Big 12 Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 18.0
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, time TBA | Florida Gulf Coast #271 | Home | −18.3 | 95% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM ET | Yale #106 | Home | −8.7 | 79% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, 7:00 PM ET | South Alabama #145 | Home | −12.0 | 86% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, time TBA | Georgia Southern #301 | Home | −20.4 | 97% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 17, time TBA | Mississippi State #88 | Home | −7.4 | 75% |
| 6 | Fri Nov 20, time TBA | Vanderbilt #18 Top 5 hardest | Away | +7.4 | 25% |
| 7 | Thu Nov 26, 1:30 PM ET | Boston College #111 | Neutral at State Farm Field House ESPN Events Invitational - Magic Bracket | −7.3 | 75% |
| 8 | Fri Nov 27, 7:00 PM ET | Georgia #40 | Neutral at State Farm Field House ESPN Events Invitational - Magic Bracket | +1.6 | 44% |
| 9 | Tue Dec 1, time TBA | Jacksonville #263 | Home | −17.0 | 94% |
| 10 | Sun Dec 6, time TBA | American University #187 | Home | −14.4 | 90% |
| 11 | Sat Dec 12, 12:00 PM ET | Indiana #38 | Away Bad Boy Mowers Series | +3.7 | 37% |
| 12 | Wed Dec 16, time TBA | Florida International #185 | Home | −15.2 | 92% |
| 13 | Sat Dec 19, time TBA | Virginia Tech #52 | Home | −3.0 | 61% |
| 14 | Tue Dec 22, time TBA | Towson #170 | Home | −13.4 | 89% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 2, time TBA | Utah #98 | Home · conference | −8.0 | 77% |
| 16 | Wed Jan 6, 9:00 PM ET | Arizona #6 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +11.7 | 14% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 9, time TBA | Arizona State #69 | Away · conference | −0.2 | 51% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 13, 8:00 PM ET | Baylor #43 | Home · conference | −0.9 | 53% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 16, 2:00 PM ET | Kansas #14 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +8.8 | 21% |
| 20 | Tue Jan 19, time TBA | Colorado #92 | Home · conference | −7.6 | 76% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 23, 2:00 PM ET | Iowa State #7 | Home · conference | +7.1 | 26% |
| 22 | Sat Jan 30, 4:00 PM ET | Texas Tech #8 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +10.9 | 16% |
| 23 | Wed Feb 3, 8:00 PM ET | West Virginia #51 | Home · conference | −2.6 | 59% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 6, 5:30 PM ET | Baylor #43 | Away · conference | +3.3 | 38% |
| 25 | Wed Feb 10, 8:00 PM ET | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +9.4 | 20% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 13, time TBA | Cincinnati #25 | Away · conference | +6.7 | 27% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 16, 7:00 PM ET | West Virginia #51 | Away · conference | +1.4 | 45% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 20, time TBA | Texas Tech #8 | Home · conference | +6.8 | 27% |
| 29 | Wed Feb 24, 8:30 PM ET | Oklahoma State #60 | Away · conference | +0.7 | 48% |
| 30 | Sat Feb 27, 12:00 PM ET | BYU #27 | Home · conference | +1.9 | 43% |
| 31 | Wed Mar 3, time TBA | Kansas State #101 | Home · conference | −9.1 | 80% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, 4:00 PM ET | TCU #42 | Away · conference | +3.4 | 38% |
Spread is from UCF's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Walker | SF | 6-6 | SO | Transfer | · | 18.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 34.2 | 24.8 | 12.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 |
| Cayden Vasko | SG | 6-6 | SR | Transfer | · | 10.4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 31.8 | 23.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Isaiah Malone | PF | 6-9 | SR | Transfer | · | 10.5 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 22.5 | 19.6 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 0.6 |
| Dior Johnson | PG | 6-3 | SR | Transfer | #49 | 24.0 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 26.3 | 19.2 | 14.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Churchill Abass | C | 6-9 | SR | Transfer | · | 8.4 | 5.7 | 0.5 | 20.1 | 18.2 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 |
| John Bol | C | 7-2 | JR | Returning | #55 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 0.3 | 18.8 | 16.6 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 0.4 |
| Carmelo Pacheco | SG | 6-5 | SR | Returning | · | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 15.5 | 13.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Jason Asemota | SF | 6-8 | JR | Transfer | #46 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.4 |
| Ladarius Givan | PF | 6-10 | FR | Recruit | #207 | · | · | · | · | 11.0 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 |
| Mister Dean | SG | 6-6 | RS SO | Transfer | · | 10.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 17.3 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Elijah Hulsewe | C | 7-0 | SR | Returning | · | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| Arturo Dean | PG | 5-11 | RS SR | Transfer | · | 7.6 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 24.4 | · | · | · | · |
| Dylan Mann | PF | 6-8 | FR | Recruit | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Jahda Swann | SG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #181 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Tanner Jones | PG | 6-4 | RS FR | Returning | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.