Graded · 2 contests · 1,124 entries
CFB Week 4 FanDuel ownership: CLEM @ CAL Single Game
What the field actually played on the CFB Week 4 FanDuel CLEM @ CAL Single Game, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
1 game · showdown
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- CFB
- Week
- Week 4
- Site
- FanDuel
- Format
- Showdown (single game)
- Games
- 1
- Teams
- CAL, CLEM
- First lock
- Fri Sep 25, 10:30 PM ET
- Player pool
- 19 players
- Projections
- Rebuilt after lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 2 small-field or limited-entry tournament contests, 1,124 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
Rebuilt after lock. This slate locked before our archive started saving projections, so these numbers were rebuilt afterwards from the saved salary file. They were not captured before lock, so treat the grade as a weaker test than a pre-lock one.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam MohammedCAL | RB | 49.2% | 78.0% | +28.8 |
| Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleCAL | QB | 58.8% | 63.4% | +4.6 |
| Tait ReynoldsCLEM | QB | 53.0% | 56.7% | +3.7 |
| Gideon DavidsonCLEM | RB | 41.1% | 51.3% | +10.2 |
| Bryant Wesco Jr.CLEM | WR | 39.1% | 49.0% | +9.9 |
| Chase HendricksCAL | WR | 54.5% | 35.7% | −18.8 |
| Ian StrongCAL | WR | 45.7% | 35.6% | −10.1 |
| T.J. MooreCLEM | WR | 51.3% | 34.1% | −17.2 |
| Mason MiniCAL | WR | 11.5% | 25.2% | +13.7 |
| Tyler BrownCLEM | WR | 26.0% | 23.4% | −2.6 |
| Christian BentancurCLEM | WR | 21.4% | 21.4% | −0.0 |
| Olsen Patt-HenryCLEM | WR | 20.8% | 16.8% | −3.9 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam MohammedCAL | RB | 49.2% | 78.0% | +28.8 |
| Mason MiniCAL | WR | 11.5% | 25.2% | +13.7 |
| Taimane PurcellCAL not in our pool | TE | - | 11.3% | +11.3 |
| Gideon DavidsonCLEM | RB | 41.1% | 51.3% | +10.2 |
| Kyion GrayesCAL not in our pool | WR | - | 10.2% | +10.2 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashten EmoryCAL | RB | 29.0% | 4.0% | −25.0 |
| Chase HendricksCAL | WR | 54.5% | 35.7% | −18.8 |
| T.J. MooreCLEM | WR | 51.3% | 34.1% | −17.2 |
| Jordan KingCAL | WR | 18.2% | 4.9% | −13.3 |
| Mark HamperCAL | WR | 13.5% | 1.5% | −12.0 |
Small-field or limited-entry tournament contests · n = 30 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 30 players across 2 small-field or limited-entry tournament contests (1,124 entries). On average our number was 8.2 percentage points away from the field's. On the 17 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 9.5 points. Across the board the field owned these players 0.2 points less than we projected, on average.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small-field or limited-entry tournament | 2 | 30 | 8.2 | 0.86 |
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 2 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| $1K Fri CFB Flea Flicker (2 Entries Max) | 595 | $2 |
| $4K Fri CFB CLEM/CAL Wishbone ($1K to 1st) | 529 | $9 |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 19 players, our point projections missed by 4.9 fantasy points on average (5.1 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.31 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gideon DavidsonCLEM | 9.8 | 28.6 | +18.8 |
| Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleCAL | 18.2 | 2.1 | −16.1 |
| Tait ReynoldsCLEM | 14.6 | 4.1 | −10.5 |
| Adam MohammedCAL | 18.1 | 9.6 | −8.5 |
| Chase HendricksCAL | 14.1 | 5.7 | −8.4 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 2 | 13.3 | −13.3 |
| RB | 5 | 5.9 | +2.0 |
| WR | 12 | 3.1 | −2.5 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
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