Graded · 2 contests · 265,161 entries
NBA Oct 20 FanDuel ownership: Tuesday slate
What the field actually played on the NBA Tue Oct 20 FanDuel Tuesday slate, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
2 games · classic
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- NBA
- Site
- FanDuel
- Format
- Classic
- Games
- 2
- Teams
- NY, OKC, PHI, SA
- First lock
- Tue Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET
- Player pool
- 49 players
- Projections
- Captured Tue Oct 20, 6:37 PM ET, before lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 2 large-field tournament contests, 265,161 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OG AnunobyNY | PF/SF/G/F/C | 34.3% | 57.5% | +23.2 |
| Karl-Anthony TownsNY | C/F | 33.0% | 56.8% | +23.8 |
| Dylan HarperSA | SG/PG/G/F | 21.8% | 56.6% | +34.7 |
| Jalen BrunsonNY | PG/G/F | 45.2% | 55.7% | +10.4 |
| Victor WembanyamaSA | C/F | 34.6% | 52.6% | +18.0 |
| Isaiah HartensteinOKC | C/F | 14.9% | 48.0% | +33.1 |
| Josh HartNY | SF/PF/G/F/C | 37.5% | 46.0% | +8.5 |
| Joel EmbiidPHI | C/F | 62.8% | 39.6% | −23.2 |
| Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC | PG/G/F | 47.4% | 39.4% | −8.0 |
| Jalen WilliamsOKC | SF/SG/G/F/C | 33.9% | 37.6% | +3.7 |
| Jaylen BrownPHI | SF/G/F/C | 55.3% | 36.7% | −18.6 |
| Stephon CastleSA | SG/PG/G/F | 41.4% | 34.2% | −7.2 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan HarperSA | SG/PG/G/F | 21.8% | 56.6% | +34.7 |
| Isaiah HartensteinOKC | C/F | 14.9% | 48.0% | +33.1 |
| Karl-Anthony TownsNY | C/F | 33.0% | 56.8% | +23.8 |
| OG AnunobyNY | PF/SF/G/F/C | 34.3% | 57.5% | +23.2 |
| Cason WallaceOKC | SG/G/F | 12.1% | 32.6% | +20.5 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel EmbiidPHI | C/F | 62.8% | 39.6% | −23.2 |
| Tyrese MaxeyPHI | PG/G/F | 51.7% | 29.1% | −22.6 |
| VJ EdgecombePHI | SG/G/F | 42.9% | 22.2% | −20.7 |
| Chet HolmgrenOKC | PF/C/G/F | 40.7% | 20.7% | −20.0 |
| Jaylen BrownPHI | SF/G/F/C | 55.3% | 36.7% | −18.6 |
Large-field tournament contests · n = 53 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 53 players across 2 large-field tournament contests (265,161 entries). On average our number was 7.8 percentage points away from the field's. On the 23 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 15.1 points. Across the board the field owned these players 0.4 points less than we projected, on average.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large-field tournament | 2 | 53 | 7.8 | 0.80 |
| Small-field or limited-entry tournament | 1 | too few contests to grade | ||
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 4 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| $15K Tue NBA Piggy Bank Shot (Guaranteed Overlay!) | 226,973 | $0.05 |
| $600K Tue NBA Opening Night Shot ($150K to 1st) | 38,188 | $15 |
| Contest 281019330 | 1,218 | - |
| $1.5K Tue NBA Big $2 Double Up (Top 375 Win) | 862 | $2 |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 49 players, our point projections missed by 6.8 fantasy points on average (7.0 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.85 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andre DrummondNY | 10.6 | 43.8 | +33.2 |
| Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC | 44.8 | 61.2 | +16.4 |
| Tyrese MaxeyPHI | 40.8 | 56.3 | +15.5 |
| VJ EdgecombePHI | 32.6 | 17.3 | −15.3 |
| Rayan RupertPHI | 15.2 | 0.0 | −15.2 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| C/F | 8 | 7.5 | +1.6 |
| PF/C/G/F | 1 | 4.4 | +4.4 |
| PF/G/F/C | 3 | 4.2 | −0.6 |
| PF/SF/G/F/C | 1 | 8.6 | −8.6 |
| PG/G/F | 9 | 8.7 | +1.6 |
| SF/G/F/C | 9 | 7.0 | −4.8 |
| SF/PF/G/F/C | 2 | 2.0 | +0.1 |
| SF/SG/G/F/C | 2 | 7.3 | −7.3 |
| SG/G/F | 12 | 6.6 | −2.9 |
| SG/PG/G/F | 2 | 5.5 | +1.9 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
Members get projected ownership and points for every player on every slate we cover, lineups tested in contest simulations, and this grade on each one afterwards.
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