CBB 2026-27
The toughest non-conference schedules in college basketball
We ran all 2,689 non-conference games through our model. Here is who scheduled tough, who did not, and who is on the road all November.
Every November the same argument starts: who actually scheduled tough, and who loaded up on home games against teams they will beat by 30? We ran every non-conference game on the board through our college basketball model to settle it with numbers.
How we measured it
For each team we took every scheduled non-conference opponent and looked up that opponent's rating in our model: how many points better or worse than an average Division I team it rates on a neutral floor. Then we adjusted for where the game is played. A road game adds 2.1 points of difficulty, a home game takes 2.1 off, and a neutral site counts straight. The number in the tables is the average of those adjusted opponent ratings. Higher means harder.
Two things to know. These are preseason ratings, built from rosters, returning minutes and last season, because no games have been played yet. And 0 early-season tournament games still have an opponent to be decided, so they are not counted until the brackets fill in.
The 10 toughest non-conference schedules among top teams
This list is limited to teams in our preseason top 75, the teams with a real shot at an at-large bid. That is where schedule strength matters most, since it is what the selection committee weighs in March.
| Team | Conf | Our rank | Games | vs top 25 | vs top 50 | Avg opponent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | SEC | 21 | 12 | 3 | 5 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Purdue | Big Ten | 25 | 12 | 3 | 4 | +6.4 |
| 3 | Duke | ACC | 1 | 14 | 6 | 7 | +5.9 |
| 4 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 13 | 12 | 4 | 4 | +5.4 |
| 5 | Kansas | Big 12 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 5 | +5.3 |
| 6 | Illinois | Big Ten | 4 | 12 | 3 | 5 | +5.2 |
| 7 | UConn | Big East | 17 | 12 | 6 | 7 | +4.8 |
| 8 | Louisville | ACC | 11 | 11 | 4 | 5 | +4.8 |
| 9 | Gonzaga | Pac-12 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 4 | +4.2 |
| 10 | North Carolina | ACC | 32 | 13 | 3 | 4 | +4.1 |
1. Alabamaavg opponent +7.3
SEC · our preseason #21 · 12 non-conference games
No easy runway here. Three neutral-floor games against top-25 teams plus a trip to Miami, and even the home openers are against decent mid-majors. The weakest opponent on the whole slate, Samford, is still our #230.
- vs Baylor (our #43, neutral)
- at Miami (our #23, road)
- vs Houston (our #2, neutral)
- vs St. John's (our #12, neutral)
- vs Iowa (our #35, neutral)
2. Purdueavg opponent +6.4
Big Ten · our preseason #25 · 12 non-conference games
Gonzaga on a neutral floor, a trip to Iowa State, and Tennessee in West Lafayette. Purdue rarely gets an easy week in Big Ten play, and this non-conference slate will have them ready for it.
- vs Gonzaga (our #10, neutral)
- vs Oklahoma (our #33, neutral)
- at Iowa State (our #6, road)
- vs Tennessee (our #8, home)
3. Dukeavg opponent +5.9
ACC · our preseason #1 · 14 non-conference games
Six top-25 opponents, tied with UConn for the most of any power-conference team. Michigan State, Illinois, UConn, Texas Tech and Gonzaga, plus a road trip to Florida. Our model has Duke as the best team in the country and the schedule will test that early.
- vs Michigan State (our #13, neutral)
- vs Illinois (our #4, home)
- vs UConn (our #17, neutral)
- at Florida (our #5, road)
- vs Georgia (our #40, neutral)
- vs Texas Tech (our #9, neutral)
- vs Gonzaga (our #10, neutral)
4. Michigan Stateavg opponent +5.4
Big Ten · our preseason #13 · 12 non-conference games
Duke, Gonzaga and Arkansas on neutral floors and a trip to Tennessee. Four top-25 opponents, and all four away from East Lansing.
- vs Duke (our #1, neutral)
- at Tennessee (our #8, road)
- vs Arkansas (our #16, neutral)
- vs Gonzaga (our #10, neutral)
5. Kansasavg opponent +5.3
Big 12 · our preseason #14 · 12 non-conference games
Two top-25 games (Kentucky and a trip to UConn) and five against our top 50. The rest of the slate is softer, which is why Kansas lands fifth instead of higher.
- vs Kentucky (our #24, neutral)
- vs Villanova (our #30, home)
- vs Missouri (our #46, neutral)
- at UConn (our #17, road)
- vs Ohio State (our #29, neutral)
The road warriors: hardest schedules in the country
Sort every Division I team instead of just the contenders and the top of the list looks different. The hardest non-conference schedules belong to programs that sell road games to power teams. They travel almost every week in November and December, collect a check, and come back to conference play battle tested.
| Team | Conf | Games | On the road | vs top 25 | Avg opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland | Horizon | 12 | 11 | 6 | +13.1 |
| Mississippi Valley State | SWAC | 14 | 14 | 4 | +12.7 |
| Jackson State | SWAC | 14 | 14 | 2 | +9.4 |
| Alcorn State | SWAC | 14 | 12 | 3 | +7.3 |
Oakland is the extreme case: 12 non-conference games, 11 of them away from home, and 6 against our top 25. That is the hardest non-conference schedule in Division I by our numbers.
The softest schedules among top-75 teams
On the other end, a few teams we rate highly will not see much resistance before conference play. That does not make them worse teams, but it does mean their early records will tell you less.
| Team | Conf | Our rank | vs top 50 | Avg opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point | Big South | 50 | 1 | −6.5 |
| Wichita State | American | 64 | 2 | −4.5 |
| VCU | A-10 | 47 | 1 | −3.8 |
| Iowa State | Big 12 | 6 | 2 | −3.1 |
| Georgetown | Big East | 61 | 3 | −2.9 |
Iowa State stands out: our #6 team overall, with 2 non-conference games against our top 50.
What would change this list. Ratings move once real games are played, so a team that looks strong in October can be a soft opponent by December, and the other way round. The tournament brackets with opponents still to be decided will also add games. We will rerun this once the season is a few weeks old.
CBB team pagesCFB hardest remaining schedulesNFL strength of schedule
Want the numbers behind this every week? Members get our lines boards, props vs the market, the DFS optimizer and contest sims, with the misses shown next to the hits.
Become a member