Results in · 1 contest · 500 entries
NFL Week 5 DraftKings ownership: BUF @ LAR Showdown
What the field actually played on the NFL Week 5 DraftKings BUF @ LAR Showdown, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
1 game · showdown
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- NFL
- Week
- Week 5
- Site
- DraftKings
- Format
- Showdown (single game)
- Games
- 1
- Teams
- BUF, LAR
- First lock
- Mon Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET
- Player pool
- 29 players
- Projections
- Captured Mon Oct 12, 7:07 PM ET, before lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 1 small-field or limited-entry tournament contest, 500 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
Some field numbers read low. Part of the real ownership here comes from a results source that counts each player in one roster slot only, so a player the field used in more than one slot can show less ownership than he really had.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew StaffordLAR | QB | 68.9% | 82.2% | +13.3 |
| Josh AllenBUF | QB | 55.7% | 73.8% | +18.1 |
| Puka NacuaLAR | WR | 51.0% | 68.0% | +17.0 |
| Kyren WilliamsLAR | RB | 46.0% | 49.4% | +3.4 |
| Skyler BellBUF | WR | 3.2% | 40.6% | +37.4 |
| Dalton KincaidBUF | TE | 35.8% | 36.8% | +1.0 |
| Davante AdamsLAR | WR | 37.9% | 29.0% | −8.9 |
| Keon ColemanBUF | WR | 19.9% | 28.2% | +8.3 |
| Khalil ShakirBUF | WR | 29.1% | 28.2% | −0.9 |
| Colby ParkinsonLAR | TE | 30.1% | 23.4% | −6.7 |
| James Cook IIIBUF | RB | 41.3% | 21.0% | −20.3 |
| Harrison MevisLAR | K | 37.3% | 20.6% | −16.7 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyler BellBUF | WR | 3.2% | 40.6% | +37.4 |
| Josh AllenBUF | QB | 55.7% | 73.8% | +18.1 |
| Puka NacuaLAR | WR | 51.0% | 68.0% | +17.0 |
| Matthew StaffordLAR | QB | 68.9% | 82.2% | +13.3 |
| Keon ColemanBUF | WR | 19.9% | 28.2% | +8.3 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler BassBUF | K | 38.1% | 14.4% | −23.7 |
| James Cook IIIBUF | RB | 41.3% | 21.0% | −20.3 |
| Harrison MevisLAR | K | 37.3% | 20.6% | −16.7 |
| BillsBUF | DST | 15.6% | 3.4% | −12.2 |
| RamsLAR | DST | 18.9% | 9.8% | −9.1 |
1 contest · not enough to grade
Why there is no grade
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests behind it. This slate has results from one small-field or limited-entry tournament contest (500 entries), so the tables above show that contest, and we do not put a grade on it.
The 1 contest behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| NFL Showdown $2M MEGA Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (BUF @ LAR) | 500 | $4,444 |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 29 players, our point projections missed by 4.5 fantasy points on average (6.1 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.91 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puka NacuaLAR | 20.9 | 40.7 | +19.8 |
| Josh AllenBUF | 22.9 | 34.5 | +11.6 |
| Blake CorumLAR | 5.7 | 16.2 | +10.5 |
| Matthew StaffordLAR | 20.0 | 30.3 | +10.3 |
| James Cook IIIBUF | 16.9 | 26.8 | +9.9 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| DST | 2 | 3.2 | −3.2 |
| K | 2 | 4.5 | −0.5 |
| QB | 2 | 11.0 | +11.0 |
| RB | 6 | 5.7 | +5.7 |
| TE | 7 | 3.6 | +0.1 |
| WR | 10 | 3.6 | +2.8 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
Members get projected ownership and points for every player on every slate we cover, lineups tested in contest simulations, and this grade on each one afterwards.
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