Big Ten Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 20.0
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, time TBA | Milwaukee #259 | Home | −19.6 | 96% |
| 2 | Sun Nov 8, time TBA | Wichita State #61 | Neutral at Tahoe Blue Event Center Lake Tahoe Classic | −3.1 | 61% |
| 3 | Wed Nov 11, 11:00 PM ET | California #94 | Away | −5.2 | 68% |
| 4 | Sun Nov 15, time TBA | Arkansas-Pine Bluff #320 | Home | −24.1 | 99% |
| 5 | Thu Nov 19, 11:00 PM ET | Tarleton State #226 | Home | −18.7 | 96% |
| 6 | Sun Nov 22, time TBA | Louisiana #305 | Home | −21.1 | 97% |
| 7 | Wed Nov 25, 4:30 PM ET | South Carolina #100 | Neutral at Acrisure Arena Acrisure Series | −8.0 | 77% |
| 8 | Thu Nov 26, 4:30 PM ET | Utah State #35 | Neutral at Acrisure Arena Acrisure Series | +0.7 | 47% |
| 9 | Wed Dec 2, 10:30 PM ET | Washington #65 | Home · conference | −5.7 | 70% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 5, 4:00 PM ET | Oregon #75 | Away · conference | −3.1 | 61% |
| 11 | Tue Dec 8, 9:30 PM ET | San Diego #179 | Away | −11.8 | 86% |
| 12 | Sun Dec 13, 2:00 PM ET | Texas Tech #8 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Dickies Arena Coast to Coast Challenge | +7.4 | 25% |
| 13 | Sat Dec 19, 4:30 PM ET | Jacksonville #263 | Home | −18.8 | 96% |
| 14 | Tue Dec 22, 10:00 PM ET | Western Michigan #213 | Home | −17.8 | 95% |
| 15 | Wed Dec 30, 6:00 PM ET | Purdue #21 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +5.2 | 32% |
| 16 | Sat Jan 2, 2:00 PM ET | Indiana #38 | Away · conference | +2.1 | 42% |
| 17 | Tue Jan 5, 8:00 PM ET | Maryland #97 | Away · conference | −5.3 | 68% |
| 18 | Fri Jan 8, 7:00 PM ET | Rutgers #95 | Away · conference | −5.2 | 68% |
| 19 | Tue Jan 12, 10:00 PM ET | Michigan State #12 | Home · conference | +3.5 | 37% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 16, 6:00 PM ET | Wisconsin #41 | Home · conference | −2.3 | 58% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 23, 3:00 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +9.0 | 21% |
| 22 | Wed Jan 27, 9:00 PM ET | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +10.0 | 18% |
| 23 | Sat Jan 30, 2:00 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Away · conference | −1.5 | 55% |
| 24 | Wed Feb 3, 10:30 PM ET | Iowa #31 | Home · conference | −0.4 | 51% |
| 25 | Sat Feb 6, 4:00 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Home · conference | −8.2 | 77% |
| 26 | Wed Feb 10, 10:30 PM ET | Washington #65 | Away · conference | −1.5 | 55% |
| 27 | Sat Feb 13, 5:30 PM ET | UCLA #45 | Home · conference | −2.7 | 60% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 20, 3:00 PM ET | Ohio State #30 | Home · conference | −0.3 | 51% |
| 29 | Tue Feb 23, 9:00 PM ET | Nebraska #15 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +7.1 | 26% |
| 30 | Sat Feb 27, 6:00 PM ET | Oregon #75 | Home · conference | −7.3 | 75% |
| 31 | Tue Mar 2, 9:00 PM ET | Penn State #108 | Home · conference | −11.0 | 84% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, 5:30 PM ET | UCLA #45 | Away · conference | +1.4 | 45% |
Spread is from USC's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
14 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Cox | PG | 6-3 | SR | Transfer | · | 17.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 34.1 | 17.3 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Jacob Cofie | PF | 6-10 | JR | Returning | #88 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 30.5 | 15.7 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 |
| Jadis Jones | SF | 6-5 | JR | Transfer | · | 15.3 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 32.9 | 15.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 |
| KJ Lewis | SG | 6-4 | SR | Transfer | #79 | 14.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 30.0 | 15.5 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| Joshua Hughes | PF | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | · | 9.3 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 27.6 | 14.5 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.5 |
| Christian Collins | SF | 6-9 | FR | Recruit | #9 | · | · | · | · | 13.7 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 |
| Isaac Bruns | SG | 6-5 | SR | Transfer | · | 20.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 30.9 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| Eric Reibe | C | 7-1 | SO | Transfer | #29 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 13.8 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 0.5 |
| Adonis Ratliff | PF | 6-11 | FR | Recruit | #22 | · | · | · | · | 11.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| Darius Ratliff | C | 7-0 | FR | Recruit | #33 | · | · | · | · | 10.1 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| Alijah Arenas | SG | 6-6 | SO | Returning | #12 | 14.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 27.6 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Rodney Rice | SG | 6-5 | SR | Returning | #60 | 20.3 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 34.0 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Aaron Hunkin-Claytor | PG | 6-3 | JR | Transfer | · | 6.0 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 28.1 | · | · | · | · |
| Onyeka Joe Agu | C | 6-10 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.