Graded · 4 contests · 5,104 entries
CBB Nov 2 DraftKings ownership: Main slate
What the field actually played on the CBB Mon Nov 2 DraftKings Main slate, next to what we projected before lock. Our misses are shown in full.
10 games · classic
The slate at a glance
- Sport
- CBB
- Site
- DraftKings
- Format
- Classic
- Games
- 10
- Teams
- 20 teams
- First lock
- Mon Nov 2, 6:00 PM ET
- Player pool
- 280 players
- Projections
- Captured Thu Oct 29, 7:07 PM ET, before lock
Top 12 by real ownership
The chalk: who the field played most
Field ownership is the share of lineups that used each player, from 4 small-field or limited-entry tournament contests, 5,104 entries. Gap is the field minus our projection: green means the field played him more than we expected.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Wright IIIBYU | G | 14.4% | 40.5% | +26.1 |
| Joshua DentSTMRY | G | 18.2% | 39.4% | +21.2 |
| Chase WalkerILLST | F | 10.9% | 33.1% | +22.2 |
| Tylik WeeksMEM | F | 16.5% | 28.8% | +12.3 |
| Rueben ChinyeluUF | F | 29.5% | 28.4% | −1.1 |
| Amir LindseyFORD | G | 5.8% | 28.2% | +22.4 |
| Joaquim Boumtje BoumtjeDUKE | F | 9.2% | 27.1% | +17.9 |
| Alex CondonUF | F | 33.1% | 24.8% | −8.3 |
| Thomas HaughUF | F | 25.3% | 22.2% | −3.1 |
| John BlackwellDUKE | G | 8.1% | 21.8% | +13.7 |
| Darius BivinsSTMRY | G | 5.3% | 21.8% | +16.5 |
| Tyran StokesKU | G | 6.9% | 18.4% | +11.5 |
10 players where we were furthest off
Our biggest misses
We publish these on purpose. The players the field played far more than we expected, and the ones it passed on.
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Wright IIIBYU | G | 14.4% | 40.5% | +26.1 |
| Amir LindseyFORD | G | 5.8% | 28.2% | +22.4 |
| Chase WalkerILLST | F | 10.9% | 33.1% | +22.2 |
| Joshua DentSTMRY | G | 18.2% | 39.4% | +21.2 |
| Joaquim Boumtje BoumtjeDUKE | F | 9.2% | 27.1% | +17.9 |
| Player | Pos | Ours | Field | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan CurryARMY | G | 18.1% | 3.5% | −14.7 |
| Boogie FlandUF | G | 14.7% | 1.2% | −13.5 |
| Sebastian WilkinsDUKE | G/F | 10.3% | 0.6% | −9.8 |
| David MirkovicIL | F | 8.5% | 0.0% | −8.5 |
| Alex CondonUF | F | 33.1% | 24.8% | −8.3 |
Small-field or limited-entry tournament contests · n = 282 players
How our projections held up
We compared our projected ownership with the real field for 282 players across 4 small-field or limited-entry tournament contests (5,104 entries). On average our number was 2.1 percentage points away from the field's. On the 23 players at 10% ownership or more, the average gap was 10.8 points.
The grade by contest type
| Contest type | Contests | Players | Avg gap | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small-field or limited-entry tournament | 4 | 282 | 2.1 | 0.71 |
We grade a contest type once it has at least 2 contests. Cash games are not used to grade tournament ownership.
What these numbers mean
Average gap is how far our projected ownership sat from the real field, in percentage points, averaged over every player compared. If we had a player at 20% and the field played him at 26%, that player adds a 6-point gap.
Correlation measures whether we had the order right: who the field would play most and least. 1.00 would be a perfect match and 0 would be no relationship at all.
Players compared covers our whole player pool plus anyone the field used that we did not have in it.
The 4 contests behind these numbers
| Contest | Entries | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| Contest 197192022 | 1,783 | - |
| Contest 197192024 | 1,783 | - |
| Contest 197192023 | 1,426 | - |
| Contest 197192030 | 112 | - |
How our fantasy point projections held up
Across 206 players, our point projections missed by 7.8 fantasy points on average (7.7 on players who scored), with a correlation of 0.57 against what they actually scored.
| Player | Ours | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan KharchenkovARIZ | 20.9 | 55.0 | +34.1 |
| Ian PlatteeuwDAV | 10.3 | 38.2 | +27.9 |
| Mantas JuzenasSTMRY | 12.9 | 40.2 | +27.4 |
| Ethan BrownIL | 11.5 | 38.8 | +27.2 |
| Sam BrownDAV | 12.7 | 37.0 | +24.3 |
| Pos | Players | Avg miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| F | 95 | 7.5 | +0.0 |
| G | 101 | 8.1 | +1.5 |
| G/F | 10 | 8.6 | +8.5 |
Before the next lock
Get projected ownership for the next slate
Members get projected ownership and points for every player on every slate we cover, lineups tested in contest simulations, and this grade on each one afterwards.
Open the DFS builderCBB on DraftKings