Graded · 2 contests · 15,282 entries
CFB Week 4 FanDuel ownership: 3-game slate
What the field actually played on the CFB Week 4 FanDuel 3-game slate, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
3 games · classic
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- CFB
- Week
- Week 4
- Site
- FanDuel
- Format
- Classic
- Games
- 3
- Teams
- CAL, CLEM, IND, NAVY, NW, UAB
- First lock
- Fri Sep 25, 7:00 PM ET
- Player pool
- 52 players
- Projections
- Rebuilt after lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 2 large-field tournament contests, 15,282 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
Rebuilt after lock. This slate locked before our archive started saving projections, so these numbers were rebuilt afterwards from the saved salary file. They were not captured before lock, so treat the grade as a weaker test than a pre-lock one.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam MohammedCAL | RB | 49.4% | 65.0% | +15.6 |
| Jackson GutierrezNAVY | QB | 0.9% | 53.3% | +52.4 |
| Tait ReynoldsCLEM | QB | 27.8% | 52.3% | +24.5 |
| Bryant Wesco Jr.CLEM | WR | 16.6% | 50.5% | +33.9 |
| Ian StrongCAL | WR | 22.5% | 41.3% | +18.8 |
| Nick MarshIND | WR | 31.0% | 40.2% | +9.2 |
| Charlie BeckerIND | WR | 54.4% | 39.6% | −14.8 |
| Josh HooverIND | QB | 57.5% | 33.9% | −23.6 |
| Rod Robinson IIUAB | RB | 18.4% | 32.5% | +14.0 |
| T.J. MooreCLEM | WR | 33.6% | 31.3% | −2.2 |
| Turbo RichardIND | RB | 53.9% | 30.4% | −23.5 |
| Gideon DavidsonCLEM | RB | 14.7% | 29.6% | +14.9 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson GutierrezNAVY | QB | 0.9% | 53.3% | +52.4 |
| Bryant Wesco Jr.CLEM | WR | 16.6% | 50.5% | +33.9 |
| Tait ReynoldsCLEM | QB | 27.8% | 52.3% | +24.5 |
| Ian StrongCAL | WR | 22.5% | 41.3% | +18.8 |
| Adam MohammedCAL | RB | 49.4% | 65.0% | +15.6 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton WoodsonNAVY | QB | 24.5% | 0.3% | −24.2 |
| Josh HooverIND | QB | 57.5% | 33.9% | −23.6 |
| Turbo RichardIND | RB | 53.9% | 30.4% | −23.5 |
| EJ ReidUAB | WR | 27.1% | 9.8% | −17.3 |
| Charlie BeckerIND | WR | 54.4% | 39.6% | −14.8 |
Large-field tournament contests · n = 55 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 55 players across 2 large-field tournament contests (15,282 entries). On average our number was 7.6 percentage points away from the field's. On the 16 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 17.2 points. Across the board the field owned these players 0.1 points less than we projected, on average.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large-field tournament | 2 | 55 | 7.6 | 0.71 |
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 2 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| $2.5K Fri CFB Spring Game (Only $0.25 to Enter) | 11,976 | $0.25 |
| $25K Fri CFB Wishbone ($5K to 1st) | 3,306 | $9 |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 52 players, our point projections missed by 5.5 fantasy points on average (5.6 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.37 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gideon DavidsonCLEM | 9.8 | 28.6 | +18.8 |
| Lee Beebe Jr.IND | 10.6 | 27.0 | +16.4 |
| Braxton WoodsonNAVY | 16.3 | 0.0 | −16.3 |
| Jackson GutierrezNAVY | 5.4 | 21.6 | +16.2 |
| Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleCAL | 18.2 | 2.1 | −16.1 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 7 | 11.2 | −3.4 |
| RB | 18 | 6.1 | +0.2 |
| WR | 27 | 3.7 | −0.8 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
Members get projected ownership and points for every player on every slate we cover, lineups tested in contest simulations, and this grade on each one afterwards.
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