College Football · Best Ball
Where our board disagrees with the market
Our preseason board was built by hand, and Underdog drafters took players in a different order entirely. This is where the two disagreed most, measured against replacement level. Every number is shown, the method is below, and players where neither side has real information are excluded rather than included to pad the list.
Frozen preseason board — set 3 Sep 2026. Drafts are over, so it will not move again this season.
Underpriced
Surplus is in projected points: what we think the player is worth, minus what our own board says a player taken at his draft slot should be worth. Where a note appears, it is the reasoning behind the ranking rather than an output of it.
| Player | Surplus | ADP | Our rank | Value over replacement | 2025 pts/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KJ Duff WR · Rutgers Scarlet Knights | +36.8 | 36.1 | 7 | +62.4 | 15.0 |
| Dre'lon Miller WR · Baylor Bears | +31.5 | 197.3 | 67 | +12.4 | 4.7 |
| Nick Marsh WR · Indiana Hoosiers Strong target share and nation-leading missed-tackle rate support WR1 upside. | +29.2 | 39.1 | 14 | +53.5 | 11.1 |
| Jeremiah Hasley TE · Duke Blue Devils | +27.0 | 156.4 | 57 | +15.5 | 7.8 |
| Mario Craver WR · Texas A&M Aggies Elite 2025 yards per route and yards after catch with a larger A&M opportunity. | +25.5 | 44.8 | 19 | +47.0 | 13.3 |
| Wyatt Young WR · Oklahoma State Cowboys | +22.1 | 32.6 | 12 | +53.9 | 16.4 |
| Isaiah Sategna WR · Oklahoma Sooners | +20.9 | 42.2 | 21 | +44.3 | 13.9 |
| Garrett Oakley TE · Kansas State Wildcats | +20.3 | 131.1 | 60 | +14.5 | 9.4 |
Overpriced
The same arithmetic pointing the other way. These are being drafted well ahead of where our board has them, which is a reason to let someone else take them rather than a prediction that they will be bad.
| Player | Shortfall | ADP | Our rank | Value over replacement | 2025 pts/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Jackson RB · Ohio State Buckeyes | -25.6 | 27.1 | 65 | +12.9 | 13.9 |
| Mark Fletcher Jr. RB · Miami (FL) Hurricanes | -22.0 | 22.9 | 42 | +22.3 | 16.1 |
| Dante Moore QB · Oregon Ducks | -21.9 | 43.8 | 103 | +0.4 | 18.0 |
| Cam Coleman WR · Texas Longhorns | -21.6 | 17.6 | 34 | +29.6 | 10.7 |
| Makhi Hughes RB · Houston Cougars | -21.2 | 27.4 | 56 | +15.9 | 2.6 |
How this is built, and where it can be wrong
These projections are ours, hand-built. An earlier version of this page ran on Underdog’s own projections weighted by a role inferred from Underdog’s ADP, and said so, because it was really the market disagreeing with itself. This board is a person’s work: 251 players ranked and projected by hand, with 2025 production and outside rankings gathered alongside, and 42 more added later for 293 on the board.
That change fixes a specific class of error rather than just improving the numbers. Inferring a player’s role from where he is drafted means inheriting the market’s mistakes: this board previously had Dierre Hill 209th because ADP placed him behind Jordon Davison, so the model called him a backup. Davison has a collarbone problem and Hill has the job. A hand-built board knows that; an ADP-derived one cannot.
Value over replacement compares each player against the last startable player at his position in a 12-team superflex. 2025 points per game is half-PPR, computed from full-season totals, and is shown as context rather than as a projection — a per-game average is not a ceiling.
Only players inside ADP 200 with positive value over replacement appear here. That is not a stylistic choice. Past roughly pick 200 the market stops ranking players and starts discarding them, and their ADP piles up against the floor of the scale. A large gap against a floor is an absence of information, not a disagreement. Ranking on it produces a list of players nobody has priced, which is true arithmetic and a worthless claim, and an earlier version of this board did exactly that.
The projections are the weakest link, not the arithmetic. College football has far thinner public projection data than the NFL, and a player whose role changes in September can move a long way. Treat the direction as the signal and the exact points as approximate.
ADP from Underdog. Nothing here is betting advice.
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