Big Ten Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
31 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 18.6
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, time TBA | Denver #228 | Home | −17.9 | 95% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, time TBA | Delaware #324 | Home | −21.9 | 98% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, 8:30 PM ET | Fairfield #243 | Home | −18.5 | 95% |
| 4 | Sun Nov 15, 8:00 PM ET | Coastal Carolina #266 | Home | −19.1 | 96% |
| 5 | Thu Nov 19, 8:30 PM ET | Seton Hall #58 | Neutral at Baha Mar Convention Center Baha Mar Championship | −2.4 | 59% |
| 6 | Wed Nov 25, 7:00 PM ET | Northeastern #303 | Home | −21.9 | 98% |
| 7 | Tue Dec 1, 9:00 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Away · conference | −1.3 | 55% |
| 8 | Sat Dec 5, 2:00 PM ET | Marquette #68 | Away | −1.6 | 56% |
| 9 | Tue Dec 8, 9:00 PM ET | Purdue #21 | Home · conference | +1.3 | 45% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 12, 12:00 PM ET | Villanova #28 | Neutral at Xfinity Mobile Arena | +2.3 | 42% |
| 11 | Sat Dec 19, 4:00 PM ET | Auburn #36 | Neutral at Bridgestone Arena Bad Boy Mowers Series | +0.7 | 47% |
| 12 | Tue Dec 22, 8:00 PM ET | Purdue Fort Wayne #227 | Home | −17.9 | 95% |
| 13 | Wed Dec 30, 8:00 PM ET | Colorado State #85 | Home | −7.8 | 76% |
| 14 | Sat Jan 2, 8:00 PM ET | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +5.8 | 30% |
| 15 | Wed Jan 6, 8:30 PM ET | Iowa #31 | Away · conference | +3.6 | 37% |
| 16 | Sat Jan 9, 12:00 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Home · conference | −7.9 | 76% |
| 17 | Wed Jan 13, 7:00 PM ET | Penn State #108 | Home · conference | −10.6 | 83% |
| 18 | Sat Jan 16, 6:00 PM ET | USC #39 | Away · conference | +2.3 | 42% |
| 19 | Tue Jan 19, 10:30 PM ET | UCLA #45 | Away · conference | +1.5 | 45% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 23, 2:00 PM ET | Washington #65 | Home · conference | −5.5 | 69% |
| 21 | Tue Jan 26, 7:00 PM ET | Maryland #97 | Away · conference | −5.0 | 68% |
| 22 | Sun Jan 31, 1:00 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Away · conference | −4.0 | 64% |
| 23 | Wed Feb 3, 8:30 PM ET | Oregon #75 | Home · conference | −7.0 | 74% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 6, time TBA | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +8.9 | 21% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 9, 8:30 PM ET | Ohio State #30 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +3.9 | 36% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 13, 12:00 PM ET | Rutgers #95 | Away · conference | −5.0 | 67% |
| 27 | Fri Feb 19, 8:00 PM ET | Indiana #38 | Home · conference | −1.8 | 57% |
| 28 | Wed Feb 24, 8:30 PM ET | Iowa #31 | Home · conference | −0.2 | 51% |
| 29 | Sun Feb 28, 1:30 PM ET | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +9.9 | 18% |
| 30 | Wed Mar 3, 8:30 PM ET | Nebraska #15 | Home · conference | +3.0 | 39% |
| 31 | Sat Mar 6, 3:45 PM ET | Michigan State #12 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +7.7 | 24% |
Spread is from Wisconsin's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eian Elmer | SF | 6-6 | SR | Transfer | · | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 30.3 | 26.3 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.1 |
| Nolan Winter | C | 7-0 | SR | Returning | #125 | 13.1 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 30.7 | 26.1 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 1.4 |
| Trey Autry | SG | 6-4 | SR | Transfer | #296 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 28.7 | 24.6 | 9.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| Austin Rapp | PF | 6-10 | JR | Returning | · | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 23.2 | 20.1 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 |
| Victory Onuetu | C | 6-11 | SR | Transfer | · | 4.7 | 6.9 | 0.4 | 17.9 | 19.1 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 0.6 |
| LaTrevion Fenderson | SG | 6-3 | FR | Recruit | #242 | · | · | · | · | 11.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| Jack Janicki | SG | 6-5 | SR | Returning | · | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 16.5 | 11.8 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Hayden Jones | SG | 6-6 | SO | Returning | · | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Zach Kinziger | PG | 6-3 | SO | Returning | #112 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Will Garlock | PF | 7-0 | SO | Returning | #270 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| Braeden Carrington | SG | 6-5 | SR | Returning | #237 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 18.1 | · | · | · | · |
| Isaac Riddle | SF | 6-8 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Jackson Ball | SG | 6-5 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Josh Manchester | SG | 6-4 | FR | Recruit | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Owen Foxwell | PG | 6-2 | SR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.