Graded · 2 contests · 76,973 entries
NFL Week 5 DraftKings ownership: Afternoon Only slate
What the field actually played on the NFL Week 5 DraftKings Afternoon Only slate, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
3 games · classic
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- NFL
- Week
- Week 5
- Site
- DraftKings
- Format
- Classic
- Games
- 3
- Teams
- ARI, DEN, DET, LAC, SEA, SF
- First lock
- Sun Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET
- Player pool
- 44 players
- Projections
- Captured Sun Oct 11, 1:07 PM ET, before lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 2 large-field tournament contests, 76,973 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
Some field numbers read low. Part of the real ownership here comes from a results source that counts each player in one roster slot only, so a player the field used in more than one slot can show less ownership than he really had.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael WilsonARI | WR | 59.6% | 55.5% | −4.1 |
| Jahmyr GibbsDET | RB | 29.6% | 54.2% | +24.6 |
| Emanuel WilsonSEA | RB | 25.7% | 53.6% | +27.9 |
| Trey McBrideARI | TE | 14.1% | 51.2% | +37.0 |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownDET | WR | 44.2% | 45.7% | +1.5 |
| Tre' HarrisLAC | WR | 23.8% | 42.4% | +18.6 |
| Jacoby BrissettARI | QB | 17.6% | 37.0% | +19.4 |
| Sam LaPortaDET | TE | 36.1% | 34.9% | −1.2 |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | WR | 57.5% | 31.5% | −26.0 |
| Kendrick BourneARI | WR | 6.1% | 29.7% | +23.6 |
| RJ HarveyDEN | RB | 28.4% | 27.9% | −0.5 |
| BroncosDEN | DST | 18.6% | 27.0% | +8.4 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBrideARI | TE | 14.1% | 51.2% | +37.0 |
| Emanuel WilsonSEA | RB | 25.7% | 53.6% | +27.9 |
| Jahmyr GibbsDET | RB | 29.6% | 54.2% | +24.6 |
| Kendrick BourneARI | WR | 6.1% | 29.7% | +23.6 |
| Jacoby BrissettARI | QB | 17.6% | 37.0% | +19.4 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion HamptonLAC | RB | 48.2% | 7.6% | −40.7 |
| Evan EngramDEN | TE | 35.9% | 8.5% | −27.4 |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | WR | 57.5% | 31.5% | −26.0 |
| Jeremiyah LoveARI | RB | 39.5% | 18.6% | −20.8 |
| AJ BarnerSEA | TE | 30.3% | 12.4% | −17.9 |
Large-field tournament contests · n = 53 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 53 players across 2 large-field tournament contests (76,973 entries). On average our number was 9.0 percentage points away from the field's. On the 28 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 12.3 points. Across the board the field owned these players 0.1 points less than we projected, on average.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large-field tournament | 2 | 53 | 9.0 | 0.62 |
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 2 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| NFL $20K mini-MAX [150 Max Entry] (Afternoon Only) | 47,562 | $0.50 |
| NFL $500K Afternoon Only Rush [$100K to 1st] (Afternoon Only) | 29,411 | $20 |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 44 players, our point projections missed by 5.3 fantasy points on average (5.2 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.71 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr GibbsDET | 24.1 | 40.7 | +16.6 |
| Mike EvansSF | 12.9 | 29.3 | +16.4 |
| Jeremiyah LoveARI | 12.9 | 2.2 | −10.7 |
| Ladd McConkeyLAC | 9.8 | 0.0 | −9.8 |
| Jacoby BrissettARI | 16.7 | 26.3 | +9.6 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| DST | 6 | 3.6 | +1.0 |
| QB | 6 | 5.8 | −0.4 |
| RB | 11 | 5.8 | −0.1 |
| TE | 6 | 4.7 | +0.7 |
| WR | 15 | 5.7 | −0.8 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
Members get projected ownership and points for every player on every slate we cover, lineups tested in contest simulations, and this grade on each one afterwards.
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