NFL 2026
NFL strength of schedule: the hardest roads left and our playoff odds
Every remaining game rated by our model, plus playoff odds for all 32 teams from 20,000 simulated seasons.
Strength of schedule numbers you see in August are built on last season's records, which tells you very little by November. We rebuilt it from our own team ratings, using every game played through Week 7, and simulated the rest of the season 20,000 times to get playoff odds for all 32 teams.
How we measured it
Each team has a rating in our NFL model: how many points better or worse than an average NFL team it is, offense and defense combined. For every remaining game we took the opponent's rating and adjusted for home field (0.85 points). The schedule number is the average. It is in points per game: +1.69 means Chicago's average remaining opponent is about 1.7 points better than a league-average team.
The 10 hardest remaining schedules
| Team | Record | Left | Avg opponent | Proj. wins | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bears | 5-2 | 10 | +1.69 | 10.2 | 70% |
| 2 | Packers | 5-3 | 9 | +1.27 | 9.3 | 47% |
| 3 | Dolphins | 1-5 | 11 | +1.12 | 4.8 | <1% |
| 4 | Rams | 3-4 | 10 | +0.83 | 8.6 | 30% |
| 5 | Titans | 1-6 | 10 | +0.82 | 4.0 | <1% |
| 6 | Panthers | 3-4 | 10 | +0.73 | 7.0 | 22% |
| 7 | Giants | 4-2-1 | 10 | +0.62 | 8.9 | 60% |
| 8 | Chargers | 0-6 | 11 | +0.55 | 4.4 | <1% |
| 9 | Ravens | 4-3 | 10 | +0.54 | 9.2 | 46% |
| 10 | Vikings | 6-0 | 11 | +0.46 | 12.4 | 96% |
Proj. wins: average final win total across the simulations, current record included.
The NFC North is the story. Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota and Detroit all sit in the top 12, partly because they still have to play each other. Chicago's remaining slate is at SEA, TB, NO, at DET, JAX, at MIA, at BUF, GB, DET, at MIN. Despite that, our model gives the Bears a 70% playoff chance, because our model rates them among the better teams in the league. Green Bay has it harder in practice: second hardest schedule and a weaker rating, which leaves the Packers close to a coin flip at 47%.
Minnesota is the exception to everything. At 6-0 with the 10th hardest schedule left, the Vikings still make the playoffs in 96% of our simulations and win the division in 68%.
The easiest remaining schedules
| Team | Record | Left | Avg opponent | Proj. wins | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Saints | 2-5 | 10 | −0.64 | 6.3 | 12% |
| 29 | Texans | 2-5 | 10 | −0.90 | 7.7 | 16% |
| 30 | Jaguars | 4-2 | 11 | −1.10 | 11.2 | 94% |
| 31 | Broncos | 5-2 | 10 | −1.20 | 10.9 | 85% |
| 32 | Bengals | 4-2 | 11 | −1.76 | 10.7 | 80% |
Jacksonville is the team to watch here. A 4-2 start, one of the higher ratings in the league and the third easiest road left add up to a 91% chance of winning the AFC South. Cincinnati has the easiest remaining slate of anyone and gets in 80% of the time.
Playoff outlook: odds for every team
Seven teams per conference make it: four division winners and three wild cards, with the top seed getting the only bye.
AFC
| Team | Division | Record | Proj. wins | Playoffs | Division | No. 1 seed | Schedule rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | South | 4-2 | 11.2 | 94% | 91% | 17% | 30 |
| Bills | East | 5-1 | 11.7 | 93% | 78% | 29% | 16 |
| Chiefs | West | 5-1 | 11.2 | 88% | 55% | 18% | 13 |
| Broncos | West | 5-2 | 10.9 | 85% | 44% | 12% | 31 |
| Bengals | North | 4-2 | 10.7 | 80% | 45% | 11% | 32 |
| Steelers | North | 5-2 | 10.1 | 69% | 29% | 6% | 19 |
| Patriots | East | 4-3 | 9.9 | 66% | 22% | 4% | 17 |
| Browns | North | 5-2 | 9.3 | 48% | 14% | 2% | 25 |
| Ravens | North | 4-3 | 9.2 | 46% | 12% | 2% | 9 |
| Texans | South | 2-5 | 7.7 | 16% | 6% | <1% | 29 |
| Colts | South | 2-5 | 6.8 | 7% | 3% | 0% | 27 |
| Raiders | West | 3-4 | 7.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 24 |
| Jets | East | 2-5 | 5.8 | 2% | <1% | 0% | 11 |
| Dolphins | East | 1-5 | 4.8 | <1% | <1% | 0% | 3 |
| Titans | South | 1-6 | 4.0 | <1% | <1% | 0% | 5 |
| Chargers | West | 0-6 | 4.4 | <1% | 0% | 0% | 8 |
NFC
| Team | Division | Record | Proj. wins | Playoffs | Division | No. 1 seed | Schedule rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | North | 6-0 | 12.4 | 96% | 68% | 44% | 10 |
| 49ers | West | 6-1 | 12.0 | 95% | 69% | 32% | 14 |
| Seahawks | West | 4-3 | 10.7 | 81% | 27% | 8% | 22 |
| Bears | North | 5-2 | 10.2 | 70% | 13% | 6% | 1 |
| Lions | North | 4-2 | 10.1 | 68% | 14% | 6% | 12 |
| Giants | East | 4-2-1 | 8.9 | 60% | 57% | 1% | 7 |
| Packers | North | 5-3 | 9.3 | 47% | 5% | 2% | 2 |
| Falcons | South | 3-4 | 7.6 | 36% | 35% | <1% | 15 |
| Buccaneers | South | 2-5 | 7.4 | 33% | 32% | 0% | 26 |
| Cowboys | East | 3-4 | 7.9 | 30% | 26% | <1% | 21 |
| Rams | West | 3-4 | 8.6 | 30% | 4% | 0% | 4 |
| Panthers | South | 3-4 | 7.0 | 22% | 21% | <1% | 6 |
| Saints | South | 2-5 | 6.3 | 12% | 12% | 0% | 28 |
| Eagles | East | 2-5 | 6.7 | 12% | 10% | 0% | 18 |
| Commanders | East | 1-4-1 | 6.1 | 7% | 6% | 0% | 20 |
| Cardinals | West | 2-5 | 5.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 23 |
Schedule rank: 1 is the hardest remaining schedule in the league, 32 the easiest.
How to read these odds. Ties in the simulation are broken by coin flip, not the NFL's full tiebreaker list, so close division races are a little rougher than the real thing. Ratings are held fixed through the simulated weeks and describe each team at full strength, so a long quarterback injury is not carried forward. Treat these as a picture of how hard each road is, not a promise of how it ends.
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