Graded · 2 contests · 1,745 entries
NBA Oct 21 FanDuel ownership: DAL @ HOU Single Game
What the field actually played on the NBA Wed Oct 21 FanDuel DAL @ HOU Single Game, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
1 game · showdown
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- NBA
- Site
- FanDuel
- Format
- Showdown (single game)
- Games
- 1
- Teams
- DAL, HOU
- First lock
- Wed Oct 21, 8:30 PM ET
- Player pool
- 20 players
- Projections
- Captured Wed Oct 21, 8:07 PM ET, before lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 2 small-field or limited-entry tournament contests, 1,745 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alperen SengunHOU | C | 100.0% | 66.8% | −33.2 |
| Kevin DurantHOU | SF | 100.0% | 62.9% | −37.1 |
| Amen ThompsonHOU | SG/PG | 100.0% | 54.0% | −46.0 |
| Cooper FlaggDAL | SF | 100.0% | 53.4% | −46.6 |
| Fred VanVleetHOU | PG | 0.0% | 46.4% | +46.4 |
| Daniel GaffordDAL | C | 41.1% | 42.7% | +1.6 |
| Naji MarshallDAL | SF | 5.6% | 41.5% | +35.9 |
| Jabari SmithHOU | PF | 22.8% | 37.3% | +14.5 |
| Kyrie IrvingDAL | PG | 0.0% | 37.1% | +37.1 |
| P.J. WashingtonDAL | PF | 21.0% | 34.8% | +13.7 |
| Max ChristieDAL | SG | 2.6% | 27.6% | +24.9 |
| Tari EasonHOU | PF/SF | 3.1% | 23.2% | +20.1 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred VanVleetHOU | PG | 0.0% | 46.4% | +46.4 |
| Kyrie IrvingDAL | PG | 0.0% | 37.1% | +37.1 |
| Naji MarshallDAL | SF | 5.6% | 41.5% | +35.9 |
| Max ChristieDAL | SG | 2.6% | 27.6% | +24.9 |
| Tari EasonHOU | PF/SF | 3.1% | 23.2% | +20.1 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper FlaggDAL | SF | 100.0% | 53.4% | −46.6 |
| Amen ThompsonHOU | SG/PG | 100.0% | 54.0% | −46.0 |
| Kevin DurantHOU | SF | 100.0% | 62.9% | −37.1 |
| Alperen SengunHOU | C | 100.0% | 66.8% | −33.2 |
| Marcus SasserDAL | PG | 0.8% | 0.6% | −0.3 |
Small-field or limited-entry tournament contests · n = 20 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 20 players across 2 small-field or limited-entry tournament contests (1,745 entries). On average our number was 20.2 percentage points away from the field's. On the 15 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 26.4 points. Across the board the field owned these players 3.9 points more than we projected, on average.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small-field or limited-entry tournament | 2 | 20 | 20.2 | 0.78 |
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 2 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| $800 Wed NBA Dribbler (Single Entry) | 952 | $1 |
| $6K Wed NBA Shot ($1K to 1st) | 793 | $9 |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 20 players, our point projections missed by 9.9 fantasy points on average (9.9 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.57 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fred VanVleetHOU | 0.6 | 36.9 | +36.3 |
| Kyrie IrvingDAL | 0.6 | 21.8 | +21.2 |
| Daniel GaffordDAL | 33.3 | 15.1 | −18.2 |
| Jabari SmithHOU | 26.2 | 42.5 | +16.3 |
| Cooper FlaggDAL | 37.2 | 49.0 | +11.8 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| C | 4 | 8.6 | −8.6 |
| PF | 3 | 12.4 | +5.6 |
| PF/SF | 1 | 9.9 | −9.9 |
| PG | 4 | 18.3 | +18.3 |
| SF | 3 | 8.6 | +8.6 |
| SF/SG | 2 | 1.1 | +0.8 |
| SG | 2 | 7.1 | −7.1 |
| SG/PG | 1 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
Before the next lock
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Members get projected ownership and points for every player on every slate we cover, lineups tested in contest simulations, and this grade on each one afterwards.
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