Atlantic Coast Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 19.3
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tue Nov 3, 7:00 PM ET | Coppin State #364 | Home | −29.6 | >99% |
| 2 | Thu Nov 5, 7:00 PM ET | Mercer #183 | Home | −13.5 | 89% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, 7:00 PM ET | Iowa #31 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Tyson Events Center Bad Boy Mowers Series | +3.8 | 36% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, time TBA | Mount St. Mary's #295 | Home | −18.0 | 95% |
| 5 | Mon Nov 16, time TBA | Richmond #126 | Home | −10.3 | 83% |
| 6 | Fri Nov 20, 3:00 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Neutral at TD Arena The Shriners Children's Charleston Classic | −1.0 | 54% |
| 7 | Sun Nov 22, 3:30 PM ET | Oklahoma State #60 | Neutral at TD Arena The Shriners Children's Charleston Classic | −0.6 | 52% |
| 8 | Fri Nov 27, time TBA | Old Dominion #281 | Home | −17.8 | 95% |
| 9 | Tue Dec 1, 9:00 PM ET | Ole Miss #59 | Home ACC/SEC Men's Challenge | −2.3 | 58% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 5, 4:30 PM ET | West Virginia #51 | Away | +2.2 | 42% |
| 11 | Thu Dec 10, 7:00 PM ET | Maryland Eastern Shore #338 | Home | −20.8 | 97% |
| 12 | Sun Dec 13, time TBA | Radford #269 | Home | −17.4 | 94% |
| 13 | Sat Dec 19, time TBA | UCF #47 | Away | +3.0 | 39% |
| 14 | Mon Dec 21, time TBA | VMI #344 | Home | −22.6 | 98% |
| 15 | Wed Dec 30, 8:00 PM ET | Louisville #9 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +7.2 | 26% |
| 16 | Sat Jan 2, 3:30 PM ET | Wake Forest #72 | Away · conference | −0.4 | 51% |
| 17 | Wed Jan 6, 7:00 PM ET | Notre Dame #74 | Away · conference | −0.4 | 52% |
| 18 | Sat Jan 9, 8:00 PM ET | Boston College #111 | Home · conference | −8.2 | 77% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 16, 12:00 PM ET | SMU #50 | Home · conference | −1.6 | 56% |
| 20 | Wed Jan 20, 7:00 PM ET | Florida State #82 | Away · conference | −1.4 | 55% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 23, 6:00 PM ET | Miami #24 | Home · conference | +3.3 | 38% |
| 22 | Wed Jan 27, 9:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh #83 | Away · conference | −1.5 | 55% |
| 23 | Sat Jan 30, 6:00 PM ET | Virginia #22 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +7.5 | 25% |
| 24 | Tue Feb 2, 8:00 PM ET | Clemson #19 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +3.7 | 37% |
| 25 | Wed Feb 10, 9:00 PM ET | California #94 | Away · conference | −2.6 | 59% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 13, 4:30 PM ET | Stanford #76 | Away · conference | −0.6 | 52% |
| 27 | Wed Feb 17, 7:00 PM ET | NC State #29 | Home · conference | +2.3 | 42% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 20, 12:00 PM ET | Boston College #111 | Away · conference | −4.2 | 65% |
| 29 | Tue Feb 23, 7:00 PM ET | Virginia #22 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +3.5 | 38% |
| 30 | Sat Feb 27, 7:00 PM ET | North Carolina #33 | Home · conference | +1.3 | 45% |
| 31 | Wed Mar 3, 9:00 PM ET | Syracuse #56 | Home · conference | −2.2 | 58% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, 12:00 PM ET | Georgia Tech #112 | Away · conference | −4.6 | 66% |
Spread is from Virginia Tech's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Copeland | PG | 6-2 | SR | Transfer | · | 15.0 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 32.1 | 22.6 | 9.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Ben Hammond | PG | 5-11 | JR | Returning | #226 | 13.2 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 31.5 | 22.5 | 10.3 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Amani Hansberry | PF | 6-8 | SR | Returning | #63 | 14.3 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 30.7 | 22.2 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 |
| Isaiah Elohim | SG | 6-5 | JR | Transfer | #47 | 12.4 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 28.1 | 20.0 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| Butta Johnson | SG | 6-4 | SR | Transfer | · | 6.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 21.1 | 18.8 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Jaylen Curry | PG | 6-1 | SR | Transfer | #215 | 10.1 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 23.8 | 18.4 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Miles Heide | PF | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | · | 5.6 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 19.1 | 15.3 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 0.8 |
| Tyler Johnson | SF | 6-5 | JR | Returning | #192 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 26.2 | 13.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Kuol Atak | PF | 6-9 | SO | Transfer | #114 | 7.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 12.4 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| Musa Sagnia | C | 6-10 | SO | Transfer | · | 2.3 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 12.4 | 11.3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 0.3 |
| SinCere Jones | PF | 6-7 | SO | Returning | #245 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Ned Hull | SG | 6-3 | JR | Transfer | · | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 18.0 | · | · | · | · |
| Eltayeb Eltayeb | SF | 6-8 | FR | Recruit | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| James Caldarella | SG | 6-3 | FR | Recruit | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Solomon Davis | C | 6-11 | RS FR | Returning | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.