Graded · 2 contests · 135,490 entries
NBA Oct 23 FanDuel ownership: Friday slate
What the field actually played on the NBA Fri Oct 23 FanDuel Friday slate, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
11 games · classic
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- NBA
- Site
- FanDuel
- Format
- Classic
- Games
- 11
- Teams
- 22 teams
- First lock
- Fri Oct 23, 7:00 PM ET
- Player pool
- 232 players
- Projections
- Captured Fri Oct 23, 6:37 PM ET, before lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 2 large-field tournament contests, 135,490 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naz ReidCHA | PF/C | 13.3% | 41.2% | +27.9 |
| Ty JeromeMEM | SG | 9.9% | 40.2% | +30.2 |
| Cameron BoozerMEM | PF | 3.1% | 33.1% | +30.0 |
| Ivica ZubacIND | C | 7.9% | 27.6% | +19.6 |
| Tyrese HaliburtonIND | PG | 7.7% | 26.7% | +19.0 |
| Yaxel LendeborgGS | SF | 1.7% | 25.8% | +24.1 |
| Darryn PetersonUTAH | SG | 0.9% | 24.2% | +23.3 |
| Ausar ThompsonDET | SF/SG | 13.3% | 20.9% | +7.6 |
| Rudy GobertMIN | C | 6.0% | 20.2% | +14.3 |
| Brandon MillerCHA | SF | 7.3% | 19.2% | +11.9 |
| Dennis SchroderCHA | PG | 5.5% | 18.1% | +12.6 |
| Domantas SabonisSAC | C | 8.5% | 17.6% | +9.1 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty JeromeMEM | SG | 9.9% | 40.2% | +30.2 |
| Cameron BoozerMEM | PF | 3.1% | 33.1% | +30.0 |
| Naz ReidCHA | PF/C | 13.3% | 41.2% | +27.9 |
| Yaxel LendeborgGS | SF | 1.7% | 25.8% | +24.1 |
| Darryn PetersonUTAH | SG | 0.9% | 24.2% | +23.3 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni AvdijaPOR | PF/SF | 14.7% | 3.8% | −10.9 |
| Kawhi LeonardTOR | SF | 13.1% | 4.5% | −8.6 |
| Ja MorantPOR | PG/SG | 13.8% | 5.5% | −8.3 |
| Anthony DavisWSH | PF/C | 15.3% | 7.4% | −7.9 |
| Trey MurphyNO | SG/SF | 8.1% | 0.4% | −7.7 |
Large-field tournament contests · n = 232 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 232 players across 2 large-field tournament contests (135,490 entries). On average our number was 2.8 percentage points away from the field's. On the 28 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 10.9 points. Across the board the field owned these players 0.1 points less than we projected, on average.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large-field tournament | 2 | 232 | 2.8 | 0.55 |
| High-stakes tournament | 1 | too few contests to grade | ||
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 4 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| $4K Fri NBA Piggy Bank Shot (150 Entries Max) | 95,808 | $0.05 |
| $200K Fri NBA Shot ($50K to 1st) | 39,682 | $6 |
| $3.6K Fri NBA Big $2 Double Up (Top 900 Win) | 2,068 | $2 |
| $300K Fri NBA Monster ($100K to 1st) | 600 | $555 |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 232 players, our point projections missed by 7.7 fantasy points on average (7.9 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.75 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel LendeborgGS | 19.7 | 45.6 | +25.9 |
| Desmond BaneORL | 33.2 | 7.4 | −25.8 |
| Yves MissiNO | 35.1 | 10.2 | −24.9 |
| Cameron BoozerMEM | 25.1 | 49.6 | +24.5 |
| Walker KesslerLAL | 37.9 | 62.1 | +24.2 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| C | 41 | 9.0 | −1.9 |
| C/PF | 2 | 3.3 | −3.3 |
| PF | 27 | 8.1 | −1.2 |
| PF/C | 7 | 9.9 | −2.2 |
| PF/SF | 7 | 10.1 | +4.9 |
| PG | 40 | 7.3 | −2.0 |
| PG/SG | 3 | 10.0 | −10.0 |
| SF | 40 | 6.5 | −0.7 |
| SF/PF | 4 | 6.3 | +6.3 |
| SF/SG | 7 | 11.5 | −1.4 |
| SG | 39 | 6.3 | −1.8 |
| SG/PG | 8 | 6.1 | −0.4 |
| SG/SF | 7 | 8.9 | −2.9 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
Members get projected ownership and points for every player on every slate we cover, lineups tested in contest simulations, and this grade on each one afterwards.
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