Atlantic Coast Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
31 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 21.9
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tue Nov 3, 7:30 PM ET | Drexel #219 | Home | −19.3 | 96% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, 5:00 PM ET | Northeastern #303 | Home | −24.5 | 99% |
| 3 | Sun Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET | Arkansas #16 | Neutral at Capital One Arena Capital Showcase | +1.2 | 46% |
| 4 | Tue Nov 10, 9:00 PM ET | Bucknell #336 | Home | −26.9 | 99% |
| 5 | Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM ET | Maryland #97 | Away | −8.0 | 77% |
| 6 | Tue Nov 17, 9:00 PM ET | Old Dominion #281 | Home | −23.1 | 98% |
| 7 | Fri Nov 20, 7:00 PM ET | Loyola Maryland #340 | Home | −27.7 | 99% |
| 8 | Wed Nov 25, 12:00 PM ET | Marquette #68 | Neutral at Imperial Arena Battle 4 Atlantis - Signature Series | −6.9 | 73% |
| 9 | Fri Nov 27, 11:00 AM ET | Xavier #71 | Neutral at Imperial Arena Battle 4 Atlantis - Signature Series | −7.5 | 75% |
| 10 | Wed Dec 2, 7:15 PM ET | Kentucky #26 | Home ACC/SEC Men's Challenge | −2.3 | 58% |
| 11 | Tue Dec 8, 7:00 PM ET | Bethune-Cookman #256 | Home | −21.9 | 98% |
| 12 | Sun Dec 13, 12:00 PM ET | Western Carolina #189 | Home | −18.7 | 96% |
| 13 | Sun Dec 20, 3:00 PM ET | UConn #13 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Madison Square Garden | +1.9 | 43% |
| 14 | Tue Dec 29, 6:00 PM ET | Clemson #19 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +2.2 | 42% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 2, 6:00 PM ET | SMU #50 | Home · conference | −7.2 | 74% |
| 16 | Wed Jan 6, 9:00 PM ET | Stanford #76 | Away · conference | −6.1 | 71% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 9, 4:00 PM ET | California #94 | Away · conference | −8.1 | 77% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 13, 8:00 PM ET | Boston College #111 | Home · conference | −13.5 | 89% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 16, 6:00 PM ET | Miami #24 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +1.8 | 44% |
| 20 | Tue Jan 19, 9:00 PM ET | North Carolina #33 | Away · conference | −0.2 | 51% |
| 21 | Wed Jan 27, 8:00 PM ET | Georgia Tech #112 | Home · conference | −14.4 | 91% |
| 22 | Sat Jan 30, 6:00 PM ET | Virginia Tech #52 | Home · conference | −7.5 | 75% |
| 23 | Wed Feb 3, 9:00 PM ET | Syracuse #56 | Away · conference | −3.7 | 63% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 6, time TBA | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +5.8 | 30% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 9, 7:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh #83 | Away · conference | −6.7 | 73% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 13, 2:00 PM ET | Notre Dame #74 | Home · conference | −9.8 | 81% |
| 27 | Mon Feb 15, 7:00 PM ET | Louisville #9 | Home · conference | +1.5 | 45% |
| 28 | Tue Feb 23, 7:00 PM ET | Virginia Tech #52 | Away · conference | −3.5 | 62% |
| 29 | Sat Feb 27, 2:00 PM ET | Florida State #82 | Home · conference | −11.3 | 85% |
| 30 | Mon Mar 1, 7:00 PM ET | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +9.7 | 19% |
| 31 | Sat Mar 6, 12:00 PM ET | NC State #29 | Home · conference | −3.3 | 62% |
Spread is from Virginia's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
18 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thijs De Ridder | PF | 6-9 | SO | Returning | · | 15.6 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 27.7 | 24.0 | 13.8 | 5.5 | 1.5 |
| Jurian Dixon | SG | 6-4 | JR | Transfer | · | 15.9 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 30.4 | 23.8 | 11.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Christian Harmon | SF | 6-6 | SR | Transfer | · | 12.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 27.6 | 21.8 | 9.6 | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| Chance Mallory | PG | 5-10 | SO | Returning | #56 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 24.1 | 21.1 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| Sam Lewis | SG | 6-7 | SR | Returning | · | 10.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 25.4 | 20.5 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| Jan Vide | PG | 6-6 | SR | Transfer | · | 12.1 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 28.7 | 19.8 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Johann Grunloh | C | 7-0 | SO | Returning | · | 7.1 | 5.2 | 0.6 | 21.1 | 18.6 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 0.7 |
| Favour Ibe | C | 7-1 | FR | Recruit | #124 | · | · | · | · | 9.9 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| Elijah Gertrude | SG | 6-4 | JR | Returning | #58 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Owen Odom | PG | 6-1 | SO | Walk-on | · | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Carter Lang | PF | 6-9 | JR | Returning | #209 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Martin Carrere | SF | 6-9 | SO | Returning | · | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Desmond Roberts | SG | 6-4 | JR | Walk-on | · | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Kalu Anya | PF | 6-8 | RS SR | Transfer | · | 6.5 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 27.8 | · | · | · | · |
| Nick Rotter | PG | 6-2 | JR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Nolan Adekunle | SF | 6-7 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Quincy Watson | PG | 5-11 | FR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Silas Barksdale | PF | 6-9 | RS FR | Returning | #127 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.