CFB 2026
College football's hardest remaining schedules, and what they mean for the playoff
Every remaining regular-season game, run through our model. Who has the toughest road left, and what each contender needs.
Records in October tell you who has won. Schedules in November tell you who is going to keep winning. We ran every remaining regular-season game through our college football model to find the hardest roads left and what they mean for the 12-team playoff.
How we measured it
For every remaining regular-season game we looked up the opponent's rating in our model, which is how many points better or worse than an average FBS team they rate on a neutral field, and adjusted for location: 3.1 points of difficulty added for a road game and taken off for a home game. The schedule number is the average of those. We also turned each game into a win chance for the team playing it, which gives expected wins and the chance to win out. Teams with at least three games left are ranked. Conference championship games are not included, since most of those matchups are not set yet.
The 10 hardest remaining schedules
| Team | Conf | Record | Left | Avg opponent | Exp. wins | Win out | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LSU | SEC | 6-2 | 4 | +16.6 | 2.0 | 5% |
| 2 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 6-1 | 5 | +16.0 | 1.5 | 0% |
| 3 | Texas A&M | SEC | 4-4 | 4 | +15.6 | 1.9 | 4% |
| 4 | Washington | Big Ten | 4-3 | 5 | +14.8 | 2.0 | 1% |
| 5 | USC | Big Ten | 6-2 | 4 | +14.6 | 1.9 | 3% |
| 6 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 3-5 | 4 | +14.3 | 1.1 | 0% |
| 7 | Missouri | SEC | 5-2 | 5 | +13.9 | 2.2 | 1% |
| 8 | South Carolina | SEC | 4-3 | 5 | +13.7 | 2.0 | 1% |
| 9 | Kentucky | SEC | 7-1 | 4 | +13.2 | 1.5 | 2% |
| 10 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 6-1 | 5 | +12.8 | 4.2 | 41% |
Exp. wins: expected wins over the games left, from our game-by-game win chances. Win out: chance to win every remaining regular-season game.
1. LSU6-2
SEC · 4 games left · average opponent +16.6
Nobody has it worse. Alabama and Texas both come to Baton Rouge, then come trips to Tennessee and Arkansas. Our model has LSU as an underdog in three of its last four games, and the chance of running the table is about 5%. With two losses already, every one of those games carries playoff weight.
- vs Alabama (home, our win chance 41%)
- vs Texas (home, our win chance 48%)
- at Tennessee (road, our win chance 38%)
- at Arkansas (road, our win chance 71%)
2. Northwestern6-1
Big Ten · 5 games left · average opponent +16.0
One of the best stories in the Big Ten runs straight into its hardest month. Our model gives Northwestern a 12% chance at Oregon and 4% at Ohio State. It gives Northwestern about 1.5 more wins on average and a 2% chance of finishing with two losses or fewer.
- at Oregon (road, our win chance 12%)
- vs Iowa (home, our win chance 37%)
- at Ohio State (road, our win chance 4%)
- at Minnesota (road, our win chance 46%)
- vs Illinois (home, our win chance 53%)
9. Kentucky7-1
SEC · 4 games left · average opponent +13.2
The record says contender. The schedule says prove it. A trip to Tennessee, Florida at home, a trip to Missouri and Louisville to close. Our model has Kentucky no better than a coin flip in any of them, which is why its chance of finishing with one loss is just 2%.
- at Tennessee (road, our win chance 20%)
- vs Florida (home, our win chance 52%)
- at Missouri (road, our win chance 34%)
- vs Louisville (home, our win chance 48%)
10. Ohio State6-1
Big Ten · 5 games left · average opponent +12.8
The hardest path of any real title favorite: USC on the road, Oregon at home, then Nebraska and Michigan. The difference is that Ohio State is our top-rated team, so it is favored in every one of them. Our model gives the Buckeyes a 41% chance to win out and a 82% chance to finish the regular season with two losses or fewer.
- at USC (road, our win chance 77%)
- vs Oregon (home, our win chance 76%)
- vs Northwestern (home, our win chance 96%)
- at Nebraska (road, our win chance 85%)
- vs Michigan (home, our win chance 86%)
Playoff outlook
The playoff stays at 12 teams this season. The four Power Four conference champions get in automatically, along with the highest-ranked champion from the rest of FBS, and the selection committee fills the other spots. The four highest-ranked teams get first-round byes, and the field is set on Sunday, December 6.
Our model does not pick the field, the committee does. What we can show is the math each contender faces. Below is every FBS team with one loss or fewer, with its chance to win out and to finish the regular season at one or two losses.
| Team | Conf | Record | Left | Schedule rank | Win out | ≤1 loss | ≤2 losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | ACC | 7-0 | 5 | 41 | 18% | 71% | 96% |
| Utah | Big 12 | 7-0 | 5 | 33 | 20% | 59% | 88% |
| Notre Dame | Independent | 6-1 | 5 | 58 | 55% | 55% | 92% |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 7-1 | 4 | 51 | 52% | 52% | 90% |
| Boise St | Pac-12 | 6-1 | 4 | 93 | 45% | 45% | 85% |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 6-1 | 5 | 10 | 41% | 41% | 82% |
| Georgia | SEC | 6-1 | 5 | 26 | 27% | 27% | 72% |
| UTSA | American | 7-1 | 4 | 97 | 25% | 25% | 69% |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 6-1 | 5 | 53 | 23% | 23% | 63% |
| Liberty | C-USA | 6-1 | 5 | 133 | 22% | 22% | 61% |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 7-0 | 5 | 48 | 2% | 19% | 55% |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 6-1 | 5 | 92 | 12% | 12% | 44% |
| BYU | Big 12 | 6-1 | 5 | 37 | 7% | 7% | 37% |
| SMU | ACC | 6-1 | 5 | 49 | 5% | 5% | 45% |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 6-1 | 5 | 75 | 5% | 5% | 31% |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 6-1 | 5 | 27 | 2% | 2% | 16% |
| Kentucky | SEC | 7-1 | 4 | 9 | 2% | 2% | 15% |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 6-1 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
Schedule rank: where the remaining slate ranks among 138 FBS teams with three or more games left, 1 being hardest. Regular season only.
A few things stand out. Miami and Utah are unbeaten, but our model gives each well under a 25% chance of staying that way through the regular season. Notre Dame and Indiana have the friendliest paths among the top teams: each is better than a coin flip to win out. And UCLA is 7-0 with only a 19% chance of finishing with one loss or fewer, because our model rates the Bruins well below their record.
What would change this. Ratings update every week, so an upset this Saturday changes every number above. Injuries matter too: these ratings describe teams as they have played, not who is in uniform next week.
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