Points rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg GS, SF/PF | NBA DraftKings | Oct 30, 2026 | 63.1% | 65.0% | 39.1 | 5.2 | 39 of 62 |
| Scottie Barnes TOR, SF/PF | NBA DraftKings | Oct 25, 2026 | 49.1% | 37.3% | 41.7 | 16.8 | 51 of 112 |
| Austin Reaves LAL, PG/SG | NBA DraftKings | Oct 28, 2026 | 78.0% | 66.6% | 41.8 | 21 | 17 of 57 |
| Chris Marshall ARK, WR | CFB DraftKings | Oct 17, 2026 | 46.8% | 89.0% | 23.6 | 3.8 | 82 of 184 |
| Zay Flowers BAL, WR | NFL DraftKings | Nov 1, 2026 | 32.8% | 46.7% | 18.5 | 0 | 133 of 196 |
Points rank: where the player finished in fantasy points among every player with ownership results on that slate.
Across 48 NFL DraftKings chalk players on 16 slates, 54% beat our projection. Across 21 NFL FanDuel chalk players on 7 slates, 48% did. Those are separate samples, and the smaller groups deserve less weight.
| Slate type | Slates | Chalk players | Top player owned, avg | Beat our points | Top 10 scorer | Under half our points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA DraftKings | 26 | 77 | 59.4% | 56% | 39% | 9% |
| CFB DraftKings | 19 | 57 | 60.3% | 54% | 35% | 12% |
| NFL DraftKings | 16 | 48 | 55.8% | 54% | 33% | 12% |
| NFL FanDuel | 7 | 21 | 53.1% | 48% | 24% | 24% |
| CFB FanDuel | 6 | 18 | 47.7% | 50% | 28% | 6% |
| NBA FanDuelsmall sample | 4 | 12 | 49.5% | 42% | 25% | 0% |
| CBB DraftKingssmall sample | 1 | 3 | 40.5% | 33% | 33% | 0% |
Rows marked small sample have fewer than 5 slates; too few to read much into.
With 53% of chalk players beating our projection across the full classic sample, our lean is to evaluate the player rather than automatically oppose the crowd. Put ownership beside projected points when reviewing a lineup.
Did we see the chalk coming?
Our highest projected ownership matched the actual most owned player on 12 of 79 classic slates, or 15%. Among the actual 5 most owned players, we had an average of 1.9 players in our projected top 5 across those 79 slates. We missed plenty of the players the field chose most.
Paul Reed, DET, is a clear miss: we projected 17.2% ownership for the NBA DraftKings slate on Oct 25, 2026, and he finished at 80.6%. He was the slate's most owned player and scored 25.5 fantasy points against our projection of 28.4.
Puka Nacua was a closer ownership call on Nov 1, 2026: we projected 85.1%, and his actual ownership was 85.8% on that NFL DraftKings slate. Read that result beside Reed's when judging how much weight to put on our ownership projections.
What our record cannot tell you yet
Our 79 classic slates cover about four weeks. That is the sample behind these results, and sport and site cells with fewer than 5 slates are too small to read much into. NBA FanDuel has 4 slates; CBB DraftKings has 1 slate.
DraftKings ownership is understated for players used in multiple roster positions in most contests covered by the results feed. That feed records only each player's largest roster slot, leaving out additional ownership in a flex spot. FanDuel results and direct standings exports are exact.
Our 79 graded classic slates include only projections saved before the first game starts; we exclude slates rebuilt after games began or without evidence that the projection came first. Treat these results as a record of this sample, and check the sample size and ownership limits before applying a table to your slate.
FAQ
Why is it called chalk?
Chalk is a betting term for the favorite. In our DFS archive, we use it for the 3 most owned players on each graded classic slate. Read it as a description of popularity.
What ownership percentage makes a player chalk?
The most owned player ranged from 27.5% to 90.5% ownership across our 79 classic slates. There is no fixed cutoff in our definition: compare the player with the rest of that slate.
Should I avoid chalk in DFS?
Across 236 chalk players, 53% beat our projection and 11% scored less than half their projected points. Those results support reviewing each player's projection alongside ownership before choosing a lineup.
Is showdown chalk the same as classic chalk?
We keep them separate because showdown ownership includes every roster spot, including captain or MVP, so a star can sit near 100% ownership. Use the results for the format you are playing.
How we graded this
After The Timeout publishes this archive of every DFS slate we project ownership for across NFL, NBA, CFB and CBB on DraftKings and FanDuel. The graded record covers 148 slates, 315 contests and 13,435,373 entries from Oct 10, 2026 to Nov 2, 2026.
We save ownership and points projections before the first game starts and never edit them afterward. After the games, we attach real ownership from contest standings and real fantasy points from the site's scoring. We measure the miss in points of ownership, and a slate needs at least 2 finished contests of the same type to be graded.
We exclude 11 slates rebuilt after games started and mark breakouts under 5 slates as small sample. We publish misses alongside hits. Read the full method on the How Our Model Works page.
Explore the paid ATO DFS tools for projections, ownership and lineups tested through contest simulations. Compare our numbers before the first game starts.
See the DFS toolsHow Our Model Works