Big Ten Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
29 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 14.9
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, time TBA | Colgate #235 | Home | −14.2 | 90% |
| 2 | Mon Nov 9, 10:00 PM ET | Mississippi Valley State #360 | Home | −24.9 | 99% |
| 3 | Sat Nov 14, time TBA | Utah #98 | Away | −1.9 | 57% |
| 4 | Thu Nov 19, time TBA | Utah Tech #208 | Home | −13.0 | 88% |
| 5 | Mon Nov 23, 5:00 PM ET | BYU #27 | Neutral at Lahaina Civic Center Southwest Maui Invitational | +6.0 | 29% |
| 6 | Sun Nov 29, 7:30 PM ET | Norfolk State #337 | Home | −21.0 | 97% |
| 7 | Wed Dec 2, 10:30 PM ET | USC #39 | Away · conference | +5.7 | 30% |
| 8 | Tue Dec 8, 10:00 PM ET | Southern Utah #217 | Home | −14.2 | 90% |
| 9 | Sun Dec 13, 8:00 PM ET | UCLA #45 | Home · conference | +0.8 | 47% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 19, 10:00 PM ET | Baylor #43 | Home | +1.0 | 46% |
| 11 | Mon Dec 28, 10:00 PM ET | Cornell #171 | Home | −12.2 | 87% |
| 12 | Sat Jan 2, 2:00 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +16.5 | 7% |
| 13 | Tue Jan 5, 6:30 PM ET | Michigan State #12 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +10.8 | 16% |
| 14 | Sat Jan 9, 3:00 PM ET | Indiana #38 | Home · conference | +1.5 | 45% |
| 15 | Wed Jan 13, 11:00 PM ET | Nebraska #15 | Home · conference | +6.2 | 29% |
| 16 | Sat Jan 16, 3:00 PM ET | UCLA #45 | Away · conference | +4.7 | 33% |
| 17 | Wed Jan 20, 10:30 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Home · conference | −2.0 | 57% |
| 18 | Sat Jan 23, 2:00 PM ET | Wisconsin #41 | Away · conference | +5.5 | 31% |
| 19 | Tue Jan 26, 9:00 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Away · conference | −0.8 | 53% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 30, 4:00 PM ET | Rutgers #95 | Home · conference | −5.6 | 69% |
| 21 | Sun Feb 7, 4:30 PM ET | Oregon #75 | Away · conference | +0.5 | 48% |
| 22 | Wed Feb 10, 10:30 PM ET | USC #39 | Home · conference | +1.5 | 45% |
| 23 | Sun Feb 14, 1:00 PM ET | Ohio State #30 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +7.1 | 26% |
| 24 | Wed Feb 17, 7:00 PM ET | Penn State #108 | Away · conference | −3.1 | 61% |
| 25 | Sat Feb 20, 5:00 PM ET | Maryland #97 | Home · conference | −5.6 | 70% |
| 26 | Tue Feb 23, 10:00 PM ET | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +9.0 | 21% |
| 27 | Sat Feb 27, 8:30 PM ET | Purdue #21 | Home · conference | +4.5 | 34% |
| 28 | Tue Mar 2, 7:00 PM ET | Iowa #31 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +6.7 | 27% |
| 29 | Sat Mar 6, 10:00 PM ET | Oregon #75 | Home · conference | −3.5 | 63% |
Spread is from Washington's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Beasley | PG | 5-11 | SR | Transfer | · | 13.6 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 33.3 | 24.7 | 10.5 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| LeJuan Watts | SF | 6-5 | SR | Transfer | · | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 27.3 | 22.0 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 |
| Parker Friedrichsen | SG | 6-4 | SR | Transfer | #129 | 10.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 25.3 | 21.4 | 9.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Wesley Yates III | SG | 6-4 | JR | Returning | #50 | 12.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 31.4 | 20.7 | 8.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Harun Zrno | SG | 6-7 | SO | Transfer | · | 6.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 19.1 | 16.9 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Steele Venters | SG | 6-7 | SR | Transfer | · | 5.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 15.1 | 15.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Lathan Sommerville | C | 6-10 | JR | Returning | #111 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 14.5 | 10.5 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| Nikola Dzepina | PF | 6-10 | SO | Returning | · | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Jasir Rencher | SF | 6-5 | SO | Returning | #91 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| BJ Roy | PG | 6-2 | SO | Walk-on | · | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Tayshawn Comer | PG | 6-1 | SR | Transfer | · | 11.0 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 25.2 | · | · | · | · |
| Lat Ford | SF | 6-7 | FR | Recruit | #282 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Mady Traore | PF | 6-11 | SR | Returning | #259 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Tristan Devers | SG | 6-4 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Wini Braga | PF | 6-9 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.