Graded · 4 contests · 964,574 entries
NFL Week 6 FanDuel ownership: Main slate
What the field actually played on the NFL Week 6 FanDuel Main slate, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
10 games · classic
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- NFL
- Week
- Week 6
- Site
- FanDuel
- Format
- Classic
- Games
- 10
- Teams
- 20 teams
- First lock
- Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
- Player pool
- 150 players
- Projections
- Captured Sun Oct 18, 12:07 PM ET, before lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 4 large-field tournament contests, 964,574 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka NacuaLAR | WR | 26.9% | 42.0% | +15.2 |
| Isaiah LikelyNYG | TE | 21.5% | 37.8% | +16.3 |
| Drake LondonATL | WR | 17.9% | 33.2% | +15.3 |
| Kenneth Walker IIIKC | RB | 21.2% | 30.4% | +9.2 |
| Bijan RobinsonATL | RB | 22.1% | 29.8% | +7.6 |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI | RB | 45.9% | 28.0% | −18.0 |
| Matthew StaffordLAR | QB | 9.5% | 26.4% | +16.9 |
| Chuba HubbardCAR | RB | 11.7% | 22.9% | +11.2 |
| Luther Burden IIICHI | WR | 11.7% | 21.8% | +10.2 |
| Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB | DST | 8.9% | 21.3% | +12.5 |
| Rhamondre StevensonNE | RB | 15.6% | 21.1% | +5.5 |
| Davante AdamsLAR | WR | 14.2% | 20.8% | +6.6 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew StaffordLAR | QB | 9.5% | 26.4% | +16.9 |
| Isaiah LikelyNYG | TE | 21.5% | 37.8% | +16.3 |
| Drake LondonATL | WR | 17.9% | 33.2% | +15.3 |
| Puka NacuaLAR | WR | 26.9% | 42.0% | +15.2 |
| Jalen CokerCAR | WR | 6.2% | 19.1% | +12.9 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre SwiftCHI | RB | 45.9% | 28.0% | −18.0 |
| James Cook IIIBUF | RB | 26.9% | 14.9% | −12.1 |
| Jaylen WarrenPIT | RB | 21.5% | 9.8% | −11.7 |
| Los Angeles RamsLAR | DST | 14.6% | 5.9% | −8.7 |
| Garrett WilsonNYJ | WR | 16.1% | 7.5% | −8.6 |
Large-field tournament contests · n = 155 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 155 players across 4 large-field tournament contests (964,574 entries). On average our number was 3.1 percentage points away from the field's. On the 28 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 8.3 points. Across the board the field owned these players 0.1 points less than we projected, on average.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large-field tournament | 4 | 155 | 3.1 | 0.79 |
| Small-field or limited-entry tournament | 7 | 155 | 3.8 | 0.74 |
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 12 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| $35K Sun NFL Pooch Punt (Guaranteed Overlay!) | 571,917 | $0.05 |
| Contest 281053768 | 215,568 | - |
| $1.3M NFL Sunday Million ($250K to 1st, Bonus Back Offer!) | 93,756 | $15 |
| Contest 281053772 | 83,333 | - |
| $16K Sun NFL $2 Double Up (Top 4000 Win) | 9,195 | $2 |
| Contest 281053773 | 7,142 | - |
| Contest 281053782 | 5,952 | - |
| Contest 281053776 | 4,761 | - |
| Contest 281053778 | 3,968 | - |
| Contest 281053788 | 2,976 | - |
| Contest 281057818 | 1,636 | - |
| Contest 281076522 | 782 | - |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 150 players, our point projections missed by 4.6 fantasy points on average (4.5 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.56 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee TitansTEN | 4.7 | 21.0 | +16.3 |
| Tre TuckerLV | 8.3 | 24.2 | +15.9 |
| Germie BernardPIT | 5.0 | 20.2 | +15.2 |
| Tommy TrembleCAR | 4.1 | 18.6 | +14.5 |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL | 6.8 | 20.5 | +13.7 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| DST | 20 | 4.0 | +0.5 |
| QB | 20 | 3.9 | −0.6 |
| RB | 34 | 4.7 | −0.9 |
| TE | 25 | 5.4 | +0.8 |
| WR | 51 | 4.6 | +0.7 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
Members get projected ownership and points for every player on every slate we cover, lineups tested in contest simulations, and this grade on each one afterwards.
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