Graded · 4 contests · 963,693 entries
NFL Week 5 FanDuel ownership: Main slate
What the field actually played on the NFL Week 5 FanDuel Main slate, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
11 games · classic
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- NFL
- Week
- Week 5
- Site
- FanDuel
- Format
- Classic
- Games
- 11
- Teams
- 22 teams
- First lock
- Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
- Player pool
- 161 players
- Projections
- Captured Sun Oct 11, 12:38 PM ET, before lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 4 large-field tournament contests, 963,693 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael WilsonARI | WR | 18.5% | 51.5% | +33.0 |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI | RB | 40.9% | 45.4% | +4.5 |
| Jahmyr GibbsDET | RB | 37.2% | 40.4% | +3.2 |
| Trey McBrideARI | TE | 9.5% | 37.2% | +27.7 |
| Aaron Jones Sr.MIN | RB | 23.8% | 31.4% | +7.6 |
| Jacoby BrissettARI | QB | 6.1% | 30.2% | +24.1 |
| Jaylen WarrenPIT | RB | 30.4% | 30.1% | −0.2 |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownDET | WR | 20.3% | 28.9% | +8.6 |
| Nico CollinsHOU | WR | 23.4% | 27.1% | +3.6 |
| Washington CommandersWAS | DST | 29.8% | 25.9% | −3.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | WR | 30.3% | 18.9% | −11.5 |
| Jared GoffDET | QB | 7.0% | 18.0% | +11.0 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael WilsonARI | WR | 18.5% | 51.5% | +33.0 |
| Trey McBrideARI | TE | 9.5% | 37.2% | +27.7 |
| Jacoby BrissettARI | QB | 6.1% | 30.2% | +24.1 |
| Jared GoffDET | QB | 7.0% | 18.0% | +11.0 |
| Tre' HarrisLAC | WR | 2.5% | 11.7% | +9.2 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | WR | 30.3% | 18.9% | −11.5 |
| Terry McLaurinWAS | WR | 10.5% | 2.5% | −8.0 |
| Omarion HamptonLAC | RB | 10.2% | 2.2% | −8.0 |
| Christian McCaffreySF | RB | 15.1% | 8.2% | −6.9 |
| Tee HigginsCIN | WR | 9.6% | 3.2% | −6.4 |
Large-field tournament contests · n = 164 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 164 players across 4 large-field tournament contests (963,693 entries). On average our number was 2.7 percentage points away from the field's. On the 23 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 8.5 points. Across the board the field owned these players 0.1 points less than we projected, on average.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large-field tournament | 4 | 164 | 2.7 | 0.82 |
| Small-field or limited-entry tournament | 6 | 164 | 3.6 | 0.76 |
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 11 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| $35K Sun NFL Pooch Punt (Guaranteed Overlay!) | 571,483 | $0.05 |
| Contest 280945029 | 207,707 | - |
| $1.3M NFL Sunday Million ($250K to 1st, Bonus Back Offer!) | 99,740 | $15 |
| Contest 280945030 | 84,763 | - |
| $18K Sun NFL Big $2 Double Up (Top 4500 Win) | 10,344 | $2 |
| Contest 280945039 | 6,017 | - |
| Contest 280945035 | 4,761 | - |
| Contest 280945042 | 3,399 | - |
| Contest 280945100 | 1,732 | - |
| Contest 280948173 | 1,190 | - |
| Contest 280949787 | 257 | - |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 161 players, our point projections missed by 5.6 fantasy points on average (5.6 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.60 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeNE | 18.8 | 42.5 | +23.7 |
| Jaylen WarrenPIT | 14.4 | 36.8 | +22.4 |
| Christian WatsonGB | 12.8 | 32.3 | +19.5 |
| Isaiah LikelyNYG | 7.9 | 26.9 | +19.0 |
| Jayden DanielsWAS | 17.4 | 35.3 | +17.9 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| DST | 22 | 4.8 | +0.7 |
| QB | 22 | 8.1 | +2.2 |
| RB | 38 | 5.5 | +0.7 |
| TE | 25 | 5.4 | +0.8 |
| WR | 54 | 5.1 | +0.4 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
Members get projected ownership and points for every player on every slate we cover, lineups tested in contest simulations, and this grade on each one afterwards.
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