Graded · 2 contests · 205,362 entries
NFL Week 7 FanDuel ownership: NE @ CHI Single Game
What the field actually played on the NFL Week 7 FanDuel NE @ CHI Single Game, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
1 game · showdown
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- NFL
- Week
- Week 7
- Site
- FanDuel
- Format
- Showdown (single game)
- Games
- 1
- Teams
- CHI, NE
- First lock
- Thu Oct 22, 8:15 PM ET
- Player pool
- 28 players
- Projections
- Captured Thu Oct 22, 12:37 PM ET, before lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 2 large-field tournament contests, 205,362 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeNE | QB | 78.6% | 88.4% | +9.8 |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | QB | 82.6% | 87.4% | +4.8 |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI | RB | 70.5% | 70.3% | −0.3 |
| Luther Burden IIICHI | WR | 36.7% | 44.3% | +7.6 |
| DeMario DouglasNE | WR | 31.0% | 43.9% | +12.9 |
| A.J. BrownNE | WR | 32.9% | 43.7% | +10.8 |
| Colston LovelandCHI | TE | 30.5% | 28.8% | −1.7 |
| Hunter HenryNE | TE | 27.6% | 27.9% | +0.3 |
| Rhamondre StevensonNE | RB | 37.8% | 24.8% | −13.1 |
| Roschon JohnsonCHI | RB | 4.6% | 24.3% | +19.7 |
| Cairo SantosCHI | K | 33.4% | 20.8% | −12.6 |
| Rome OdunzeCHI | WR | 24.9% | 19.9% | −5.0 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roschon JohnsonCHI | RB | 4.6% | 24.3% | +19.7 |
| DeMario DouglasNE | WR | 31.0% | 43.9% | +12.9 |
| A.J. BrownNE | WR | 32.9% | 43.7% | +10.8 |
| Drake MayeNE | QB | 78.6% | 88.4% | +9.8 |
| Luther Burden IIICHI | WR | 36.7% | 44.3% | +7.6 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy BorregalesNE | K | 30.1% | 15.7% | −14.4 |
| Rhamondre StevensonNE | RB | 37.8% | 24.8% | −13.1 |
| Cairo SantosCHI | K | 33.4% | 20.8% | −12.6 |
| Chicago BearsCHI | DST | 20.6% | 10.3% | −10.3 |
| New England PatriotsNE | DST | 14.4% | 6.3% | −8.1 |
Large-field tournament contests · n = 28 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 28 players across 2 large-field tournament contests (205,362 entries). On average our number was 5.7 percentage points away from the field's. On the 14 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 8.8 points. Across the board the field owned these players 0.3 points less than we projected, on average.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large-field tournament | 2 | 28 | 5.7 | 0.95 |
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 2 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| $7K Thu NFL Pooch Punt (150 Entries Max) | 167,664 | $0.05 |
| $475K NFL Thursday Night Special ($100K to 1st) | 37,698 | $15 |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 28 players, our point projections missed by 3.5 fantasy points on average (4.6 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.86 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden IIICHI | 10.1 | 24.7 | +14.6 |
| Drake MayeNE | 19.7 | 31.4 | +11.7 |
| Eli RaridonNE | 1.4 | 13.1 | +11.7 |
| Rhamondre StevensonNE | 11.1 | 20.0 | +8.9 |
| Colston LovelandCHI | 8.3 | 16.4 | +8.1 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| DST | 2 | 2.5 | −2.5 |
| K | 2 | 3.7 | +2.9 |
| QB | 2 | 8.5 | +8.5 |
| RB | 5 | 2.5 | +1.5 |
| TE | 7 | 3.8 | +3.8 |
| WR | 10 | 3.0 | +0.2 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
Members get projected ownership and points for every player on every slate we cover, lineups tested in contest simulations, and this grade on each one afterwards.
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