Big Ten Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
31 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 18.5
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 10:00 PM ET | Arizona #6 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at T-Mobile Arena Hall of Fame Series - Las Vegas | +8.2 | 23% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, 10:30 PM ET | North Florida #335 | Home | −23.9 | 98% |
| 3 | Wed Nov 11, time TBA | Arkansas-Pine Bluff #320 | Home | −21.9 | 98% |
| 4 | Mon Nov 16, 10:00 PM ET | Long Beach State #276 | Home | −18.6 | 95% |
| 5 | Wed Nov 18, 10:30 PM ET | Cal State Fullerton #238 | Home | −18.3 | 95% |
| 6 | Sun Nov 22, 7:00 PM ET | Delaware #324 | Home | −20.4 | 97% |
| 7 | Thu Nov 26, 5:00 PM ET | Saint Mary's #55 | Neutral at Jenny Craig Pavilion Rady Children's Invitational | −1.8 | 56% |
| 8 | Tue Dec 1, 10:00 PM ET | Oregon #75 | Home · conference | −6.1 | 71% |
| 9 | Sat Dec 5, 11:30 PM ET | Gonzaga #10 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Honda Center | +6.9 | 27% |
| 10 | Sun Dec 13, 8:00 PM ET | Washington #65 | Away · conference | −0.8 | 53% |
| 11 | Sat Dec 19, 4:30 PM ET | Quinnipiac #193 | Home | −15.2 | 92% |
| 12 | Tue Dec 22, 4:00 PM ET | UC Riverside #268 | Home | −18.0 | 95% |
| 13 | Tue Dec 29, 10:00 PM ET | San Diego State #63 | Home | −4.5 | 66% |
| 14 | Sat Jan 2, 6:00 PM ET | Maryland #97 | Away · conference | −4.3 | 65% |
| 15 | Tue Jan 5, 6:00 PM ET | Rutgers #95 | Away · conference | −4.2 | 65% |
| 16 | Sat Jan 9, 8:00 PM ET | Michigan State #12 | Home · conference | +3.9 | 36% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 16, 3:00 PM ET | Washington #65 | Home · conference | −4.7 | 67% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 19, 10:30 PM ET | Wisconsin #41 | Home · conference | −1.5 | 55% |
| 19 | Fri Jan 22, 9:00 PM ET | Nebraska #15 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +7.3 | 25% |
| 20 | Tue Jan 26, 10:00 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +9.1 | 20% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 30, 12:00 PM ET | Indiana #38 | Away · conference | +2.7 | 40% |
| 22 | Tue Feb 2, 9:00 PM ET | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +9.9 | 18% |
| 23 | Sat Feb 6, time TBA | Iowa #31 | Home · conference | +0.3 | 49% |
| 24 | Tue Feb 9, 10:00 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Home · conference | −7.0 | 74% |
| 25 | Sat Feb 13, 5:30 PM ET | USC #39 | Away · conference | +2.7 | 40% |
| 26 | Wed Feb 17, 11:00 PM ET | Ohio State #30 | Home · conference | +0.4 | 49% |
| 27 | Sun Feb 21, 1:00 PM ET | Purdue #21 | Away · conference | +5.5 | 31% |
| 28 | Wed Feb 24, 8:30 PM ET | Northwestern #64 | Away · conference | −0.7 | 53% |
| 29 | Sat Feb 27, 10:30 PM ET | Penn State #108 | Home · conference | −9.6 | 81% |
| 30 | Wed Mar 3, 10:30 PM ET | Oregon #75 | Away · conference | −2.2 | 58% |
| 31 | Sat Mar 6, 5:30 PM ET | USC #39 | Home · conference | −1.4 | 55% |
Spread is from UCLA's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
14 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Perry | PG | 6-4 | JR | Returning | #29 | 12.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 29.9 | 20.6 | 9.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Jaylen Petty | PG | 6-1 | SO | Transfer | #170 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 30.5 | 19.9 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 1.7 |
| Eric Dailey Jr. | SF | 6-8 | SR | Returning | #55 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 27.6 | 19.5 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 |
| Xavier Booker | C | 6-11 | SR | Returning | #14 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 20.1 | 15.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| Filip Jovic | PF | 6-8 | SO | Transfer | · | 6.3 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 18.3 | 14.7 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 0.6 |
| Sergej Macura | PF | 6-9 | JR | Transfer | · | 5.0 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 18.4 | 13.4 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 0.7 |
| Azavier Robinson | PG | 6-2 | SO | Transfer | #93 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 18.3 | 11.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Nikola Kusturica | SF | 6-9 | FR | International | #104 | · | · | · | · | 10.5 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| Brandon Williams | SF | 6-7 | SR | Returning | #89 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Javonte Floyd | C | 6-9 | FR | Recruit | #278 | · | · | · | · | 8.8 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Eric Freeny | SG | 6-4 | JR | Returning | #141 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Gunars Grinvalds | SF | 6-6 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Joe Philon III | SF | 6-8 | FR | Recruit | #60 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Markell Alston | PG | 6-1 | SO | Returning | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.