Graded · 5 contests · 803,855 entries
NFL Week 6 DraftKings ownership: Main slate
What the field actually played on the NFL Week 6 DraftKings Main slate, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
10 games · classic
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- NFL
- Week
- Week 6
- Site
- DraftKings
- Format
- Classic
- Games
- 10
- Teams
- 20 teams
- First lock
- Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
- Player pool
- 150 players
- Projections
- Captured Sun Oct 18, 12:07 PM ET, before lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 5 large-field tournament contests, 803,855 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
Some field numbers read low. Part of the real ownership here comes from a results source that counts each player in one roster slot only, so a player the field used in more than one slot can show less ownership than he really had.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka NacuaLAR | WR | 39.5% | 40.7% | +1.2 |
| Isaiah LikelyNYG | TE | 61.7% | 32.5% | −29.2 |
| Drake LondonATL | WR | 8.8% | 28.4% | +19.6 |
| Kyren WilliamsLAR | RB | 23.2% | 27.3% | +4.1 |
| PanthersCAR | DST | 29.2% | 27.2% | −2.0 |
| Bijan RobinsonATL | RB | 8.8% | 26.2% | +17.5 |
| Malik NabersNYG | WR | 21.1% | 21.9% | +0.8 |
| Xavier WorthyKC | WR | 10.3% | 21.3% | +11.0 |
| Germie BernardPIT | WR | 1.3% | 20.7% | +19.4 |
| Kenneth Walker IIIKC | RB | 11.6% | 20.3% | +8.7 |
| Chuba HubbardCAR | RB | 22.2% | 18.0% | −4.2 |
| Brock BowersLV | TE | 4.4% | 17.4% | +13.0 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake LondonATL | WR | 8.8% | 28.4% | +19.6 |
| Germie BernardPIT | WR | 1.3% | 20.7% | +19.4 |
| Bijan RobinsonATL | RB | 8.8% | 26.2% | +17.5 |
| Tyler HigbeeLAR | TE | 0.4% | 14.8% | +14.4 |
| Brock BowersLV | TE | 4.4% | 17.4% | +13.0 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre SwiftCHI | RB | 61.0% | 11.1% | −49.9 |
| Josh DownsIND | WR | 35.8% | 5.0% | −30.8 |
| Isaiah LikelyNYG | TE | 61.7% | 32.5% | −29.2 |
| Keenan AllenIND | WR | 35.6% | 14.3% | −21.3 |
| Garrett WilsonNYJ | WR | 25.2% | 6.8% | −18.3 |
Large-field tournament contests · n = 157 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 157 players across 5 large-field tournament contests (803,855 entries). On average our number was 3.8 percentage points away from the field's. On the 28 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 10.8 points.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large-field tournament | 5 | 157 | 3.8 | 0.65 |
| Small-field or limited-entry tournament | 8 | 156 | 4.0 | 0.62 |
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 14 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| NFL $175K mini-MAX [150 Entry Max] | 416,171 | $0.50 |
| NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st, $100K Leaderboard Eligible] | 161,764 | $20 |
| Contest 196672006 | 95,124 | - |
| Contest 196672012 | 71,343 | - |
| Contest 196672013 | 59,453 | - |
| Contest 196671989 | 23,781 | - |
| Contest 196672042 | 11,890 | - |
| Contest 196672025 | 9,908 | - |
| Contest 196672023 | 8,323 | - |
| NFL GIANT $5 Double Up | 6,896 | $5 |
| Contest 196672043 | 5,945 | - |
| Contest 196672022 | 5,882 | - |
| Contest 196672024 | 4,458 | - |
| Contest 196815479 | 1,902 | - |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 150 players, our point projections missed by 5.1 fantasy points on average (5.0 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.52 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germie BernardPIT | 6.2 | 25.7 | +19.5 |
| Bijan RobinsonATL | 23.9 | 7.3 | −16.6 |
| Tre TuckerLV | 10.2 | 26.7 | +16.5 |
| TitansTEN | 4.7 | 21.0 | +16.3 |
| Malik NabersNYG | 15.7 | 31.5 | +15.8 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| DST | 20 | 4.1 | +0.4 |
| QB | 20 | 4.1 | −0.7 |
| RB | 34 | 5.0 | −1.0 |
| TE | 25 | 6.1 | +0.9 |
| WR | 51 | 5.5 | +0.9 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
Members get projected ownership and points for every player on every slate we cover, lineups tested in contest simulations, and this grade on each one afterwards.
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