Graded · 4 contests · 361,323 entries
NFL Week 6 FanDuel ownership: SEA @ DEN Single Game
What the field actually played on the NFL Week 6 FanDuel SEA @ DEN Single Game, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
1 game · showdown
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- NFL
- Week
- Week 6
- Site
- FanDuel
- Format
- Showdown (single game)
- Games
- 1
- Teams
- DEN, SEA
- First lock
- Thu Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET
- Player pool
- 29 players
- Projections
- Captured Thu Oct 15, 7:37 PM ET, before lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 4 large-field tournament contests, 361,323 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | WR | 70.3% | 81.0% | +10.7 |
| Sam DarnoldSEA | QB | 67.9% | 70.9% | +3.0 |
| Bo NixDEN | QB | 59.3% | 60.8% | +1.5 |
| Emanuel WilsonSEA | RB | 42.0% | 56.6% | +14.6 |
| Jason MyersSEA | K | 38.9% | 44.8% | +5.9 |
| Wil LutzDEN | K | 37.9% | 36.0% | −1.9 |
| AJ BarnerSEA | TE | 26.2% | 33.5% | +7.3 |
| Seattle SeahawksSEA | DST | 34.6% | 26.4% | −8.2 |
| Jaylen WaddleDEN | WR | 36.9% | 24.1% | −12.8 |
| J.K. DobbinsDEN | RB | 35.1% | 23.5% | −11.6 |
| RJ HarveyDEN | RB | 18.4% | 21.9% | +3.5 |
| Denver BroncosDEN | DST | 28.6% | 18.9% | −9.7 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel WilsonSEA | RB | 42.0% | 56.6% | +14.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | WR | 70.3% | 81.0% | +10.7 |
| Troy FranklinDEN | WR | 5.0% | 13.1% | +8.2 |
| AJ BarnerSEA | TE | 26.2% | 33.5% | +7.3 |
| Jason MyersSEA | K | 38.9% | 44.8% | +5.9 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen WaddleDEN | WR | 36.9% | 24.1% | −12.8 |
| J.K. DobbinsDEN | RB | 35.1% | 23.5% | −11.6 |
| Denver BroncosDEN | DST | 28.6% | 18.9% | −9.7 |
| Courtland SuttonDEN | WR | 23.6% | 14.3% | −9.3 |
| Seattle SeahawksSEA | DST | 34.6% | 26.4% | −8.2 |
Large-field tournament contests · n = 29 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 29 players across 4 large-field tournament contests (361,323 entries). On average our number was 4.9 percentage points away from the field's. On the 16 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 7.4 points. Across the board the field owned these players 0.1 points less than we projected, on average.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large-field tournament | 4 | 29 | 4.9 | 0.96 |
| Small-field or limited-entry tournament | 6 | 29 | 5.9 | 0.93 |
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 10 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| $8K Thu NFL Pooch Punt (150 Entries Max) | 191,616 | $0.05 |
| Contest 281052570 | 91,488 | - |
| $500K NFL Thursday Night Special ($100K to 1st) | 39,682 | $15 |
| Contest 281052571 | 38,537 | - |
| Contest 281052576 | 2,976 | - |
| Contest 281053126 | 1,904 | - |
| Contest 281052578 | 1,785 | - |
| Contest 281077340 | 854 | - |
| Contest 281077341 | 695 | - |
| Contest 281077395 | 21 | - |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 29 players, our point projections missed by 2.7 fantasy points on average (3.5 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.74 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bo NixDEN | 14.1 | 4.5 | −9.6 |
| RJ HarveyDEN | 5.3 | 13.1 | +7.8 |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | 16.5 | 22.4 | +5.9 |
| Denver BroncosDEN | 6.5 | 12.0 | +5.5 |
| Emanuel WilsonSEA | 10.4 | 5.2 | −5.2 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| DST | 2 | 4.9 | +0.6 |
| K | 2 | 0.4 | −0.2 |
| QB | 2 | 5.7 | −5.7 |
| RB | 6 | 3.5 | +1.7 |
| TE | 8 | 0.9 | −0.9 |
| WR | 9 | 3.0 | +0.8 |
Before the next lock
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