Atlantic Coast Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 19.4
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, time TBA | Southern #300 | Home | −19.7 | 96% |
| 2 | Thu Nov 5, time TBA | VMI #344 | Home | −23.5 | 98% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, time TBA | Prairie View A&M #280 | Home | −18.9 | 96% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM ET | Ball State #273 | Home | −17.1 | 94% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 17, time TBA | Oral Roberts #318 | Home | −20.8 | 97% |
| 6 | Fri Nov 20, 8:00 PM ET | South Alabama #145 | Home | −11.5 | 85% |
| 7 | Wed Nov 25, 7:00 PM ET | Utah State #35 | Neutral at Acrisure Arena Acrisure Series | +2.8 | 40% |
| 8 | Thu Nov 26, 7:00 PM ET | LSU #53 | Neutral at Acrisure Arena Acrisure Series | −0.5 | 52% |
| 9 | Tue Dec 1, time TBA | Stephen F. Austin #127 | Home | −10.9 | 84% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 5, 5:30 PM ET | DePaul #78 | Away | −1.3 | 55% |
| 11 | Tue Dec 8, time TBA | UTSA #329 | Home | −22.7 | 98% |
| 12 | Sat Dec 12, 1:30 PM ET | Minnesota #87 | Neutral at Comerica Center | −4.2 | 65% |
| 13 | Sat Dec 19, 3:30 PM ET | UNLV #90 | Neutral at Mortgage Matchup Center Hall of Fame Series - Phoenix | −5.0 | 67% |
| 14 | Tue Dec 22, 8:30 PM ET | Oklahoma #32 | Home | +0.9 | 47% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 2, 6:00 PM ET | Virginia #22 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +7.2 | 26% |
| 16 | Tue Jan 5, 7:00 PM ET | Wake Forest #72 | Home · conference | −5.0 | 68% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 9, 2:15 PM ET | Louisville #9 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +6.9 | 26% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 12, 9:00 PM ET | NC State #29 | Away · conference | +6.2 | 29% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 16, 12:00 PM ET | Virginia Tech #52 | Away · conference | +1.6 | 44% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 23, 4:30 PM ET | Georgia Tech #112 | Home · conference | −9.5 | 81% |
| 21 | Tue Jan 26, 7:00 PM ET | North Carolina #33 | Away · conference | +5.1 | 32% |
| 22 | Sat Jan 30, 12:30 PM ET | Notre Dame #74 | Away · conference | −0.9 | 53% |
| 23 | Wed Feb 3, 8:00 PM ET | California #94 | Home · conference | −7.3 | 75% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 6, 8:00 PM ET | Stanford #76 | Home · conference | −5.2 | 68% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 9, 9:00 PM ET | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +11.2 | 16% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 13, 12:00 PM ET | Louisville #9 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +11.2 | 15% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 16, 7:00 PM ET | Boston College #111 | Away · conference | −4.8 | 67% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 20, 2:15 PM ET | Syracuse #56 | Home · conference | −2.7 | 60% |
| 29 | Tue Feb 23, 10:00 PM ET | Clemson #19 | Home · conference | +3.3 | 38% |
| 30 | Sat Feb 27, 12:00 PM ET | Georgia Tech #112 | Away · conference | −5.1 | 68% |
| 31 | Tue Mar 2, 7:00 PM ET | Miami #24 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +7.2 | 26% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, 6:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh #83 | Home · conference | −6.0 | 71% |
Spread is from SMU's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rowan Brumbaugh | PG | 6-4 | SR | Transfer | #87 | 19.2 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 36.1 | 25.8 | 13.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| David Terrell Jr. | PG | 6-4 | SR | Transfer | · | 13.5 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 32.8 | 23.3 | 9.6 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Oziyah Sellers | SG | 6-5 | SR | Transfer | #143 | 10.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 28.6 | 22.7 | 9.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Johan Munch | PF | 6-11 | JR | Transfer | · | 7.9 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 21.0 | 16.8 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 0.8 |
| Jaden Toombs | C | 6-10 | SO | Returning | #38 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 20.0 | 15.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 0.9 |
| Jermaine O'Neal Jr. | SF | 6-5 | SO | Returning | #89 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 14.9 | 12.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| Jaylin Stewart | SF | 6-7 | SR | Transfer | #61 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 16.3 | 12.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Nic Codie | PF | 6-8 | JR | Transfer | #64 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 15.9 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Nigel Walls | PF | 6-10 | SO | Returning | #69 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| Niccolo Kalischer-Stork | PG | 6-2 | SO | Walk-on | · | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Jacob Patrick | SG | 6-6 | JR | Transfer | · | 7.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 20.3 | · | · | · | · |
| Gehrig Normand | SG | 6-6 | JR | Transfer | #82 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.0 | · | · | · | · |
| Billy White III | SF | 6-8 | RS FR | Returning | #119 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Cameron Lomax | PG | 6-1 | FR | Recruit | #131 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Jakub Szumert | PF | 6-9 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.