Graded · 3 contests · 50,098 entries
CFB Week 7 FanDuel ownership: Saturday slate
What the field actually played on the CFB Week 7 FanDuel Saturday slate, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
14 games · classic
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- CFB
- Week
- Week 7
- Site
- FanDuel
- Format
- Classic
- Games
- 14
- Teams
- 28 teams
- First lock
- Sat Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
- Player pool
- 243 players
- Projections
- Captured Sat Oct 17, 11:07 AM ET, before lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 3 large-field tournament contests, 50,098 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Hawkins Jr.WVU | QB | 14.8% | 40.8% | +26.0 |
| Dilin JonesLSU | RB | 12.2% | 39.9% | +27.8 |
| Caleb HawkinsOKST | RB | 11.8% | 38.7% | +26.9 |
| Conner WeigmanHOU | QB | 12.9% | 33.0% | +20.0 |
| Isaiah Sategna IIIOU | WR | 6.2% | 20.8% | +14.7 |
| Gi'Bran PayneCIN | RB | 5.2% | 18.6% | +13.3 |
| Jamal RobertsMIZZ | RB | 13.0% | 17.2% | +4.2 |
| Bo JacksonOSU | RB | 6.2% | 15.9% | +9.7 |
| Patrick OvermyerHOU | WR | 10.2% | 15.6% | +5.5 |
| Justin BowickOKST | WR | 9.6% | 15.6% | +5.9 |
| Cayden LeeMIZZ | WR | 11.3% | 14.2% | +2.9 |
| Sam LeavittLSU | QB | 12.4% | 13.2% | +0.8 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dilin JonesLSU | RB | 12.2% | 39.9% | +27.8 |
| Caleb HawkinsOKST | RB | 11.8% | 38.7% | +26.9 |
| Michael Hawkins Jr.WVU | QB | 14.8% | 40.8% | +26.0 |
| Conner WeigmanHOU | QB | 12.9% | 33.0% | +20.0 |
| Isaiah Sategna IIIOU | WR | 6.2% | 20.8% | +14.7 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate SheppardDUKE | RB | 12.4% | 2.6% | −9.7 |
| Gunner StocktonUGA | QB | 11.2% | 2.9% | −8.3 |
| Malachi ToneyMIA | WR | 17.9% | 10.5% | −7.4 |
| Darian MensahMIA | QB | 12.9% | 6.1% | −6.7 |
| Jackson HarrisLSU | WR | 8.9% | 3.2% | −5.8 |
Large-field tournament contests · n = 245 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 245 players across 3 large-field tournament contests (50,098 entries). On average our number was 2.0 percentage points away from the field's. On the 20 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 9.9 points.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large-field tournament | 3 | 245 | 2.0 | 0.71 |
| Small-field or limited-entry tournament | 2 | 248 | 1.9 | 0.74 |
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 6 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| $1.2K Sat CFB Redshirt (150 Entries Max) | 28,571 | $0.05 |
| Contest 281093721 | 16,766 | - |
| $80K Sat CFB Wishbone ($20K to 1st) | 4,761 | $20 |
| $3K Sat CFB Big $2 Double Up (Top 750 Win) | 1,724 | $2 |
| Contest 281128597 | 1,190 | - |
| Contest 281093736 | 714 | - |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 243 players, our point projections missed by 4.9 fantasy points on average (5.0 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.67 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cole TabbCIN | 11.7 | 36.9 | +25.2 |
| Michael Hawkins Jr.WVU | 29.3 | 50.3 | +21.0 |
| Bear BachmeierBYU | 17.5 | 36.5 | +19.0 |
| Duce RobinsonFSU | 7.4 | 25.8 | +18.4 |
| Chase SowellPSU | 8.6 | 26.6 | +18.0 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 29 | 7.8 | −0.2 |
| RB | 75 | 4.8 | −0.5 |
| WR | 139 | 4.3 | +0.9 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
Members get projected ownership and points for every player on every slate we cover, lineups tested in contest simulations, and this grade on each one afterwards.
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