Big 12 Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
29 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 21.8
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 7:00 PM ET | Jackson State #357 | Home | −35.2 | >99% |
| 2 | Thu Nov 5, time TBA | Bethune-Cookman #256 | Home | −26.1 | 99% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, 8:00 PM ET | Illinois #5 | Home | −1.4 | 55% |
| 4 | Sat Nov 14, time TBA | Stonehill #334 | Home | −30.4 | >99% |
| 5 | Wed Nov 18, time TBA | New Orleans #207 | Home | −24.3 | 99% |
| 6 | Tue Nov 24, 8:00 PM ET | Louisville #9 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Michelob ULTRA Arena Players Era Sixteen | −0.6 | 52% |
| 7 | Tue Dec 8, time TBA | Omaha #287 | Home | −26.8 | 99% |
| 8 | Sun Dec 13, 2:00 PM ET | USC #39 | Neutral at Dickies Arena Coast to Coast Challenge | −7.4 | 75% |
| 9 | Tue Dec 15, time TBA | Incarnate Word #223 | Home | −23.8 | 98% |
| 10 | Mon Dec 21, time TBA | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Madison Square Garden | +3.8 | 36% |
| 11 | Mon Dec 28, time TBA | Mississippi Valley State #360 | Home | −35.2 | >99% |
| 12 | Sat Jan 2, 12:00 PM ET | Cincinnati #25 | Away · conference | −2.3 | 58% |
| 13 | Wed Jan 6, 8:00 PM ET | Baylor #43 | Home · conference | −9.7 | 81% |
| 14 | Sat Jan 9, 2:00 PM ET | TCU #42 | Away · conference | −5.4 | 69% |
| 15 | Tue Jan 12, 10:00 PM ET | Arizona State #69 | Home · conference | −13.2 | 88% |
| 16 | Sat Jan 16, 8:00 PM ET | Iowa State #7 | Home · conference | −1.8 | 56% |
| 17 | Tue Jan 19, 7:00 PM ET | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +4.6 | 34% |
| 18 | Fri Jan 22, 8:00 PM ET | Arizona #6 | Home · conference | −1.8 | 56% |
| 19 | Wed Jan 27, 9:00 PM ET | Oklahoma State #60 | Away · conference | −8.6 | 78% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 30, 4:00 PM ET | UCF #47 | Home · conference | −10.9 | 84% |
| 21 | Tue Feb 2, 11:00 PM ET | Colorado #92 | Away · conference | −12.1 | 86% |
| 22 | Sat Feb 6, 12:00 PM ET | Kansas #14 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | −0.2 | 51% |
| 23 | Sat Feb 13, 6:00 PM ET | West Virginia #51 | Home · conference | −10.6 | 83% |
| 24 | Mon Feb 15, 9:00 PM ET | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +0.7 | 47% |
| 25 | Sat Feb 20, time TBA | UCF #47 | Away · conference | −6.8 | 73% |
| 26 | Wed Feb 24, 7:00 PM ET | Kansas State #101 | Away · conference | −13.8 | 89% |
| 27 | Sat Feb 27, time TBA | Cincinnati #25 | Home · conference | −6.3 | 72% |
| 28 | Tue Mar 2, 11:00 PM ET | Utah #98 | Away · conference | −12.3 | 87% |
| 29 | Fri Mar 5, 9:00 PM ET | BYU #27 | Home · conference | −7.1 | 74% |
Spread is from Texas Tech's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
14 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Davis | PG | 6-3 | SR | Transfer | #211 | 20.1 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 37.9 | 24.5 | 12.3 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn | PG | 6-1 | SR | Transfer | #117 | 20.7 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 34.1 | 24.5 | 15.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| Darrion Williams | SF | 6-6 | SR | Transfer | · | 14.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 30.0 | 23.1 | 11.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 |
| JT Toppin | PF | 6-9 | SR | Returning | #140 | 21.8 | 10.8 | 2.1 | 34.8 | 22.9 | 15.3 | 7.1 | 1.5 |
| Jamichael Stillwell | PF | 6-8 | SR | Transfer | · | 11.6 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 28.4 | 20.9 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 1.7 |
| Damarion Dennis | PG | 6-1 | JR | Transfer | · | 11.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 23.9 | 19.5 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| DaKari Spear | SG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #34 | · | · | · | · | 13.9 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Josiah Moseley | PF | 6-8 | JR | Returning | #72 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 13.8 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 0.5 |
| Amari Barrett | SG | 6-4 | FR | Recruit | · | · | · | · | · | 10.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Marial Akuentok | C | 6-11 | SO | Returning | #248 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| Donovan Atwell | SG | 6-5 | SR | Returning | #301 | 13.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 34.7 | · | · | · | · |
| Bassala Bagayoko | C | 6-10 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| LaTrell Hoover | C | 6-11 | RS FR | Returning | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Trey Hall | SF | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #372 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.