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Classic tournament results
Does ownership matter in DFS?
Across 79 classic slates, popular players scored more on average. Players under 10% owned still led 16 slates in points.
Try ATO's paid DFS tools for projections, ownership and lineups tested through contest simulations.
Explore DFS ToolsKey takeaways
- Across 79 classic slates, the highest scorer was at least 20% owned on 50 slates (63%).
- Across 19 CFB DraftKings slates, 40% of the top 3 scorers were under 10% owned.
- The 5,587 players under 5% owned averaged 9.3 fantasy points.
- Our archive covers 12,290 player results, but contains no full lineups or payouts to show whether an ownership strategy made money.
Yes, ownership matters in DFS tournaments because you are paid for beating other entries. Across each classic slate’s 3 highest scorers, 237 players across 79 slates, 53% were at least 20% owned and 28% were under 10% owned. Big scores came from both chalk and players the field mostly skipped, so read ownership alongside projected points.
Did the crowd pick better players?
Players at 30% ownership or more averaged 24.0 points across 581 player results. Players under 5% ownership averaged 9.3 points across 5,587 player results. Popular players, often called chalk, scored more on average in our archive.
Among those 581 players at 30% ownership or more, 52% beat our points projection. Among the 5,587 players under 5% ownership, 40% beat it. The crowd’s favorites also beat our expectations more often.
| Real ownership | Players | Avg points | Our avg projection | Beat our projection | Top 10 scorer | Scored 0 or less |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5% | 5,587 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 40% | 2% | 20% |
| 5% to 10% | 943 | 17.4 | 16.8 | 47% | 11% | 4% |
| 10% to 20% | 926 | 18.9 | 18.5 | 48% | 18% | 3% |
| 20% to 30% | 482 | 22.8 | 21.6 | 52% | 27% | 1% |
| 30% or more | 581 | 24.0 | 23.0 | 52% | 39% | 1% |
79 classic slates, players in our pool with a points projection.
Among those same ownership buckets, 39% of the 581 most popular players finished among their slate’s top 10 scorers, compared with 2% of the 5,587 players under 5% ownership. Use the bucket results to check the assumption that an overlooked player is automatically a better tournament play.
What does leverage mean in DFS?
A player at 40% ownership whom you use in 20% of your lineups is someone you are underweight on. Leverage describes how your exposure to a player compares with the field’s. When a player scores, sharing him with much of the field gives you less separation from those entries.
The single highest scorer was under 10% owned on 16 of 79 classic slates. He was at least 20% owned on 50 of those 79 slates. Either ownership group could supply the score everyone needed.
| Slate type | Slates | Top 3 scorers under 10% owned | Top 3 scorers 20%+ owned | Top scorer under 10% owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA DraftKings | 26 | 19% | 62% | 12% |
| CFB DraftKings | 19 | 40% | 46% | 32% |
| NFL DraftKings | 16 | 21% | 48% | 19% |
| NFL FanDuel | 7 | 29% | 52% | 14% |
| CFB FanDuel | 6 | 44% | 44% | 17% |
| NBA FanDuelsmall sample | 4 | 33% | 58% | 25% |
| CBB DraftKingssmall sample | 1 | 33% | 67% | 100% |
| All classic | 79 | 28% | 53% | 20% |
Rows marked small sample have fewer than 5 slates; too few to read much into.
The most owned player finished among the slate’s 3 highest scorers on 11 of 79 slates. That result describes how often the field’s favorite reached that scoring tier; it does not tell us whether using or fading him produced better lineups. When assessing leverage, compare your exposure with the field’s and keep the player’s scoring projection beside it.
Which top scorers did the field mostly skip?
LaNorris Sellers scored 46.6 points at 2.6% recorded ownership on his CFB DraftKings slate, finishing highest among 291 players with ownership results. We projected 22.8 points and 8.2% ownership. His result exceeded our points projection while his recorded ownership fell below our estimate.
Drake Maye scored 42.5 points at 4.9% ownership on his NFL FanDuel slate, finishing highest among 529 players with ownership results. We projected 18.8 points and 8.9% ownership. That is a concrete example of a slate leading score shared by relatively few entries.
| Player | Slate | Date | Owned | We projected owned | Our points | Scored | Points rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaNorris Sellers SCAR, QB | CFB DraftKings | Oct 31, 2026 | 2.6% | 8.2% | 22.8 | 46.6 | 1 of 291 |
| DeSean Bishop TENN, RB | CFB DraftKings | Oct 17, 2026 | 3.2% | 12.1% | 18.6 | 35.5 | 1 of 288 |
| Tyler Hughes WYO, QB | CFB FanDuel | Oct 23, 2026 | 4.6% | 23.6% | 23.9 | 33.1 | 1 of 101 |
| Drake Maye NE, QB | NFL FanDuel | Oct 11, 2026 | 4.9% | 8.9% | 18.8 | 42.5 | 1 of 529 |
| Anthony Edwards MIN, SG | NBA DraftKings | Oct 21, 2026 | 5.2% | 7.0% | 39.1 | 72.0 | 1 of 336 |
| Drake Maye NE, QB | NFL DraftKings | Oct 11, 2026 | 5.2% | 5.0% | 18.8 | 42.5 | 1 of 248 |
Points rank: where the player finished in fantasy points among every player with ownership results on that slate.
Tyler Hughes scored 33.1 points at 4.6% ownership on his CFB FanDuel slate, leading 101 players with ownership results. We had projected 23.6% ownership. Read the ownership projections beside the results: an overlooked scorer can also expose a substantial miss in our expectation of the field.
How accurate were our ownership projections?
Our average ownership miss was 3.4 points across 79 classic slates. Among the 2,023 players who finished at least 10% owned, the average miss was 12.6 points of ownership. That second number matters when using our projections to judge leverage.
An 18% ownership projection against 23% actual ownership is a miss of 5 points of ownership. Players projected near 0% are numerous, which can make the average across all players look small. Check the 12.6 point miss among players who finished at least 10% owned before treating an ownership estimate as precise.
What our record cannot tell you yet
Our 79 classic slates cover about four weeks and include 12,290 player results. These are player results, without full lineups or payouts, so we cannot say whether fading chalk or playing overlooked players made anyone money.
The under 5% bucket contains 5,587 players, compared with 581 players in the 30% or more bucket. Players with little ownership are far more numerous, so their contribution to the highest scores partly reflects how many chances they had.
The 79 slate sample also includes understated DraftKings ownership results. For most DraftKings contests supplied through the results feed, only a player’s largest roster slot is recorded, leaving out additional flex usage. FanDuel results and standings exports are exact.
NBA FanDuel has 4 slates in this sample, and CBB DraftKings has 1 slate. Cells under 5 slates are too few slates to read. Keep those sample sizes and the DraftKings measurement limits beside any conclusion you draw.
FAQ
Should I fade chalk in DFS tournaments?
Players at least 20% owned supplied the highest scorer on 50 of 79 classic slates. Our player results cannot tell us whether fading them made money, so use that finding to question an automatic fade.
Can a player with little ownership lead a slate?
The highest scorer was under 10% owned on 16 of 79 classic slates. That establishes that it happened; it does not establish a profitable way to select those players.
Does this apply to cash games or showdown?
These findings cover 79 classic slates graded against tournament contests. Cash games are not covered, and showdown is kept separate.
How should I read ATO’s projected ownership?
Across 79 classic slates, our average miss was 3.4 points of ownership, rising to 12.6 among 2,023 players who finished at least 10% owned. Read that miss record alongside the projection before the first game starts.
How we graded this
After The Timeout publishes this archive of every DFS slate we project ownership for across NFL, NBA, CFB and CBB on DraftKings and FanDuel. The graded record covers 148 slates, 315 contests and 13,435,373 entries from Oct 10, 2026 to Nov 2, 2026.
We save ownership and points projections before the first game starts and never edit them afterward. After the games, we attach real ownership from contest standings and real fantasy points from the site's scoring. We measure the miss in points of ownership, and a slate needs at least 2 finished contests of the same type to be graded.
We exclude 11 slates rebuilt after games started and mark breakouts under 5 slates as small sample. We publish misses alongside hits. Read the full method on the How Our Model Works page.
Explore the paid ATO DFS tools for projections, ownership and lineups tested through contest simulations. See the numbers behind your tournament decisions.
See the DFS toolsHow Our Model Works