Graded · 2 contests · 28,713 entries
CFB Week 9 FanDuel ownership: Saturday slate
What the field actually played on the CFB Week 9 FanDuel Saturday slate, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
14 games · classic
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- CFB
- Week
- Week 9
- Site
- FanDuel
- Format
- Classic
- Games
- 14
- Teams
- 28 teams
- First lock
- Sat Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET
- Player pool
- 252 players
- Projections
- Captured Sat Oct 31, 11:07 AM ET, before lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 2 large-field tournament contests, 28,713 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb HawkinsOKST | RB | 22.1% | 27.5% | +5.5 |
| Wyatt YoungOKST | WR | 8.8% | 25.5% | +16.7 |
| Bear BachmeierBYU | QB | 14.1% | 25.0% | +10.9 |
| Wayshawn ParkerUTAH | RB | 17.9% | 23.3% | +5.4 |
| Devon DampierUTAH | QB | 23.3% | 22.5% | −0.8 |
| Trinidad ChamblissMISS | QB | 10.0% | 22.4% | +12.5 |
| Deuce AlexanderMISS | WR | 13.2% | 18.9% | +5.7 |
| Bo JacksonOSU | RB | 10.3% | 18.8% | +8.5 |
| Makhi FrazierMISS | RB | 3.4% | 16.1% | +12.8 |
| Byrum BrownAUB | QB | 7.0% | 15.2% | +8.2 |
| Thomas CastellanosTTU not in our pool | QB | - | 14.8% | +14.8 |
| Turbo RichardIND | RB | 6.2% | 14.6% | +8.4 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyatt YoungOKST | WR | 8.8% | 25.5% | +16.7 |
| Thomas CastellanosTTU not in our pool | QB | - | 14.8% | +14.8 |
| Makhi FrazierMISS | RB | 3.4% | 16.1% | +12.8 |
| Trinidad ChamblissMISS | QB | 10.0% | 22.4% | +12.5 |
| Giovanni RichardsonARIZ | WR | 0.1% | 11.1% | +10.9 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick RaphaelSMU | RB | 27.8% | 10.9% | −16.8 |
| Malachi ToneyMIA | WR | 27.4% | 11.1% | −16.4 |
| Jeremiah SmithOSU | WR | 19.3% | 4.7% | −14.6 |
| CJ CarrND | QB | 16.8% | 5.9% | −10.9 |
| Drew MestemakerOKST | QB | 20.3% | 10.8% | −9.5 |
Large-field tournament contests · n = 253 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 253 players across 2 large-field tournament contests (28,713 entries). On average our number was 1.8 percentage points away from the field's. On the 22 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 9.2 points.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large-field tournament | 2 | 253 | 1.8 | 0.72 |
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 3 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| $1K Sat CFB Ravenous Redshirt (150 Entries Max) | 23,952 | $0.05 |
| $80K Sat CFB Wicked Wishbone ($20K to 1st) | 4,761 | $20 |
| $2.5K Sat CFB Big $2 Double Up (Top 625 Win) | 1,436 | $2 |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 251 players, our point projections missed by 4.7 fantasy points on average (4.8 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.67 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb HawkinsOKST | 20.4 | 48.5 | +28.1 |
| Hunter AndrewsUTAH | 2.2 | 25.8 | +23.6 |
| Jamal Polite Jr.ISU | 3.4 | 26.1 | +22.7 |
| Jaylen RaynorISU | 14.3 | 34.2 | +19.9 |
| Aiden FloraISU | 15.4 | 34.1 | +18.7 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 29 | 7.5 | −0.8 |
| RB | 78 | 4.6 | +0.4 |
| WR | 144 | 4.2 | +0.3 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
Members get projected ownership and points for every player on every slate we cover, lineups tested in contest simulations, and this grade on each one afterwards.
Open the DFS builderCFB on FanDuel