Graded · 2 contests · 118,956 entries
NBA Oct 22 FanDuel ownership: Thursday slate
What the field actually played on the NBA Thu Oct 22 FanDuel Thursday slate, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
2 games · classic
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- NBA
- Site
- FanDuel
- Format
- Classic
- Games
- 2
- Teams
- CLE, DEN, OKC, PHI
- First lock
- Thu Oct 22, 7:00 PM ET
- Player pool
- 38 players
- Projections
- Captured Thu Oct 22, 6:38 PM ET, before lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 2 large-field tournament contests, 118,956 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel EmbiidPHI | C | 49.0% | 60.2% | +11.2 |
| Isaiah HartensteinOKC | C | 43.3% | 53.5% | +10.2 |
| Evan MobleyCLE | PF/C | 52.5% | 47.4% | −5.1 |
| Tyrese MaxeyPHI | PG | 38.1% | 47.1% | +9.1 |
| Jalen WilliamsOKC | SF/SG | 51.9% | 46.4% | −5.5 |
| Donovan MitchellCLE | SG | 38.2% | 46.2% | +8.0 |
| Peyton WatsonCLE | SF/PF | 32.5% | 46.0% | +13.5 |
| Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC | PG | 36.4% | 43.1% | +6.7 |
| Jaylen BrownPHI | SF | 52.6% | 42.3% | −10.4 |
| Cameron JohnsonDEN | SF | 29.1% | 41.8% | +12.8 |
| LeBron JamesPHI | PF | 44.9% | 41.3% | −3.5 |
| Ajay MitchellOKC | PG | 17.1% | 33.8% | +16.7 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajay MitchellOKC | PG | 17.1% | 33.8% | +16.7 |
| Peyton WatsonCLE | SF/PF | 32.5% | 46.0% | +13.5 |
| Cason WallaceOKC | SG | 16.9% | 29.8% | +12.9 |
| Cameron JohnsonDEN | SF | 29.1% | 41.8% | +12.8 |
| Joel EmbiidPHI | C | 49.0% | 60.2% | +11.2 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James HardenCLE | PG | 39.9% | 17.6% | −22.4 |
| Chet HolmgrenOKC | PF/C | 52.5% | 32.8% | −19.7 |
| Christian BraunDEN | SG/SF | 36.1% | 18.5% | −17.6 |
| Jamal MurrayDEN | PG | 29.9% | 15.5% | −14.4 |
| Marvin BagleyDEN | C | 13.5% | 3.1% | −10.4 |
Large-field tournament contests · n = 39 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 39 players across 2 large-field tournament contests (118,956 entries). On average our number was 7.5 percentage points away from the field's. On the 25 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 9.8 points. Across the board the field owned these players 0.2 points less than we projected, on average.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large-field tournament | 2 | 39 | 7.5 | 0.87 |
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 3 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| $4K Thu NBA Piggy Bank Shot (150 Entries Max) | 95,808 | $0.05 |
| $175K Thu NBA Shot ($50K to 1st) | 23,148 | $9 |
| $1.8K Thu NBA Big $2 Double Up (Top 450 Win) | 1,034 | $2 |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 38 players, our point projections missed by 8.9 fantasy points on average (9.0 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.76 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC | 48.1 | 26.9 | −21.2 |
| Nikola JokicDEN | 53.9 | 32.9 | −21.0 |
| Jamal MurrayDEN | 35.9 | 19.5 | −16.4 |
| DeMar DeRozanDEN | 25.4 | 10.4 | −15.0 |
| Jared McCainOKC | 18.4 | 3.5 | −14.9 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| C | 7 | 12.2 | −12.2 |
| C/PF | 2 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| PF | 3 | 6.6 | +2.7 |
| PF/C | 2 | 9.9 | +2.5 |
| PG | 7 | 10.5 | −5.9 |
| SF | 6 | 7.7 | −6.3 |
| SF/PF | 1 | 7.6 | −7.6 |
| SF/SG | 1 | 2.9 | −2.9 |
| SG | 8 | 9.2 | +1.4 |
| SG/SF | 1 | 6.3 | −6.3 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
Members get projected ownership and points for every player on every slate we cover, lineups tested in contest simulations, and this grade on each one afterwards.
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