Graded · 2 contests · 177,442 entries
NFL Week 8 FanDuel ownership: CHI @ SEA Single Game
What the field actually played on the NFL Week 8 FanDuel CHI @ SEA Single Game, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
1 game · showdown
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- NFL
- Week
- Week 8
- Site
- FanDuel
- Format
- Showdown (single game)
- Games
- 1
- Teams
- CHI, SEA
- First lock
- Mon Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET
- Player pool
- 29 players
- Projections
- Captured Mon Nov 2, 4:38 PM ET, before lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 2 large-field tournament contests, 177,442 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | WR | 72.4% | 84.5% | +12.1 |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | QB | 62.5% | 73.3% | +10.8 |
| Sam DarnoldSEA | QB | 65.0% | 68.1% | +3.1 |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI | RB | 61.9% | 59.9% | −2.0 |
| Luther Burden IIICHI | WR | 36.1% | 42.4% | +6.3 |
| AJ BarnerSEA | TE | 29.9% | 41.2% | +11.3 |
| Colston LovelandCHI | TE | 28.9% | 32.7% | +3.9 |
| Jason MyersSEA | K | 35.9% | 31.4% | −4.5 |
| Cairo SantosCHI | K | 32.8% | 23.5% | −9.2 |
| Tory HortonSEA | WR | 7.7% | 18.9% | +11.2 |
| Zach CharbonnetSEA | RB | 44.4% | 18.8% | −25.6 |
| Seattle SeahawksSEA | DST | 26.4% | 18.8% | −7.6 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | WR | 72.4% | 84.5% | +12.1 |
| AJ BarnerSEA | TE | 29.9% | 41.2% | +11.3 |
| Tory HortonSEA | WR | 7.7% | 18.9% | +11.2 |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | QB | 62.5% | 73.3% | +10.8 |
| Luther Burden IIICHI | WR | 36.1% | 42.4% | +6.3 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach CharbonnetSEA | RB | 44.4% | 18.8% | −25.6 |
| Emanuel WilsonSEA | RB | 20.2% | 9.3% | −10.8 |
| Cairo SantosCHI | K | 32.8% | 23.5% | −9.2 |
| Seattle SeahawksSEA | DST | 26.4% | 18.8% | −7.6 |
| Chicago BearsCHI | DST | 19.5% | 11.9% | −7.6 |
Large-field tournament contests · n = 30 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 30 players across 2 large-field tournament contests (177,442 entries). On average our number was 5.0 percentage points away from the field's. On the 15 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 7.9 points. Across the board the field owned these players 0.2 points less than we projected, on average.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large-field tournament | 2 | 30 | 5.0 | 0.95 |
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 2 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| $6K Mon NFL Pooch Punt (150 Entries Max) | 143,712 | $0.05 |
| $425K NFL Monday Night Special ($100K to 1st) | 33,730 | $15 |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 29 players, our point projections missed by 2.8 fantasy points on average (3.8 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.86 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre SwiftCHI | 14.4 | 26.9 | +12.5 |
| Emanuel WilsonSEA | 6.7 | 0.0 | −6.7 |
| Zach CharbonnetSEA | 10.9 | 4.4 | −6.5 |
| Luther Burden IIICHI | 9.0 | 15.1 | +6.1 |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | 17.8 | 23.8 | +6.0 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| DST | 2 | 3.6 | −1.1 |
| K | 2 | 4.3 | −0.8 |
| QB | 2 | 2.5 | +0.9 |
| RB | 7 | 4.1 | +0.2 |
| TE | 6 | 0.7 | −0.5 |
| WR | 10 | 2.8 | +2.6 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
Members get projected ownership and points for every player on every slate we cover, lineups tested in contest simulations, and this grade on each one afterwards.
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