CFB · Moneyline record · 2026
Each week our model picks a side in every college football game. Here is how every one of those picks did against DraftKings' closing odds, and the win rate each price needed to break even.
The bottom line
Winning 82% sounds great. Most of these picks were favorites, though, and favorites have to win a lot just to break even. At these prices that bar was 80.4%. So the honest summary is: close to even, and not yet enough games to call it more than that.
Where it held up and where it didn't
Split the same picks by how they lined up with the market. Every row is a flat 1-unit bet on each pick at DraftKings' closing price.
| Which picks | Picks | W-L | Won | Needed | Units | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Every pick | 128 | 105-23 | 82% | 80.4% | +0.67 | +0.5% ±5.6 |
| Our pick was also the DraftKings favorite | 113 | 101-12 | 89.4% | 86.9% | +3.58 | +3.2% ±3.8 |
| Our pick was the DraftKings underdog | 15 | 4-11 | 26.7% | 30.8% | −2.91 | −19.4% ±39 |
| We gave our pick a higher win chance than DraftKings did | 31 | 14-17 | 45.2% | 47.6% | −3.27 | −10.6% ±21.2 |
By week: Week 1 went 50-9 for +1.80 units · Week 2 went 55-14 for −1.12 units.
Every pick
Odds is DraftKings' closing moneyline on our pick. Needed is the win rate that price needs to break even. Book and Ours are the win chances DraftKings (vig removed) and our model gave that team. Result shows the final score, our pick's points first.
| Wk | Our pick | Odds | Needed | Book | Ours | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eastern Michigan vs San José State · Sep 4 | -115 | 53.5% | 51.1% | 61.8% | Lost 21–27 | −1.00 |
| 1 | Georgia State vs North Carolina A&T · Sep 4 | -4000 | 97.6% | 94.3% | 77.7% | Won 59–10 | +0.03 |
| 1 | Miami at Stanford · Sep 4 | -4000 | 97.6% | 94.3% | 75% | Won 45–6 | +0.03 |
| 1 | Toledo at Michigan State · Sep 4 | +310 | 24.4% | 23.4% | 54.3% | Lost 20–30 | −1.00 |
| 1 | USC vs Fresno State · Sep 4 | -2100 | 95.5% | 92% | 75% | Won 39–0 | +0.05 |
| 1 | Air Force vs Duquesne · Sep 5 | -4000 | 97.6% | 94.3% | 68.7% | Won 34–0 | +0.03 |
| 1 | Alabama vs East Carolina · Sep 5 | -6500 | 98.5% | 95.4% | 81.3% | Won 48–10 | +0.02 |
| 1 | App State vs Maine · Sep 5 | -1450 | 93.5% | 89.9% | 60.6% | Won 55–3 | +0.07 |
| 1 | Arizona vs Northern Arizona · Sep 5 | -8000 | 98.8% | 95.8% | 73.3% | Won 35–7 | +0.01 |
| 1 | Auburn vs Baylor · Sep 5 | -258 | 72.1% | 69.1% | 56.2% | Won 17–16 | +0.39 |
| 1 | California vs UCLA · Sep 5 | +120 | 45.5% | 43.6% | 66.3% | Lost 24–45 | −1.00 |
| 1 | Charlotte vs The Citadel · Sep 5 | -1650 | 94.3% | 90.8% | 58% | Lost 41–43 | −1.00 |
| 1 | Cincinnati vs Boston College · Sep 5 | -285 | 74% | 71% | 72.5% | Won 34–15 | +0.35 |
| 1 | Colorado State vs Wyoming · Sep 5 | -130 | 56.5% | 54.3% | 56.5% | Won 35–13 | +0.77 |
| 1 | Duke vs Tulane · Sep 5 | -380 | 79.2% | 76% | 60.5% | Won 17–3 | +0.26 |
| 1 | Florida vs Florida Atlantic · Sep 5 | -2400 | 96% | 92.6% | 79.8% | Won 66–21 | +0.04 |
| 1 | Georgia Southern vs Charleston Southern · Sep 5 | -5000 | 98% | 94.9% | 76.3% | Won 31–0 | +0.02 |
| 1 | Houston vs Oregon State · Sep 5 | -1450 | 93.5% | 89.9% | 72.4% | Won 33–20 | +0.07 |
| 1 | Iowa vs Northern Illinois · Sep 5 | -10000 | 99% | 96.8% | 84% | Won 40–0 | +0.01 |
| 1 | Iowa State vs Southeast Missouri State · Sep 5 | -9000 | 98.9% | 96.3% | 82.4% | Won 38–10 | +0.01 |
| 1 | Jacksonville State vs Eastern Kentucky · Sep 5 | -2100 | 95.5% | 92% | 75.1% | Won 49–7 | +0.05 |
| 1 | James Madison vs Liberty · Sep 5 | -225 | 69.2% | 66.4% | 82.8% | Won 20–13 | +0.44 |
| 1 | Kentucky vs Youngstown State · Sep 5 | -2100 | 95.5% | 92% | 65.2% | Won 45–13 | +0.05 |
| 1 | LSU vs Clemson · Sep 5 | -410 | 80.4% | 77.1% | 61.5% | Won 51–10 | +0.24 |
| 1 | Louisiana vs Lamar · Sep 5 | -1200 | 92.3% | 88.7% | 69.6% | Won 38–7 | +0.08 |
| 1 | Memphis vs Arkansas State · Sep 5 | -395 | 79.8% | 76.6% | 82.5% | Won 42–24 | +0.25 |
| 1 | Michigan vs Western Michigan · Sep 5 | -8000 | 98.8% | 95.8% | 82.7% | Won 13–12 | +0.01 |
| 1 | Middle Tennessee vs Murray State · Sep 5 | -1800 | 94.7% | 91.2% | 78.9% | Won 38–14 | +0.06 |
| 1 | Mississippi State vs UL Monroe · Sep 5 | -4000 | 97.6% | 94.3% | 82.9% | Won 62–13 | +0.03 |
| 1 | Navy vs Towson · Sep 5 | -100000 | 99.9% | 98.1% | 75.2% | Won 42–15 | +0.00 |
| 1 | Nebraska vs Ohio · Sep 5 | -2100 | 95.5% | 92% | 62.1% | Won 49–21 | +0.05 |
| 1 | New Mexico vs Central Michigan · Sep 5 | -470 | 82.5% | 79.1% | 68.3% | Won 38–7 | +0.21 |
| 1 | New Mexico State vs Mercyhurst · Sep 5 | -8000 | 98.8% | 95.8% | 62% | Won 51–14 | +0.01 |
| 1 | Oregon vs Boise State · Sep 5 | -2800 | 96.5% | 93.1% | 81.8% | Won 34–27 | +0.04 |
| 1 | Penn State vs Marshall · Sep 5 | -2100 | 95.5% | 92% | 83.7% | Won 45–0 | +0.05 |
| 1 | Pittsburgh vs Miami (OH) · Sep 5 | -850 | 89.5% | 85.8% | 70.8% | Won 59–14 | +0.12 |
| 1 | Rhode Island at Temple · Sep 5 | +490 | 17% | 16.3% | 56.9% | Lost 14–38 | −1.00 |
| 1 | Rice vs Houston Christian · Sep 5 | -2400 | 96% | 92.6% | 67.3% | Won 31–3 | +0.04 |
| 1 | South Alabama vs SE Louisiana · Sep 5 | -575 | 85.2% | 81.7% | 62.6% | Won 39–14 | +0.17 |
| 1 | South Carolina vs Kent State · Sep 5 | -50000 | 99.8% | 97.6% | 91.1% | Won 57–0 | +0.00 |
| 1 | South Dakota State at Northwestern · Sep 5 | +400 | 20% | 19.2% | 66.2% | Lost 18–34 | −1.00 |
| 1 | South Florida vs Florida International · Sep 5 | -650 | 86.7% | 83.2% | 81.4% | Won 19–9 | +0.15 |
| 1 | Southern Miss vs Alcorn State · Sep 5 | -1600 | 94.1% | 90.4% | 58.6% | Won 49–3 | +0.06 |
| 1 | Syracuse vs New Hampshire · Sep 5 | -100000 | 99.9% | 98.1% | 58.3% | Won 66–3 | +0.00 |
| 1 | Tarleton State at Bowling Green · Sep 5 | +105 | 48.8% | 46.8% | 61.6% | Won 20–13 | +1.05 |
| 1 | Texas vs Texas State · Sep 5 | -8000 | 98.8% | 95.8% | 81.4% | Won 59–7 | +0.01 |
| 1 | Troy vs Sam Houston · Sep 5 | -800 | 88.9% | 85.2% | 77.9% | Won 24–21 | +0.13 |
| 1 | Tulsa vs Oklahoma State · Sep 5 | +390 | 20.4% | 19.6% | 58.1% | Won 24–10 | +3.90 |
| 1 | UConn vs Lafayette · Sep 5 | -1800 | 94.7% | 91.2% | 66.1% | Won 56–7 | +0.06 |
| 1 | UNLV at Hawai'i · Sep 5 | -125 | 55.6% | 53.2% | 52.7% | Won 21–6 | +0.80 |
| 1 | UTSA vs UT Rio Grande Valley · Sep 5 | -6500 | 98.5% | 95.4% | 54.1% | Won 45–16 | +0.02 |
| 1 | Utah State vs Idaho State · Sep 5 | -675 | 87.1% | 83.7% | 68% | Lost 17–29 | −1.00 |
| 1 | Vanderbilt vs Austin Peay · Sep 5 | -6500 | 98.5% | 95.4% | 72.2% | Won 28–9 | +0.02 |
| 1 | West Virginia vs Coastal Carolina · Sep 5 | -1800 | 94.7% | 91.2% | 70.8% | Won 31–24 | +0.06 |
| 1 | Western Kentucky at Nevada · Sep 5 | -112 | 52.8% | 50.4% | 56.3% | Lost 14–49 | −1.00 |
| 1 | Notre Dame vs Wisconsin · Sep 6 | -1800 | 94.7% | 91.2% | 81.9% | Won 41–13 | +0.06 |
| 1 | Ole Miss vs Louisville · Sep 6 | -245 | 71% | 68.1% | 62.5% | Won 41–38 | +0.41 |
| 1 | Washington vs Washington State · Sep 6 | -2800 | 96.5% | 93.1% | 75.5% | Won 24–10 | +0.04 |
| 1 | Florida State vs SMU · Sep 7 | +130 | 43.5% | 41.7% | 52.4% | Lost 24–27 | −1.00 |
| 2 | Boston College vs Rutgers · Sep 11 | -148 | 59.7% | 57.2% | 62.2% | Won 28–21 | +0.68 |
| 2 | Kansas vs Missouri · Sep 11 | +164 | 37.9% | 36.3% | 55.9% | Lost 21–38 | −1.00 |
| 2 | NC State vs Richmond · Sep 11 | -6500 | 98.5% | 95.4% | 70.4% | Won 73–0 | +0.02 |
| 2 | Akron vs Robert Morris · Sep 12 | -2800 | 96.5% | 93.1% | 64% | Won 45–10 | +0.04 |
| 2 | Alabama at Kentucky · Sep 12 | -380 | 79.2% | 76% | 60.5% | Won 45–17 | +0.26 |
| 2 | Arkansas State vs West Georgia · Sep 12 | -10000 | 99% | 96.8% | 65.3% | Won 52–7 | +0.01 |
| 2 | Army vs South Florida · Sep 12 | -166 | 62.4% | 60% | 65.2% | Lost 24–28 | −1.00 |
| 2 | Auburn vs Southern Miss · Sep 12 | -9000 | 98.9% | 96.3% | 82.8% | Won 43–8 | +0.01 |
| 2 | BYU vs Arizona · Sep 12 | -258 | 72.1% | 69.1% | 72.4% | Won 28–17 | +0.39 |
| 2 | Ball State vs Stony Brook · Sep 12 | -600 | 85.7% | 82.2% | 54.8% | Won 41–17 | +0.17 |
| 2 | Boise State vs Memphis · Sep 12 | -360 | 78.3% | 75.1% | 65.5% | Won 38–20 | +0.28 |
| 2 | Central Michigan vs Colgate · Sep 12 | -1600 | 94.1% | 90.4% | 66.7% | Won 13–10 | +0.06 |
| 2 | Clemson vs Georgia Southern · Sep 12 | -1450 | 93.5% | 89.9% | 81.2% | Won 22–7 | +0.07 |
| 2 | Coastal Carolina vs Fordham · Sep 12 | -100000 | 99.9% | 98.1% | 76.1% | Won 45–7 | +0.00 |
| 2 | Colorado vs Weber State · Sep 12 | -8000 | 98.8% | 95.8% | 70.5% | Won 52–21 | +0.01 |
| 2 | Colorado State vs Southern Utah · Sep 12 | -1350 | 93.1% | 89.3% | 51.3% | Won 58–24 | +0.07 |
| 2 | East Carolina vs App State · Sep 12 | -250 | 71.4% | 68.5% | 77% | Lost 24–27 | −1.00 |
| 2 | Florida International vs Buffalo · Sep 12 | -345 | 77.5% | 74.4% | 64% | Won 33–20 | +0.29 |
| 2 | Fresno State vs Sacramento State · Sep 12 | -950 | 90.5% | 86.8% | 64.5% | Won 49–3 | +0.11 |
| 2 | Hawai'i vs New Mexico State · Sep 12 | -340 | 77.3% | 74.1% | 66.1% | Won 29–19 | +0.29 |
| 2 | Illinois vs Duke · Sep 12 | -250 | 71.4% | 68.5% | 63.3% | Lost 27–31 | −1.00 |
| 2 | Illinois State at Northern Illinois · Sep 12 | -148 | 59.7% | 57.2% | 58.8% | Won 28–24 | +0.68 |
| 2 | Iowa vs Iowa State · Sep 12 | -650 | 86.7% | 83.2% | 68% | Won 16–13 | +0.15 |
| 2 | Kansas State vs Washington State · Sep 12 | -1000 | 90.9% | 87.2% | 75.6% | Won 34–7 | +0.10 |
| 2 | Kennesaw State vs Georgia State · Sep 12 | -325 | 76.5% | 73.4% | 73.3% | Lost 17–31 | −1.00 |
| 2 | LSU vs Louisiana Tech · Sep 12 | -20000 | 99.5% | 97.3% | 79.5% | Won 45–14 | +0.01 |
| 2 | Liberty vs Gardner-Webb · Sep 12 | -3200 | 97% | 93.6% | 75% | Won 24–23 | +0.03 |
| 2 | Marshall vs Middle Tennessee · Sep 12 | -455 | 82% | 78.7% | 77.8% | Won 28–26 | +0.22 |
| 2 | Miami (OH) vs Holy Cross · Sep 12 | -6500 | 98.5% | 95.4% | 67.8% | Won 45–7 | +0.02 |
| 2 | Michigan vs Oklahoma · Sep 12 | +190 | 34.5% | 33.1% | 64.5% | Won 17–10 | +1.90 |
| 2 | Michigan State vs Eastern Michigan · Sep 12 | -850 | 89.5% | 85.8% | 73.8% | Won 35–7 | +0.12 |
| 2 | Minnesota vs Mississippi State · Sep 12 | -110 | 52.4% | 50% | 66.6% | Lost 13–38 | −1.00 |
| 2 | Missouri State vs Lindenwood · Sep 12 | -900 | 90% | 86.3% | 72.1% | Won 48–14 | +0.11 |
| 2 | Montana State at Nevada · Sep 12 | -218 | 68.5% | 65.8% | 75.7% | Won 20–7 | +0.46 |
| 2 | Navy at Florida Atlantic · Sep 12 | -205 | 67.2% | 64.5% | 55% | Lost 30–38 | −1.00 |
| 2 | Nebraska vs Bowling Green · Sep 12 | -9000 | 98.9% | 96.3% | 77% | Won 56–7 | +0.01 |
| 2 | North Carolina vs East Tennessee State · Sep 12 | -100000 | 99.9% | 98.1% | 71.2% | Won 35–3 | +0.00 |
| 2 | North Dakota State at Air Force · Sep 12 | -122 | 54.9% | 52.6% | 68% | Won 38–32 | +0.82 |
| 2 | North Texas vs UNLV · Sep 12 | +124 | 44.6% | 42.8% | 66.5% | Won 44–6 | +1.24 |
| 2 | Ohio vs Jacksonville State · Sep 12 | -125 | 55.6% | 53.2% | 62.6% | Won 29–27 | +0.80 |
| 2 | Oregon at Oklahoma State · Sep 12 | -2400 | 96% | 92.6% | 78.3% | Lost 31–39 | −1.00 |
| 2 | Penn State at Temple · Sep 12 | -3600 | 97.3% | 94% | 76% | Won 27–9 | +0.03 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh vs UCF · Sep 12 | -298 | 74.9% | 71.8% | 67.5% | Won 12–7 | +0.34 |
| 2 | SMU vs UC Davis · Sep 12 | -3200 | 97% | 93.6% | 77.4% | Won 56–10 | +0.03 |
| 2 | Sacred Heart at Massachusetts · Sep 12 | +1200 | 7.7% | 7.4% | 54.8% | Lost 10–37 | −1.00 |
| 2 | Sam Houston vs Tulsa · Sep 12 | +360 | 21.7% | 20.9% | 65.4% | Lost 17–23 | −1.00 |
| 2 | San José State vs Cal Poly · Sep 12 | -2100 | 95.5% | 92% | 71.8% | Won 30–20 | +0.05 |
| 2 | Syracuse vs California · Sep 12 | -198 | 66.4% | 63.7% | 65.9% | Lost 18–21 | −1.00 |
| 2 | Tennessee at Georgia Tech · Sep 12 | -485 | 82.9% | 79.6% | 55.4% | Won 45–24 | +0.21 |
| 2 | Texas vs Ohio State · Sep 12 | -142 | 58.7% | 56.4% | 50.3% | Won 24–23 | +0.70 |
| 2 | Texas A&M vs Arizona State · Sep 12 | -800 | 88.9% | 85.2% | 76.5% | Won 48–20 | +0.13 |
| 2 | Texas State vs UTSA · Sep 12 | -122 | 54.9% | 52.6% | 55.2% | Lost 26–31 | −1.00 |
| 2 | Texas Tech at Oregon State · Sep 12 | -2800 | 96.5% | 93.1% | 66.7% | Won 35–24 | +0.04 |
| 2 | Toledo vs Central Connecticut · Sep 12 | -50000 | 99.8% | 97.6% | 84.2% | Won 63–10 | +0.00 |
| 2 | Troy vs Alabama State · Sep 12 | -2100 | 95.5% | 92% | 58.6% | Won 34–17 | +0.05 |
| 2 | Tulane vs South Alabama · Sep 12 | -360 | 78.3% | 75.1% | 73.4% | Won 28–24 | +0.28 |
| 2 | UAB vs UL Monroe · Sep 12 | -375 | 79% | 75.7% | 74.2% | Won 26–20 | +0.27 |
| 2 | UCLA vs San Diego State · Sep 12 | -535 | 84.2% | 80.8% | 63.8% | Won 28–10 | +0.19 |
| 2 | UConn vs Maryland · Sep 12 | +350 | 22.2% | 21.3% | 63.8% | Lost 14–38 | −1.00 |
| 2 | USC vs Louisiana · Sep 12 | -6500 | 98.5% | 95.4% | 81.8% | Won 49–30 | +0.02 |
| 2 | UTEP vs Texas Southern · Sep 12 | -4500 | 97.8% | 94.6% | 65.7% | Won 51–10 | +0.02 |
| 2 | Utah vs Arkansas · Sep 12 | -625 | 86.2% | 82.7% | 81% | Won 43–10 | +0.16 |
| 2 | Vanderbilt vs Delaware · Sep 12 | -1350 | 93.1% | 89.3% | 75.2% | Won 35–26 | +0.07 |
| 2 | Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion · Sep 12 | -950 | 90.5% | 86.8% | 61.9% | Won 44–21 | +0.11 |
| 2 | Wake Forest at Purdue · Sep 12 | -142 | 58.7% | 56.4% | 51.8% | Won 38–36 | +0.70 |
| 2 | Washington vs Utah State · Sep 12 | -6500 | 98.5% | 95.4% | 83.6% | Won 16–14 | +0.02 |
| 2 | Western Michigan vs Monmouth · Sep 12 | -5000 | 98% | 94.9% | 64.4% | Won 49–14 | +0.02 |
| 2 | Wofford at Kent State · Sep 12 | +350 | 22.2% | 21.3% | 55.9% | Lost 15–36 | −1.00 |
| 2 | Wyoming vs Northern Colorado · Sep 12 | -1800 | 94.7% | 91.2% | 78.4% | Won 21–13 | +0.06 |
Read this before using it
A small sample, on purpose. Two weeks of games is not a season. We show every pick as it happens so the record builds in public, and a record this short says little about what comes next.
How it's graded. Each pick uses the current model re-run on only the games played before that kickoff, so no result leaks into its own pick. The sheet published in weeks 1 and 2 used an earlier version of the model, so a few of its picks differ from this list.
Single bets only. A parlay pays the book's margin once per leg, so it has a higher bar than any row here.
What would change our view
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Odds are DraftKings' closing moneylines. Results are final scores. 21+. This is a record of past results, not betting advice, and it is not a prediction of future results. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.