Graded · 2 contests · 695,238 entries
NFL Week 7 FanDuel ownership: Main slate
What the field actually played on the NFL Week 7 FanDuel Main slate, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
10 games · classic
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- NFL
- Week
- Week 7
- Site
- FanDuel
- Format
- Classic
- Games
- 10
- Teams
- 20 teams
- First lock
- Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET
- Player pool
- 145 players
- Projections
- Captured Sun Oct 25, 12:37 PM ET, before lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 2 large-field tournament contests, 695,238 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr GibbsDET | RB | 40.6% | 47.8% | +7.1 |
| Matthew GoldenGB | WR | 10.7% | 40.5% | +29.8 |
| Jalen CokerCAR | WR | 8.0% | 35.8% | +27.9 |
| Tennessee TitansTEN | DST | 16.4% | 34.6% | +18.2 |
| George KittleSF | TE | 13.3% | 33.8% | +20.6 |
| Jordan LoveGB | QB | 7.6% | 31.8% | +24.2 |
| Woody MarksHOU | RB | 8.7% | 28.5% | +19.8 |
| Christian WatsonGB | WR | 27.5% | 28.3% | +0.8 |
| Christian McCaffreySF | RB | 19.6% | 25.4% | +5.8 |
| Braelon AllenNYJ | RB | 16.4% | 22.0% | +5.6 |
| Kyren WilliamsLAR | RB | 16.0% | 20.4% | +4.4 |
| Isaiah LikelyNYG | TE | 11.8% | 19.8% | +8.0 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew GoldenGB | WR | 10.7% | 40.5% | +29.8 |
| Jalen CokerCAR | WR | 8.0% | 35.8% | +27.9 |
| Jordan LoveGB | QB | 7.6% | 31.8% | +24.2 |
| George KittleSF | TE | 13.3% | 33.8% | +20.6 |
| Woody MarksHOU | RB | 8.7% | 28.5% | +19.8 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones Sr.MIN | RB | 34.3% | 10.4% | −23.9 |
| Jonathan TaylorIND | RB | 14.8% | 2.6% | −12.1 |
| Denzel BostonCLE | WR | 16.5% | 6.5% | −9.9 |
| Zay FlowersBAL | WR | 14.5% | 4.8% | −9.7 |
| Michael WilsonARI | WR | 11.7% | 2.8% | −8.9 |
Large-field tournament contests · n = 151 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 151 players across 2 large-field tournament contests (695,238 entries). On average our number was 3.5 percentage points away from the field's. On the 29 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 9.0 points. Across the board the field owned these players 0.1 points less than we projected, on average.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large-field tournament | 2 | 151 | 3.5 | 0.70 |
| High-stakes tournament | 1 | too few contests to grade | ||
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 5 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| $35K Sun NFL Pooch Punt (Guaranteed Overlay!) | 600,000 | $0.05 |
| $1.2M NFL Sunday Million ($250K to 1st, Bonus Back Offer!) | 95,238 | $15 |
| $15K Sun NFL $2 Double Up (Top 3750 Win) | 8,620 | $2 |
| $1.25M Sun NFL Blitz ($250K to 1st) | 5,555 | $250 |
| $20K Sun NFL Big $5 Double Up (Top 2000 Win) | 4,597 | $5 |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 145 players, our point projections missed by 5.4 fantasy points on average (5.4 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.52 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tony PollardTEN | 9.5 | 38.0 | +28.5 |
| Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB | 5.7 | 27.0 | +21.3 |
| Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ | 4.6 | 23.0 | +18.4 |
| Mason TaylorNYJ | 5.0 | 22.7 | +17.7 |
| Tee HigginsCIN | 10.7 | 26.8 | +16.1 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| DST | 20 | 5.2 | −1.6 |
| QB | 20 | 5.4 | +0.8 |
| RB | 30 | 6.4 | +3.0 |
| TE | 25 | 4.5 | +0.5 |
| WR | 50 | 5.3 | +0.5 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
Members get projected ownership and points for every player on every slate we cover, lineups tested in contest simulations, and this grade on each one afterwards.
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