Southeastern Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
31 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 21.5
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 9:00 PM ET | Chicago State #342 | Home | −27.9 | 99% |
| 2 | Thu Nov 5, time TBA | Gardner-Webb #362 | Home | −32.7 | >99% |
| 3 | Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM ET | Grambling #326 | Home | −26.6 | 99% |
| 4 | Sun Nov 15, 3:00 PM ET | Baylor #43 | Neutral at Frost Bank Center San Antonio Shootout | −3.9 | 64% |
| 5 | Thu Nov 19, time TBA | Southern Utah #217 | Home | −21.4 | 97% |
| 6 | Sun Nov 22, time TBA | Southern Indiana #343 | Home | −28.5 | >99% |
| 7 | Thu Nov 26, 2:30 PM ET | Georgetown #66 | Neutral at Jenny Craig Pavilion Rady Children's Invitational | −6.8 | 73% |
| 8 | Tue Dec 1, 9:00 PM ET | Louisville #9 Top 5 hardest | Away ACC/SEC Men's Challenge | +5.4 | 31% |
| 9 | Tue Dec 8, 8:00 PM ET | Jackson State #357 | Home | −31.8 | >99% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 12, 5:30 PM ET | Miami #24 | Neutral at Toyota Center (Houston) Houston Hoopfest | −0.5 | 52% |
| 11 | Wed Dec 16, 9:00 PM ET | Memphis #89 | Home | −12.6 | 87% |
| 12 | Mon Dec 21, time TBA | Prairie View A&M #280 | Home | −24.1 | 99% |
| 13 | Tue Dec 29, time TBA | East Texas A&M #248 | Home | −22.2 | 98% |
| 14 | Sat Jan 2, 6:00 PM ET | Florida #4 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +2.8 | 40% |
| 15 | Tue Jan 5, 9:00 PM ET | Georgia #40 | Away · conference | −1.5 | 55% |
| 16 | Sat Jan 9, 12:00 PM ET | Ole Miss #59 | Away · conference | −4.0 | 64% |
| 17 | Tue Jan 12, 9:00 PM ET | Auburn #36 | Home · conference | −4.9 | 67% |
| 18 | Sat Jan 16, 12:00 PM ET | Oklahoma #32 | Home · conference | −4.5 | 66% |
| 19 | Tue Jan 19, 9:00 PM ET | LSU #53 | Away · conference | −3.8 | 63% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 23, 6:00 PM ET | Arkansas #16 | Home · conference | −1.2 | 54% |
| 21 | Wed Jan 27, 8:00 PM ET | South Carolina #100 | Away · conference | −9.0 | 79% |
| 22 | Sat Jan 30, 12:00 PM ET | Kentucky #26 | Home · conference | −2.6 | 59% |
| 23 | Sat Feb 6, 12:00 PM ET | Florida #4 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +7.0 | 26% |
| 24 | Tue Feb 9, 7:00 PM ET | Alabama #23 | Home · conference | −2.5 | 59% |
| 25 | Sat Feb 13, 2:00 PM ET | Vanderbilt #18 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +2.2 | 42% |
| 26 | Wed Feb 17, 9:00 PM ET | Texas A&M #37 | Home · conference | −5.5 | 69% |
| 27 | Sat Feb 20, 8:30 PM ET | Oklahoma #32 | Away · conference | −0.4 | 52% |
| 28 | Wed Feb 24, 7:00 PM ET | Mississippi State #88 | Away · conference | −8.1 | 77% |
| 29 | Sat Feb 27, time TBA | Tennessee #11 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +0.6 | 48% |
| 30 | Tue Mar 2, 7:00 PM ET | Missouri #48 | Home · conference | −7.0 | 74% |
| 31 | Sat Mar 6, 8:00 PM ET | Texas A&M #37 | Away · conference | −1.2 | 54% |
Spread is from Texas's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Johnson | PG | 6-2 | SO | Transfer | #263 | 16.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 30.6 | 22.0 | 13.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| David Punch | PF | 6-7 | JR | Transfer | #106 | 14.1 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 29.7 | 21.3 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.6 |
| Matas Vokietaitis | C | 7-0 | JR | Returning | · | 15.6 | 7.1 | 0.6 | 26.0 | 19.9 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 0.6 |
| Mikey Lewis | SG | 6-3 | JR | Transfer | #102 | 13.9 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 26.8 | 19.8 | 10.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Elyjah Freeman | SF | 6-8 | JR | Transfer | · | 9.2 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 26.8 | 19.1 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 |
| Marcus Spears Jr. | PF | 6-9 | FR | Recruit | #7 | · | · | · | · | 17.5 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 |
| Austin Goosby | SG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #27 | · | · | · | · | 14.4 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Amari Evans | SG | 6-5 | SO | Transfer | #68 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| Bo Ogden | SG | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #53 | · | · | · | · | 13.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| Joe Sterling | SG | 6-4 | FR | Recruit | #126 | · | · | · | · | 9.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Anthon McDermott | SG | 6-5 | JR | Returning | #288 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Coleman Elkins | C | 6-11 | FR | Recruit | #305 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| John Clark | PF | 6-9 | SO | Returning | #62 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Lewis Obiorah | C | 7-1 | SO | Returning | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Mantas Laurencikas | PG | 6-4 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.