Big 12 Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
30 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 18.6
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, time TBA | Lindenwood #245 | Home | −19.5 | 96% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, time TBA | Southern #300 | Home | −21.2 | 97% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, time TBA | UL Monroe #346 | Home | −25.9 | 99% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, time TBA | Milwaukee #259 | Home | −18.7 | 96% |
| 5 | Thu Nov 19, 8:00 PM ET | Texas A&M #37 | Home | −1.7 | 56% |
| 6 | Tue Nov 24, 3:00 PM ET | Miami #24 | Neutral at T-Mobile Arena Players Era Sixteen | +3.2 | 39% |
| 7 | Sat Dec 5, 2:00 PM ET | Notre Dame #74 | Away | −2.6 | 59% |
| 8 | Tue Dec 8, time TBA | Alabama State #313 | Home | −22.5 | 98% |
| 9 | Sat Dec 12, 4:30 PM ET | Clemson #19 | Home | +1.6 | 44% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 19, time TBA | Holy Cross #328 | Home | −22.9 | 98% |
| 11 | Tue Dec 22, time TBA | Houston Christian #309 | Home | −20.8 | 97% |
| 12 | Tue Dec 29, time TBA | Oral Roberts #318 | Home | −22.2 | 98% |
| 13 | Sat Jan 2, 8:00 PM ET | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +11.8 | 14% |
| 14 | Tue Jan 5, 8:00 PM ET | Arizona State #69 | Home · conference | −5.7 | 70% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 9, 2:00 PM ET | Texas Tech #8 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +5.4 | 31% |
| 16 | Tue Jan 12, 6:30 PM ET | Cincinnati #25 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +5.2 | 32% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 16, 8:00 PM ET | Kansas State #101 | Away · conference | −6.0 | 71% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 19, 9:30 PM ET | Baylor #43 | Home · conference | −2.3 | 58% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 23, 4:00 PM ET | Oklahoma State #60 | Away · conference | −0.7 | 53% |
| 20 | Wed Jan 27, 7:00 PM ET | BYU #27 | Home · conference | +0.5 | 48% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 30, time TBA | Colorado #92 | Home · conference | −8.8 | 79% |
| 22 | Sat Feb 6, 9:00 PM ET | Arizona State #69 | Away · conference | −1.5 | 55% |
| 23 | Mon Feb 8, 9:00 PM ET | Arizona #6 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +10.1 | 18% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 13, 8:30 PM ET | Oklahoma State #60 | Home · conference | −5.1 | 68% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 16, time TBA | Utah #98 | Home · conference | −9.2 | 80% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 20, 2:00 PM ET | BYU #27 | Away · conference | +4.7 | 33% |
| 27 | Wed Feb 24, time TBA | Kansas #14 | Home · conference | +3.2 | 39% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 27, 5:30 PM ET | Iowa State #7 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +9.7 | 19% |
| 29 | Wed Mar 3, 5:00 PM ET | West Virginia #51 | Away · conference | +0.1 | 50% |
| 30 | Sat Mar 6, 4:00 PM ET | UCF #47 | Home · conference | −3.4 | 62% |
Spread is from TCU's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Sykes | SG | 6-4 | SO | Transfer | · | 19.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 32.9 | 28.1 | 15.2 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| Brock Harding | PG | 6-0 | SR | Returning | #163 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 31.7 | 27.3 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 5.0 |
| Xavier Edmonds | PF | 6-8 | SR | Returning | · | 12.7 | 6.5 | 1.2 | 22.8 | 26.7 | 15.3 | 7.5 | 1.5 |
| Micah Robinson | SF | 6-6 | JR | Returning | #82 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 26.9 | 25.4 | 11.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 |
| DJ Thomas | PF | 6-9 | SO | Transfer | · | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 16.7 | 19.6 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 |
| Luke Bamgboye | PF | 6-10 | JR | Transfer | #133 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 16.8 | 14.4 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 0.6 |
| Drew McElroy | PG | 6-2 | SR | Walk-on | · | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Tanner Toolson | SG | 6-5 | SR | Returning | · | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 21.0 | · | · | · | · |
| Gavin Murphy | PG | 5-11 | JR | Transfer | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Jack Wegman | PG | 6-0 | FR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Milos Sojic | PF | 6-10 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Ricards Aizpurs | SG | 6-6 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Ryan Hunt | C | 7-0 | JR | Transfer | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Sam Fleming | SF | 6-7 | FR | Recruit | #190 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Trent Lincoln | PG | 6-3 | JR | Transfer | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.