Graded · 2 contests · 60,797 entries
CFB Week 6 DraftKings ownership: Main slate
What the field actually played on the CFB Week 6 DraftKings Main slate, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
12 games · classic
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- CFB
- Week
- Week 6
- Site
- DraftKings
- Format
- Classic
- Games
- 12
- Teams
- 24 teams
- First lock
- Sat Oct 10, 12:00 PM ET
- Player pool
- 213 players
- Projections
- Rebuilt after lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 2 large-field tournament contests, 60,797 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
Rebuilt after lock. This slate locked before our archive started saving projections, so these numbers were rebuilt afterwards from the saved salary file. They were not captured before lock, so treat the grade as a weaker test than a pre-lock one.
Some field numbers read low. Part of the real ownership here comes from a results source that counts each player in one roster slot only, so a player the field used in more than one slot can show less ownership than he really had.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah MizellARIZ | WR | 1.2% | 46.0% | +44.8 |
| Caleb HawkinsOKST | RB | 25.6% | 42.9% | +17.3 |
| Jamal RobertsMIZZ | RB | 27.1% | 28.8% | +1.7 |
| Dylan RaiolaORE | QB | 0.0% | 28.7% | +28.7 |
| Michael Hawkins Jr.WVU | QB | 18.3% | 27.5% | +9.2 |
| Junior SherrillVAND | WR | 22.2% | 25.7% | +3.5 |
| Jamari JohnsonORE | WR | 2.0% | 24.3% | +22.3 |
| Ja'Kyrian TurnerPITT | RB | 1.6% | 24.2% | +22.6 |
| Nate SheppardDUKE | RB | 11.1% | 22.9% | +11.9 |
| Kwazi GilmerNEB | WR | 15.0% | 20.7% | +5.7 |
| Jadan BaughUF | RB | 21.9% | 20.3% | −1.6 |
| LaNorris SellersSCAR | QB | 17.6% | 16.9% | −0.7 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah MizellARIZ | WR | 1.2% | 46.0% | +44.8 |
| Dylan RaiolaORE | QB | 0.0% | 28.7% | +28.7 |
| Ja'Kyrian TurnerPITT | RB | 1.6% | 24.2% | +22.6 |
| Jamari JohnsonORE | WR | 2.0% | 24.3% | +22.3 |
| Caleb HawkinsOKST | RB | 25.6% | 42.9% | +17.3 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre SpiveyARIZ | WR | 29.7% | 0.0% | −29.7 |
| Joe JacksonKSU | RB | 28.0% | 3.2% | −24.8 |
| Alberto MendozaGT | QB | 11.5% | 0.9% | −10.6 |
| Wayne KnightUCLA | RB | 12.0% | 3.3% | −8.7 |
| Raleek BrownTEX | RB | 8.6% | 0.5% | −8.0 |
Large-field tournament contests · n = 214 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 214 players across 2 large-field tournament contests (60,797 entries). On average our number was 3.0 percentage points away from the field's. On the 26 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 10.6 points.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large-field tournament | 2 | 214 | 3.0 | 0.54 |
| High-stakes tournament | 1 | too few contests to grade | ||
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 5 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| CFB $20K mini-MAX [150 Max Entry] | 47,562 | $0.50 |
| CFB $225K Saturday Kickoff [$50K to 1st] | 13,235 | $20 |
| CFB $2 Double Up | 862 | $2 |
| CFB $300K Mid-Season Main Event [$100K to 1st] | 600 | $555 |
| CFB Single Entry $10 Double Up | 344 | $10 |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 213 players, our point projections missed by 5.7 fantasy points on average (5.9 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.55 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaziun PattersonMSU | 5.9 | 38.9 | +33.0 |
| Isaiah MizellARIZ | 6.4 | 39.3 | +32.9 |
| Patrick OvermyerUH | 13.4 | 40.4 | +27.0 |
| Nick MarshIU | 15.1 | 39.7 | +24.6 |
| Trelain MaddoxGT | 5.1 | 28.9 | +23.8 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 24 | 5.6 | −0.8 |
| RB | 59 | 6.2 | −0.3 |
| WR | 130 | 5.4 | +1.0 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
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