Graded · 4 contests · 237,354 entries
NBA Oct 21 FanDuel ownership: Wednesday slate
What the field actually played on the NBA Wed Oct 21 FanDuel Wednesday slate, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
11 games · classic
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- NBA
- Site
- FanDuel
- Format
- Classic
- Games
- 11
- Teams
- 22 teams
- First lock
- Wed Oct 21, 7:00 PM ET
- Player pool
- 217 players
- Projections
- Captured Wed Oct 21, 6:07 PM ET, before lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 4 large-field tournament contests, 237,354 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah JacksonLAC | PF/C | 14.8% | 39.0% | +24.1 |
| Ivica ZubacIND | C | 5.7% | 38.2% | +32.5 |
| Darius GarlandLAC | PG | 7.9% | 32.2% | +24.4 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg not in our pool | - | 31.7% | +31.7 | |
| Trae YoungWSH | PG | 10.4% | 31.1% | +20.7 |
| Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA | PF | 22.7% | 30.2% | +7.5 |
| Luka DoncicLAL | PG | 18.4% | 29.9% | +11.5 |
| Cameron Boozer not in our pool | - | 29.1% | +29.1 | |
| Rui HachimuraLAC | SF/PF | 3.0% | 29.1% | +26.1 |
| Ty JeromeMEM | SG | 7.2% | 24.8% | +17.6 |
| Franz WagnerORL | SF | 11.4% | 24.4% | +13.0 |
| Naz ReidCHA | PF/C | 9.0% | 20.5% | +11.5 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivica ZubacIND | C | 5.7% | 38.2% | +32.5 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg not in our pool | - | 31.7% | +31.7 | |
| Cameron Boozer not in our pool | - | 29.1% | +29.1 | |
| Rui HachimuraLAC | SF/PF | 3.0% | 29.1% | +26.1 |
| Darius GarlandLAC | PG | 7.9% | 32.2% | +24.4 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja MorantPOR | PG/SG | 19.9% | 3.8% | −16.1 |
| Alex SarrWSH | C/PF | 14.7% | 2.1% | −12.5 |
| Anthony DavisWSH | PF/C | 19.1% | 8.2% | −10.9 |
| Kawhi LeonardTOR | SF | 17.6% | 8.3% | −9.3 |
| CJ McCollumATL | SG/PG | 12.7% | 4.3% | −8.4 |
Large-field tournament contests · n = 227 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 227 players across 4 large-field tournament contests (237,354 entries). On average our number was 3.3 percentage points away from the field's. On the 25 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 13.3 points.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large-field tournament | 4 | 227 | 3.3 | 0.52 |
| Small-field or limited-entry tournament | 4 | 227 | 3.0 | 0.54 |
| High-stakes tournament | 1 | too few contests to grade | ||
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 10 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| $5K Wed NBA Piggy Bank Shot (150 Entries Max) | 119,760 | $0.05 |
| Contest 281187909 | 69,542 | - |
| $333K Wed NBA Clutch Shot ($100K to 1st) | 24,243 | $15 |
| Contest 281188144 | 23,809 | - |
| Contest 281187910 | 3,429 | - |
| Contest 281187911 | 2,380 | - |
| $4K Wed NBA Big $2 Double Up (Top 1000 Win) | 2,298 | $2 |
| $800K Wed NBA Epic Monster ($200K to 1st) | 1,600 | $555 |
| Contest 281187918 | 1,255 | - |
| Contest 281187933 | 1,181 | - |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 217 players, our point projections missed by 7.9 fantasy points on average (8.0 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.74 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ty JeromeMEM | 32.6 | 64.4 | +31.8 |
| Anthony EdwardsMIN | 38.1 | 66.5 | +28.4 |
| Yves MissiNO | 26.5 | 51.3 | +24.8 |
| Josh GiddeyCHI | 38.6 | 14.4 | −24.2 |
| De'Anthony MeltonGS | 29.5 | 6.4 | −23.1 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| C | 42 | 8.5 | −3.9 |
| C/PF | 2 | 12.3 | −12.3 |
| PF | 33 | 8.4 | +1.4 |
| PF/C | 6 | 10.9 | +4.6 |
| PF/SF | 4 | 9.4 | −2.8 |
| PG | 32 | 8.1 | −0.1 |
| PG/SG | 3 | 9.8 | −9.7 |
| SF | 37 | 6.4 | −0.4 |
| SF/PF | 2 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| SF/SG | 5 | 6.4 | +6.3 |
| SG | 38 | 7.9 | +2.5 |
| SG/PG | 6 | 8.2 | −4.8 |
| SG/SF | 7 | 5.5 | −2.0 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
Members get projected ownership and points for every player on every slate we cover, lineups tested in contest simulations, and this grade on each one afterwards.
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