How Accurate Are DFS Ownership Projections?

What Does An Ownership Miss Measure?

An 18% ownership projection means we expect a player to appear in 18% of contest entries. If that player finishes at 23% owned, the miss is 5 points of ownership. That measures the distance between our estimate and the crowd’s actual choices.

Across 148 graded slates, we saved projections before the first game starts, then attached actual ownership from contest results. We grade against large field tournaments when available, then small field tournaments, then high stakes tournaments, with at least 2 contests required for a group. Cash games never grade tournament ownership.

Across all 14,922 player grades, 78% landed within 5 points of our projection. Among the 5,254 players projected or actually owned at 5% or more, only 37% landed within 5 points. The second group gives you a fairer picture of accuracy for players drawing meaningful ownership.

Misses are in points of ownership. Players 5%+: players we projected, or who finished, at 5% owned or more. Avg miss 10%+: players who finished 10% owned or more. Correlation is across every player graded.

The 3.9 point average miss across all player grades and the 9.9 point average for the 5% group answer different questions. Start with the group that matches the players you’re considering.

How Do Format, Site And Sport Compare?

Across 79 classic slates, the average miss was 3.4 points of ownership, compared with 6.3 points across 69 showdown slates. For players projected or actually owned at 5% or more, those misses were 9.3 and 11.9 points. Showdown counts ownership across every roster spot, including captain or MVP, so a star can finish near 100% owned.

Correlation was 0.75 across classic player grades and 0.88 across showdown player grades. It tells us whether we ranked ownership in the right order; average miss tells us how far the numbers landed from actual ownership. Showdown had the stronger ordering alongside the larger numerical miss.

On 17 FanDuel classic slates, the average miss for players projected or actually owned at 5% or more was 7.3 points. On 62 DraftKings classic slates, it was 9.9 points. FanDuel has the smaller recorded miss here, but the DraftKings results have a measurement limitation we explain below.

Across DraftKings classic slates, the same ownership group had an average miss of 8.6 points for NFL players on 16 slates, 9.2 for NBA players on 26 slates and 12.5 for CFB players on 19 slates. CFB was the roughest of those samples.

On 37 NFL DraftKings showdown slates, that group’s average miss was 7.7 points, with correlation of 0.94 across all player grades. On 24 NBA DraftKings showdown slates, the group’s average miss was 19.5 points, with correlation of 0.85 across all player grades. NBA showdown deserves considerably more room for error in this record.

Top pick matched: slates where our highest projected ownership was the real most owned player. Rows marked small sample have fewer than 5 slates; too few to read much into.

The 7.7 point NFL miss and 19.5 point NBA miss on DraftKings showdown slates make a single overall average a poor guide for both. Check your sport, site and format before deciding how much weight to put on a projection.

Does The Contest Group Change The Result?

Across 72 classic slates with enough large field tournament contests, the average miss was 3.3 points of ownership. Across 13 classic slates with enough small field or limited entry tournament contests, it was 2.3 points. A slate can appear in both groups, so these are overlapping samples.

Across 32 showdown slates with large field tournament grades, the average miss was 5.0 points. Across 38 showdown slates with small field or limited entry tournament grades, it was 7.6 points. The group with the smaller recorded miss changed with the format.

Average miss here is across every player graded in that group, including the many near 0%.

Each group needs at least 2 contests to earn a grade. Use the matching contest group where we have enough results, and keep the overlap in mind when comparing samples.

Where Did We Miss The Crowd?

On only 12 of 79 classic slates, our highest projected player was the actual most owned player. Of the actual 5 most owned players, we had an average of 1.9 players in our projected top 5. Those results limit how much confidence we can put in naming the most popular classic play.

On 38 of 69 showdown slates, our top projected player matched the actual most owned player. Our projected top 5 included an average of 4.0 of the actual top 5 players. Showdown gave us a better read on who would draw ownership, even with its larger average numerical miss.

On a 3 game CFB DraftKings classic slate, we projected Derrick Eley and Conner Harrell at 100.0% ownership each. They finished at 13.3% and 20.9%. On a 2 game CFB DraftKings classic slate, we projected Roman Gagliano at 100.0%; he finished at 28.9%. Those were extreme projections that landed far above the recorded crowd.

On a 5 game CFB DraftKings classic slate, Josiah Lucas went from our 75.6% projection to 0.1% actual ownership. DraftKings ownership can be understated, but that limitation does not establish that these projections were close.

Quenton Jackson went from our 4.5% projection to 69.5% actual ownership on an 11 game NBA DraftKings classic slate. Brock Glenn went from 4.6% to 69.7% on a 2 game CFB DraftKings classic slate. Missing the crowd on cheap players can leave an ownership estimate far below the choice players actually made.

Naji Marshall finished at 72.9% ownership against our 8.4% projection on a 5 game NBA DraftKings classic slate. Paul Reed finished at 80.6% against our 17.2% projection on a 4 game NBA DraftKings classic slate. These misses belong beside the averages because an average cannot show how far an individual player can get away from us.

The 12 top player matches across 79 classic slates are reason enough to question any precise claim about who will lead ownership. Read the biggest misses alongside the headline grade before treating a projected rank as settled.

What our record cannot tell you yet

The 148 graded slates run from Oct 10, 2026 to Nov 2, 2026, about four weeks. Of 290 archived slates, 220 had complete results and projections saved before games started; 72 of those lacked enough tournament contests to grade ownership. This is every slate we could grade under those rules, and it is an early record.

Of the 315 contests behind the grades, 242 have DraftKings results labelled understated. For most DraftKings contests using the public results feed, only the largest roster slot for each player is recorded, leaving out ownership in a flex spot. That makes recorded ownership too low and can make our projections look too high where flex usage matters; FanDuel results and standings exports are exact.

CBB has only 1 graded slate. NBA FanDuel classic has 4 slates, NBA FanDuel showdown has 2, and CFB FanDuel showdown has 1. Those cells have too few slates to read much into.

Across 18 classic slates with exact standings, the average miss for players projected or actually owned at 5% or more was 7.3 points. That is useful context, but it does not resolve the understated DraftKings results. Check both sample size and the results label before comparing cells.

How Should You Use An Ownership Projection?

The 9.9 point average miss among players projected or actually owned at 5% or more supports treating ownership as a range of plausible outcomes around an estimate. It does not give you a fixed range that every player will stay inside: only 37% of those 5,254 player grades were within 5 points.

Across 79 classic slates, correlation was 0.75, yet our top projected player matched the actual leader on only 12 slates. Our lean is to use ownership as a rough read on the crowd, with room for substantial error on an individual player.

The 148 slate record grades ownership estimates, not whether a lineup decision made money. Keep that distinction in view when using the numbers, and read our How Our Model Works page for the full method.

Related reading

• What is chalk in DFS?
• Does ownership matter in DFS?
• DFS ownership by slate: every sport
• NFL DFS ownership by slate