Big East Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 22.1
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sun Nov 1, 9:30 AM ET | Notre Dame #74 | Neutral at Palazzo dello Sport Eternal City Tip-Off | −6.8 | 73% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM ET | Holy Cross #328 | Home | −24.5 | 99% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, 7:00 PM ET | La Salle #239 | Home | −19.5 | 96% |
| 4 | Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM ET | Rider #354 | Home | −27.9 | 99% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 17, 7:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh #83 | Away | −5.7 | 70% |
| 6 | Sat Nov 21, 7:00 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Home | +6.2 | 29% |
| 7 | Tue Nov 24, 7:00 PM ET | Coppin State #364 | Home | −33.4 | >99% |
| 8 | Fri Nov 27, 5:00 PM ET | Kansas #14 Top 5 hardest | Away | +4.8 | 33% |
| 9 | Tue Dec 1, time TBA | Temple #131 | Away | −10.5 | 83% |
| 10 | Wed Dec 9, time TBA | Fairleigh Dickinson #325 | Home | −23.6 | 98% |
| 11 | Sat Dec 12, 12:00 PM ET | Wisconsin #41 | Neutral at Xfinity Mobile Arena | −2.3 | 58% |
| 12 | Sat Dec 19, 8:00 PM ET | Creighton #62 | Away · conference | −3.3 | 62% |
| 13 | Tue Dec 22, 6:30 PM ET | Providence #46 | Home · conference | −5.6 | 70% |
| 14 | Tue Dec 29, 7:00 PM ET | Fairleigh Dickinson #325 | Home | −23.6 | 98% |
| 15 | Sun Jan 3, 12:00 PM ET | Georgetown #66 | Away · conference | −3.5 | 62% |
| 16 | Wed Jan 6, 7:00 PM ET | Xavier #71 | Away · conference | −4.4 | 65% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 9, 5:00 PM ET | Marquette #68 | Home · conference | −7.9 | 76% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 12, 6:00 PM ET | Seton Hall #58 | Home · conference | −6.4 | 72% |
| 19 | Fri Jan 15, 6:00 PM ET | Butler #80 | Away · conference | −5.7 | 70% |
| 20 | Tue Jan 19, 6:30 PM ET | Xavier #71 | Home · conference | −8.5 | 78% |
| 21 | Fri Jan 22, 7:00 PM ET | DePaul #78 | Away · conference | −5.2 | 68% |
| 22 | Wed Jan 27, 7:00 PM ET | Creighton #62 | Home · conference | −7.2 | 74% |
| 23 | Wed Feb 3, 7:00 PM ET | UConn #13 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +4.7 | 33% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 6, 12:30 PM ET | St. John's #17 | Home · conference | +0.1 | 50% |
| 25 | Wed Feb 10, 8:00 PM ET | Seton Hall #58 | Away · conference | −2.6 | 59% |
| 26 | Sun Feb 14, 12:00 PM ET | UConn #13 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +0.9 | 47% |
| 27 | Wed Feb 17, 6:30 PM ET | Providence #46 | Away · conference | −1.5 | 55% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 20, 12:00 PM ET | Butler #80 | Home · conference | −9.7 | 81% |
| 29 | Tue Feb 23, 7:00 PM ET | St. John's #17 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +4.2 | 35% |
| 30 | Fri Feb 26, 9:00 PM ET | Marquette #68 | Away · conference | −3.8 | 63% |
| 31 | Wed Mar 3, 7:00 PM ET | DePaul #78 | Home · conference | −9.1 | 80% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, 12:30 PM ET | Georgetown #66 | Home · conference | −7.4 | 75% |
Spread is from Villanova's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
14 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darryl Simmons II | PG | 5-11 | SR | Transfer | · | 16.4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 35.4 | 25.0 | 11.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Tyler Perkins | SG | 6-4 | SR | Returning | · | 13.7 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 29.9 | 23.8 | 11.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 |
| Kwame Evans Jr. | PF | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | #15 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 30.9 | 23.7 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 1.6 |
| Devin Royal | PF | 6-6 | SR | Transfer | #41 | 13.7 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 32.5 | 23.0 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 |
| Jake Fiegen | SG | 6-4 | SR | Transfer | · | 17.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 26.0 | 20.7 | 12.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| Matt Hodge | SF | 6-8 | SO | Returning | #67 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 27.6 | 18.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| Elijah Crawford | PG | 6-3 | JR | Transfer | #99 | 14.1 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 25.8 | 17.7 | 9.3 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| Adam Oumiddoch | SG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #65 | · | · | · | · | 12.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Wade Chiddick | SG | 6-4 | SR | Walk-on | · | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Abdou Samb | PF | 6-8 | RS SR | Transfer | · | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 7.7 | · | · | · | · |
| Brady Muller | SG | 6-4 | RS SR | Transfer | · | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 4.7 | · | · | · | · |
| Carter Fisk | PG | 6-2 | FR | Recruit | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Luigi Suigo | C | 7-3 | FR | International | #289 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Nico Onyekwere | C | 7-1 | RS FR | Returning | #312 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.